Tweet
Current line - Baltimore -10.5 O/U 38.5
Baltimore - 4-1 record and all 4 wins by at least 15 pts., but just 1-1 on the road losing to Tennessee by 13. In the 4 wins they have only given up a total of 45 pts (7, 7, 14 and 17) and have scored a minimum of 29 pts (35, 37, 34 and 29). Flacco has just a 79.6 QB rating completing only 51.4 % of his passes for 7 TD's vs 4 INT's. The Baltimore defense has been very good allowing less than 300 yds per game on average (76 rush/209 pass) with an average of 3 sacks, and nearly 3 TO's, per game.
Baltimore is +5 in TO ratio. Baltimore offense is averaging 367 yds per game, 122 rush/245 pass. An interesting observation is that the Ravens have out-scored opponents 59-7 in the 1st Q. The 1st Q line tonight is Balt -1.5 at even odds (I've already put a 1/2 unit on that). They've also been tough in the 4th Q allowing just 6 pts total while scoring 26, an average score of 5.2-1.2, so I will be looking closely at the 4th Q line total. The 2nd-3rd Q scoring has been nearly dead even.
Jacksonville - 1-5 record (0-3 with Gabbert starting). With the exception of the Jet game they have not really been blown out, losing by a max of 13 to New Orleans, and then 6, 10 and 4 to CAR, CIN and PIT. They were only trailing NO 14-10 at HT and then lost the 2nd H 9-0. Against Cincinnati they were tied 13-13 at HT and actually led 20-16 until nearly halfway through the 4th Q when CIN scored twice, once on a fumble return as time expired.
The Jaguar defense really hasn't been that bad, allowing under 300 yds of offense in 4 of 5 games, while givng up an average of just 115 yds rushing and 210 passing per game. What killed them in the Jet rout is the offense giving up 4 INT's and a safety. Last week at Pittsburgh they actually shut the Steelers out in the 2nd H after going into HT behind 17-3. The Jag D hasn't given up more than 16 FD's in any game, but they haven't generated many TO's either with 6 INT's but no fumble recoveries on just 3 attempts.
Jacksonville offense has been pretty bad averaging just 260 ypg (122 rush/and just 137 pass), and have scored just 6 TD's through 6 games. They have been out-scored pretty handily in the 1st, 3rd and 4th Q's while playing even in the 2nd. Maurice Jones-Drew is averaging a healthy 4.8 ypc.
Jacksonville will be hard-pressed to score much more than 13 pts on this Baltimore defense, and Baltimore needs the win to stay on top of Pittsburgh who they play again in 3 weeks. We won't see a rout like we saw last night with IND at NO. The Ravens will likely score between 23-27 or so, unless things really fall apart for the Jags, so we could very easily see a 23-13 game, give or take 3 pts either way. You would think the Ravens should win by at least a TD though so a 7 pt teaser taking Baltimore -3.5 and either OV 31.5 or UN 45.5 seems like the safer route. If Jones-Drew can generate some offense and the Jags don't turn the ball over too many times this won't turn into a rout. I hate taking the UN though and watching easy TO scores though so I'll probably play BAL -3.5/OV 31.5. The Jags should score at least 10 and Baltimore should score more than 21.
Anybody else have thoughts on this game?
Baltimore - 4-1 record and all 4 wins by at least 15 pts., but just 1-1 on the road losing to Tennessee by 13. In the 4 wins they have only given up a total of 45 pts (7, 7, 14 and 17) and have scored a minimum of 29 pts (35, 37, 34 and 29). Flacco has just a 79.6 QB rating completing only 51.4 % of his passes for 7 TD's vs 4 INT's. The Baltimore defense has been very good allowing less than 300 yds per game on average (76 rush/209 pass) with an average of 3 sacks, and nearly 3 TO's, per game.
Baltimore is +5 in TO ratio. Baltimore offense is averaging 367 yds per game, 122 rush/245 pass. An interesting observation is that the Ravens have out-scored opponents 59-7 in the 1st Q. The 1st Q line tonight is Balt -1.5 at even odds (I've already put a 1/2 unit on that). They've also been tough in the 4th Q allowing just 6 pts total while scoring 26, an average score of 5.2-1.2, so I will be looking closely at the 4th Q line total. The 2nd-3rd Q scoring has been nearly dead even.
Jacksonville - 1-5 record (0-3 with Gabbert starting). With the exception of the Jet game they have not really been blown out, losing by a max of 13 to New Orleans, and then 6, 10 and 4 to CAR, CIN and PIT. They were only trailing NO 14-10 at HT and then lost the 2nd H 9-0. Against Cincinnati they were tied 13-13 at HT and actually led 20-16 until nearly halfway through the 4th Q when CIN scored twice, once on a fumble return as time expired.
The Jaguar defense really hasn't been that bad, allowing under 300 yds of offense in 4 of 5 games, while givng up an average of just 115 yds rushing and 210 passing per game. What killed them in the Jet rout is the offense giving up 4 INT's and a safety. Last week at Pittsburgh they actually shut the Steelers out in the 2nd H after going into HT behind 17-3. The Jag D hasn't given up more than 16 FD's in any game, but they haven't generated many TO's either with 6 INT's but no fumble recoveries on just 3 attempts.
Jacksonville offense has been pretty bad averaging just 260 ypg (122 rush/and just 137 pass), and have scored just 6 TD's through 6 games. They have been out-scored pretty handily in the 1st, 3rd and 4th Q's while playing even in the 2nd. Maurice Jones-Drew is averaging a healthy 4.8 ypc.
Jacksonville will be hard-pressed to score much more than 13 pts on this Baltimore defense, and Baltimore needs the win to stay on top of Pittsburgh who they play again in 3 weeks. We won't see a rout like we saw last night with IND at NO. The Ravens will likely score between 23-27 or so, unless things really fall apart for the Jags, so we could very easily see a 23-13 game, give or take 3 pts either way. You would think the Ravens should win by at least a TD though so a 7 pt teaser taking Baltimore -3.5 and either OV 31.5 or UN 45.5 seems like the safer route. If Jones-Drew can generate some offense and the Jags don't turn the ball over too many times this won't turn into a rout. I hate taking the UN though and watching easy TO scores though so I'll probably play BAL -3.5/OV 31.5. The Jags should score at least 10 and Baltimore should score more than 21.
Anybody else have thoughts on this game?
Very often I am opposite of Bettorsworld, and half the time I don't even remember to read it. But anyone who does a write-up has exactly the same facts available to them which is why any write-up will likely mention the same facts.
Comment