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So, I took a look at the games and lines for this week and it's going to be a difficult week. So, I figured I'd get an early dialogue and post my thoughts on each game and which way I'm leaning. Then we can discuss and make some good picks later. Bolded will be the choices I'm leaning.
These lines are from sportsbook early this afternoon.
Morning Games
Chicago -1 vs. Tampa Bay (IN LONDON) O/U 44
Tampa Bay just beat a very good team in the saints. At home. On the road against a good team they couldn't score a td. In fact Josh Freeman hasn't punched it in much at all before that. He was 2 td's for 5 ints the first 5 games. This is an away game for both teams. Bears held AP in check and I think they can hold the Bucs in check forcing Freeman to the air. Which Freeman shows up? Bears by 1? Yeah, I'll take that.
Washington @ Carolina -2.5 O/U 44
This may have moved to 3 by now but was 2.5 earlier. Not sure who will be QB yet for washington. Skins are on a downward spiral with this. Shanehan again questioning the QB will not help. Carolina's pass D not as good as the eagles but they do have a better pass O. I'm giving the home field advantage and while this is around a field goal I like the panthers to get their 2nd win.
SD -2.5 @ NYJ O/U 45
Chargers off a bye, jets on short week and well did you see that game last night? Jets are not playing well and haven't been all season. If Philip Rivers plays well and can find another receiver other than VJAX who may be on Revis island they win this.
SEA @ Cle -3 O/U 40.5
Seattle rarely travels well. They did great against the Giants but were terrible against the steelers and 9'ers. Now the Browns. Browns haven't beat anyone notable and have lost by 7 or more in each loss. WHitehurst scares me but the browns scare me more. Seattle rolls.
Houston @ Tenn -3 O/U 44.5
Houston isn't bad. They are 500 (par for the course) but they are injured. Andre Johnson gone for a while longer and Mario Williams out for the year. Schaub has a sore knee but no damage. Tennessee handled Baltimore and I think they handle the Texans at home. If this were in houston I'd flip it but tennessee plays well at home and they are coming off a bye. The total score is a hard one, leaning under.
Denver @ Miami -2 O/U 42.5
Tim Tebow era begins as an underdog. He will be minus his best WR in Lloyd but likely sticking to a run. I can't pick miami after that game monday night (short week) and denver coming off bye. It's two terrible teams which is worse.
Atlanta @ Detroit -3 O/U 47.5
May now be at 3.5. A lot of people seem to be on atlanta too I've been hearing so it will change. But Atlanta gives me very little confidence when they play the road. Detroit at home a 2nd week in a row do what they do and come out with a win and polite handshake.
Afternoon Games
KC @ Oakland -4 O/U 41.5
KC on a 2 game win streak coming out the bye week hot. That's what I'm hearing people say. Let's break that down. They beat Indy and Minny who are combined 1-11. KC hasn't shown much of anything. Oakland swept last year their division and they take down KC here. Yes Cambell is out but McFadden will run it, Boller knows the offense and if Palmer plays that's an upgrade. Oakland at home will get another V.
Pitt -3.5 @ Arizonia O/U 42
Out of Pitt's 3 road games they lost 2 and barely escaped Curtis Painter... They are not the same on the road just as the cards are not the same as when at home. Cardinals come home on a 4 game losing streak and a bye. Hard game to figure but I'll put this as my upset. AZ wins. Total score is a hard one the line looks dead on. Cardinals gone over 42 in all but 1 game, pitt half 42 or greater other half not so much.
GB -8 @ Minny O/U 47
Believe Ponder is starting. Believe it doesn't matter for the Championship Belt. GB rolls into it's division rival's and covers.
Total is hard here. If minny can score some then it gets the over but if they fall flat this doesn't hit 42. Leaning over for the moment since last 5 games they've played against each other 4/5 went over 50.
Slt @ Dal -13 O/U 44
Dallas needs a win and here come the rams. They have the WR's to tear it up and the defense to smash the rams who may not have bradford but will gain a little with Lloyd. They do what Green Bay did.
Sunday Night Game
Indy @ New Orleans -14 O/U 48.5
Saints bounce back indy not so much. Indy on 2nd of 3 road games. Sorry, not happening. They'll score a little sure but not enough.
Monday Night Game
Baltimore -7.5 @ Jax O/U 39
Jacksonville did it to Pitt and can do it to Baltimore just as tennessee did it to baltimore. On the road this ends within a td in a grind it out game.
