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Widestrides NFL Picks Week 6

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  • Widestrides NFL Picks Week 6

    Leans and Discussion first. Final picks on Sunday.

    Redskins +1.5 and under 47.5. Eagles in shambles even though they need to win. Skins off a bye and it will be like their Super Bowl as they could effectively knock the Eagles out of the race by pinning a 5th loss on them. Also revenge game from the 59-28 drubbing Vick and the Eagles humiliated them with on national TV last year. Skins will be rested. Vick and Co. battered and bruised. Orakpo, Fletcher and Landry will be looking to lay the wood on Vick. Still, Vick may be good for some points and Shanahan is just a grinder and there is the Rex factor. I can certainly see someone taking the Eagles. They just HAVE to win, right? Even if the Skins play inspired, the Skins don't have a great offense with Rex, and the Eagles with their playmakers could score 14 in the last quarter to snatch it. Vick extends plays. You have him - and then you don't. Under played based on Shanahan conservative nature and very good Skins D.


    Panthers +4 and Falcons/Panthers over 50.5. Cam will be able to continue to get more yards and points against that sorry Falcons D and Matty Ice and Co. should be able to get points against the banged up Panthers D. But Falcon ball control or that off game from Cam that everyone keeps expecting could keep it under. 51 is an important #. Early indications are that it will drop under 51. That may be good for me, but it also is a warning that bettors are going under. Question is, WHICH bettors? Smart ones or dumb ones?

    Ravens/Texans under 46. Harbaugh wanted to open it up more, but he saw how that backfired against the Jets as Flacco was whacko and almost kept the Jets in it. Harbaugh will go back to grinding it out. Texans without Andre again. Now also without their best defensive player in Mario Williams. I suppose that has folks thinking over.

    Texans + 9 at Ravens. Game opened at Ravens -7 and went to -9! I kinda like the Texans and the points, based on a grind it out win by the Ravens. But that ball-hawking D of theirs scares me and also gives more credence to the over. Hmmm? May not go with anything from this game.

    Bucs Saints under 49. Saints on their THIRD road game as a favorite. Another outdoor grass field. Saints O is great but their D is not very good at all. Tampa a little better than average on both sides. I'm too scared to go against Brees and Sproles so I would lean under.

    Bengals -7 vs Colts. I like Cinci at home if I could get under -7. Cinci has the #1 D in the NFL! Can't see Curtis Painter doing that well in Cinci. Home crowd getting excited about their team. Colts OL and DL and LBs are a MASH unit. Decimated.

    Raiders -6.5 vs Browns. Another Al Davis ceremony and pump job, this time in Oakland. What's to like about Cleveland? Their O has been struggling. Everyone has a man-crush on Peyton Hillis, but he's not 100% and the Raiders are big and strong and got their Bully-MoJo back. I even like Jason Campbell now. They've got some playmakers. Was -5.5. Now -6.5! Hope it doesn't go to -7 or I'd have to step aside.

    Steelers/Jax under 41? A grind it out, conservative game by the Steelers? Not so crazy about this one any more.

    Pats/Cowboys under 55.5. Pats found their running game and it helps their D stay off the field. Just hope Romo doesn't aid the over cause with TDs and INTs and fumbles! Miles Austin is back, but is he 100%? Is Dez Bryant healthy? Big ?s for big D.

    Lions -4 vs SF and under 46. Alex Smith is no Jay Cutler back there in the pocket, but he will have better protection. Still, I think the Lions may be able to score more against the SF D than the Bears' D. SF will run, run, run so that should keep the clock running and the points down.

    Bears -3 vs Minnesota. Cutler was pretty impressive hanging in there against the Lions pass rush. And the Bears' D should be able to stuff AP and McNabb in Chicago. If the Bears had a decent OL, they would be contenders.



    Last edited by widestrides; 10-14-2011, 10:47 PM.

  • #2
    like some, not on same page as some. Got a lot (all) unders there. I'll probably write mine up in the morning. Fighting my eyelids to stay open.

    But wanted to say I enjoy these writeups and will be checking back to see what you settle on. Good luck with whatever that may be.

    Comment


    • #3
      I think I'd lean towards them all except NE/Dal UN 55.5

      Comment


      • #4
        Thanks for the feedback. Don't be shy to warn me of any pitfalls! Tried to look to unders this week as overs have been hitting at 62% this year. That can't last. Books lose to the Public on overs.

        Comment


        • #5
          Locking in for now before the lines move against me:

          Bears -1
          Raiders -6.5
          Texans +9
          Giants -3
          Lions -4
          Redskins +3!
          Lions/Niners under 46
          Ravens/Texans under 45
          Saints/Bucs under 49.5

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by widestrides View Post
            Locking in for now before the lines move against me:

            Bears -1
            Raiders -6.5
            Texans +9
            Giants -3
            Lions -4
            Redskins +3!
            Lions/Niners under 46
            Ravens/Texans under 45
            Saints/Bucs under 49.5
            Add:
            Panthers +4.5
            Eagles/Redskins under 47.5
            Cowboys/Pats under 55.5

            Comment


            • #7
              Hedging my Texans pick with Ravens -7. Not sure why that line move.


              Will also hedge my Giants pick by catching the Bills when it goes to +3.5, or buying it. Currently high juice for the Giants at -3.


              Also adding Bengals at -6. Line move.


              Final Card


              Texans +9
              Ravens -7
              Giants -3
              Bills +3.5
              Lions -4
              Bengals -6
              Panthers +4.5
              Raiders -6.5
              Redskins +3!
              Bears -1
              Lions/Niners under 46
              Ravens/Texans under 45
              Saints/Bucs under 49.5
              Eagles/Redskins under 47.5
              Cowboys/Pats under 55.5

              Comment


              • #8
                way to hit that bengals. Man that D touchdown killed me but hey, it helped you so that's good.
                ANd way to hedge that g-men/bills bet. Played it just right.
                good luck in the afternoon.

                Comment


                • #9
                  10-4-1 today if Bears don't blow it. 5-0 on Unders this week! Unders were 9-3 today counting the Bears over tonight. I knew that 62% over trend couldn't last.

                  32-14 (70%) last 3 weeks.

                  35-23 (60%) for the season.

                  Still can't pick that one special one for the GOW Contest. 2-4 there as I took the Skins this week.

                  And got off to a bad start in the Mock Hilton Contest and rank in the middle of the pack there.

                  GL
                  Last edited by widestrides; 10-16-2011, 10:16 PM.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    still did a great job. I muffed my GOW this week and dropped in the hilton. Looks like I'll be in 2nd by 0.5 going 2-3 this week.
                    Just couldn't pick em this weekend and nothing felt right after the games started. Saints and indy killed me. Saints could have won (on a tease +3 and another -0.5) and cincy getting that garbage defensive td was the worst.

                    Oh well, regroup and do it all over again next week.

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