MIA/NYJ MNF Thread

[Taxman]

What's your take on the game tonight?

Here's my thoughts:

Home team favored by 7 or more are 23-2 SU, 15-9-1 ATS L 25 (that also includes the 3-0 Pit win a couple of years ago on a crappy resodded field).

NYJ is coming off 3 straight road games, which they lost SU/ATS. MIA is coming off a bye and it's their 3rd straight road game.

MIA lost all 4 games SU/ATS.

MIA beat NYJ last 3 times @ NYJ, triple revenge!!

Matt Moore starts tonight, servicable QB, 7-6 SU, was on a monster ATS roll in 2007 & 2009 as Carolina put him in at the end of season both times and capitalized on the value. He was 1-4 SU/ATS LY w. Carolina.


I believe the Jets are going to come out and prove a point tonight that they aren't as crappy as they have showed lately. Factor in the distraction of the Brandon Marshall issue of self-attention, I can see the Jets winning this game by 10 or more.

Thoughts/comments??

[laxsfo99]

Majority of the betting public agree with you, even though line is holding at -7 NY Jets.

FWIW, have observed the following late this afternoon (EST):

@caribe 81% on the Jets
@ Scores and Odds 85% on the Jets
@ Pregame 88% on the Jets

Last Saturday, public won big (90% plus) on Alabama, OK State, and Stanford while yesterday they got creamed on the Lions.

Good luck with your play.


laxsfo99

[resteasy]

Hard one. Jets are 2-0 at home. Blew out the jags and just edged the cowboys. Eas thinking possible teasers but not sure which way to go. Ov 34.5 or un 48.5. Jets pick or find +14. Really see it fitting all of those is my issue.
Anyone leaning a certain way?

[dragon1952]

Things don't look real rosy for Miami right now. 0-4, back-up QB, coach on his way to being fired possibly, Brandon Marshall complaining and on the road against a pissed off team that has lost 3 in a row.
The Jets HC had stated prior to NE that they were going back to the run-based offense and it seemed to hold true with half of the plays being rushes. Prior to that it had been heavily skewed towards passing except for the Jacksonville game.
I just have a feeling this will be a lower scoring, defensive game with lots of running and I would not be surprised to see Miami cover the 7.5 pts. and see the total come in under 41.5, but I would be surprised to see the Jets lose I think.
Not sure what I'll do yet but it will likely be a 7 pt teaser at -130 taking the Jets -1/2 and UN 48.5 (I got burned by 1/2 pt last night doing this with Chicago but there was some weird scoring in that game) and maybe even Miami +14.5 UN 48.5 and hope to win both ways.
I don't think either defense is as bad as the stats show and I think they both come to play tonight.
My best wild-ass guess,
NY Jets 23
Miami 16

[resteasy]

Well dragon looking that way take the jets pick and under then another jets pick with miami +14
?

[dragon1952]

huh? :^ )

[resteasy]

you can tease and take the first option you have there which is jets at -.5 and under 48.5
then another option instead of miami and under again you can do miami at +14.5 and jets -.5

that'd saying Jets win but not by more than 14 with no dependency of total score.
It's another option and would fit into your final score and would keep you away from picking the under twice in case you didn't like that.
Just throwing that out there.

[dragon1952]

Oh, I see....my book doesn't allow that and I don't think I've ever seen one that does.

[resteasy]

Oh. My buddy tried up to the point of confirming at galaxysports and it let him that far but he didn't place it.

Anyhow. Both teams typically go over 35 combined with opponent. I may do an over tease 34.5 with jets pickem. Not 100% just yet

[garister]

I saw a stupid trend that winless teams are 22-3 ATS after a bye, but the Lambs didn't cover yesterday, so that trend doesnt mean much to me.

Jets are not in a triple revenge situation though, they beat Miami on 9/26/10 31-23 first meeting last year.

I see that Miami has come with 9 points of the jets the last 6 games. I had to go all the way back to december of 2007 before Jets handled them easily.

with Moore getting his first start and their offense already struggling I dont see them scoring more than 2 TDs and thats a reach. Their main WR could be out sometime durring the 2nd quarter that leaves a whole half with out a deep threat shrinking the field for jets D to cover.
Jets are putting more effort into the running game keep the clock running.

I will play the under 41 and a small play on Miami +9 on 5dimes.


good luck everyone.

[dragon1952]

I've played Mia +14.5/UN 48.5 already. I'm also a sucker for those 'double result' props so just a for fun bet of HT tie/game Jets at +1600. Too good to pass up and I can't believe it would be that unusual of an occurrence (but I guess it's not +1600 for nothing either)

[dragon1952]

Also taking Miami +4.5 1st H. Kind of dangerous since Miami has only scored 6 pts total in the 2nd Q this year, but they were ahead of Cleveland and within 3 of San Diego at HT in those games. Jets have only been ahead at HT in one game so far.

[garister]

I am adding a small play on Miami Team Total Under 17 1/2. I do believe the Jets D will tighten as I mentioned earlier reason.

[Dinger]

I have the Dolphins covering and maybe comes down to a FG in the last two minutes.

Calling for the upset.

Mia 17
NYJ 16

[dragon1952]

I must admit that Miami is somewhat of a contrarian bet for me tonight. I've done way above average this weekend so the odds of me going with NYJ to kill them (my initital knee-jerk reaction) and winning are slim. I know......lame reason but it would certainly hold true. And if I'm wrong I can always make a desperate attempt to recover with the in-game and/or HT bets

Also took Mia +10.5/UN 44.5 at +150 odds.
And, Mia +8 (bought 1/2 pt)