So, those are my initial thoughts. Haven't done in depth research or anything on the games. These aren't solid decisions but starting points. Post your thoughts, criticisms etc.
These lines are from sportsbook early this afternoon.
Morning Games
Chicago -1 vs. Tampa Bay (IN LONDON) O/U 44
Tampa Bay just beat a very good team in the saints. At home. On the road against a good team they couldn't score a td. In fact Josh Freeman hasn't punched it in much at all before that. He was 2 td's for 5 ints the first 5 games. This is an away game for both teams. Bears held AP in check and I think they can hold the Bucs in check forcing Freeman to the air. Which Freeman shows up? Bears by 1? Yeah, I'll take that.
Washington @ Carolina -2.5 O/U 44
This may have moved to 3 by now but was 2.5 earlier. Not sure who will be QB yet for washington. Skins are on a downward spiral with this. Shanehan again questioning the QB will not help. Carolina's pass D not as good as the eagles but they do have a better pass O. I'm giving the home field advantage and while this is around a field goal I like the panthers to get their 2nd win.
SD -2.5 @ NYJ O/U 45
Chargers off a bye, jets on short week and well did you see that game last night? Jets are not playing well and haven't been all season. If Philip Rivers plays well and can find another receiver other than VJAX who may be on Revis island they win this.
SEA @ Cle -3 O/U 40.5
Seattle rarely travels well. They did great against the Giants but were terrible against the steelers and 9'ers. Now the Browns. Browns haven't beat anyone notable and have lost by 7 or more in each loss. WHitehurst scares me but the browns scare me more. Seattle rolls.
Houston @ Tenn -3 O/U 44.5
Houston isn't bad. They are 500 (par for the course) but they are injured. Andre Johnson gone for a while longer and Mario Williams out for the year. Schaub has a sore knee but no damage. Tennessee handled Baltimore and I think they handle the Texans at home. If this were in houston I'd flip it but tennessee plays well at home and they are coming off a bye. The total score is a hard one, leaning under.
Denver @ Miami -2 O/U 42.5
Tim Tebow era begins as an underdog. He will be minus his best WR in Lloyd but likely sticking to a run. I can't pick miami after that game monday night (short week) and denver coming off bye. It's two terrible teams which is worse.
Atlanta @ Detroit -3 O/U 47.5
May now be at 3.5. A lot of people seem to be on atlanta too I've been hearing so it will change. But Atlanta gives me very little confidence when they play the road. Detroit at home a 2nd week in a row do what they do and come out with a win and polite handshake.
Afternoon Games
KC @ Oakland -4 O/U 41.5
KC on a 2 game win streak coming out the bye week hot. That's what I'm hearing people say. Let's break that down. They beat Indy and Minny who are combined 1-11. KC hasn't shown much of anything. Oakland swept last year their division and they take down KC here. Yes Cambell is out but McFadden will run it, Boller knows the offense and if Palmer plays that's an upgrade. Oakland at home will get another V.
Pitt -3.5 @ Arizonia O/U 42
Out of Pitt's 3 road games they lost 2 and barely escaped Curtis Painter... They are not the same on the road just as the cards are not the same as when at home. Cardinals come home on a 4 game losing streak and a bye. Hard game to figure but I'll put this as my upset. AZ wins. Total score is a hard one the line looks dead on. Cardinals gone over 42 in all but 1 game, pitt half 42 or greater other half not so much.
GB -8 @ Minny O/U 47
Believe Ponder is starting. Believe it doesn't matter for the Championship Belt. GB rolls into it's division rival's and covers.
Total is hard here. If minny can score some then it gets the over but if they fall flat this doesn't hit 42. Leaning over for the moment since last 5 games they've played against each other 4/5 went over 50.
Slt @ Dal -13 O/U 44
Dallas needs a win and here come the rams. They have the WR's to tear it up and the defense to smash the rams who may not have bradford but will gain a little with Lloyd. They do what Green Bay did.
Sunday Night Game
Indy @ New Orleans -14 O/U 48.5
Saints bounce back indy not so much. Indy on 2nd of 3 road games. Sorry, not happening. They'll score a little sure but not enough.
Monday Night Game
Baltimore -7.5 @ Jax O/U 39
Jacksonville did it to Pitt and can do it to Baltimore just as tennessee did it to baltimore. On the road this ends within a td in a grind it out game.
So, those are my initial thoughts. Haven't done in depth research or anything on the games. These aren't solid decisions but starting points. Post your thoughts, criticisms etc.
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