Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

Taxman's Take on NFL ~ Week 6

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • Taxman's Take on NFL ~ Week 6

    Word of caution, this is my even week, (2-3-1), (9-0-0) on odd weeks (11-3-1 YTD)

    Some more interesting trends/points of view for this week.

    These next 2 picks are based on results from the last week.

    DETROIT -4: I am really a big fan of Lions, impressive D-line, solid QB, and Megatron! Alex Smith will have a much diffiult time this week. But here is a trend to ponder, teams that won by 45 or more points (SF) are 0-3 SU/ATS as a road dog the following week going back to 1979.

    TAMPA BAY +7: Yes, I know this a hard selection to swallow, but that is how you win in this enviroment. This line opened up as Tampa Bay +4.5, and right now it's Buccs +7, we are getting extreme value here. A couple of thing are driving up the point spread. Tampa Bay was shelled by SF last week. Teams that lose by 45 points or more are 9-3-1 ATS the following week, but if they go home the following week, they are 7-0-1 ATS!!! Talk about a major bounce back!!

  • #2
    I am allover TB too. Good spot.

    Comment


    • #3
      Those aren't very big samplings on your trends.

      I like Detroit for the Alex Smith reasons.

      Tampa is a tough one. Saints on their 3rd roadie in a row but none of them have been long distance. Legarette Blount is out. Tampa's D got rolled by Detroit in Tampa and Brees and Co. are better. But Saints D is not very good.

      How about this trend for Tampa with a much bigger sampling:

      underdogs after a road loss of more than 30 points are 70-29 ATS.
      third straight away after at least one win: 24-41 ATS.

      GL

      Comment

      Working...
      X