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  1. #1
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    RestEasy's Week 9 NFL Early Looks and Picks

    So, I'll start off with which way I am leaning and later in the week will lock in some picks. Here's my initial reactions to the games.
    Do like to hear thoughts for against etc. Lets make this a nice discussion.


    Morning Games

    Atl Falcons -7 @ Indy Colts O/U 44.5
    Falcons coming off a bye and quietly having won 3 of their past 4 with a home loss against green bay. Indy has been playing terrible but have been on the road the past 3 weeks in a row and 4 of the last 5. Last home game against KC losing by 4. I think they play better at home feed off the crowd a bit more and actually keep this under 7.


    TB Bucs @ NO Saints -8.5 O/U 50.5
    Difficult one. Saints have been having trouble with division opponents the past few years. They lost in TB a few weeks ago and now have a shot to even the score. The bucs have a chance to take a lead in the division. Competitive game means this will not be won by 9 pts. TB has won the last 3 of 4 @ NO.


    Cle Browns @ Hous Texans -11 O/U 41
    The Browns have looked terrible the past couple weeks. This is a high spread which makes me pause but the Texans are looking good and seemingly getting better each week. Andre Johnson may not play again this week but for this game they don't need him. Foster should do fine.

    NY Jets @ Buf Bills -1.5 O/U 44
    The Bills have been playing great at home. The Jets have yet to win a road game. Jets get a little breathing room with the pats loss and coming off bye that gives Rex an extra week to prepare. Revis will stuff stevie johnson but fred jackson will cannonball down the field against the 25th run d. Bills are looking good. At 1.5 this is basically a pickem and I pick the bills.


    Mia Dolphins @ KC Chiefs -4 O/U 39.5
    Will the dolphins get a win? Maybe next week against the skins but not now. You have to wonder why -4 and not 6 or 7. Dolphins played well for almost half the game last week before choking. KC had a loss until Rivers went spastic which could only be an act of god. Maybe tebow had money on the chiefs? So that could be the reason. Whatever it is take it. KC at home are a better football team and should win by 4 easily.


    SF 49ers -3.5 @ Wash Redskins O/U 37.5
    Seems some people believe the redskins bounce back from their shutout to upset the 9ers. I can see that but I don't believe it. Would like this better at an even 3 but this will do. 49ers are a better team all around. They have the defense and the offense while redskins only have a defense and low confidence. 49ers have the best rushing defense and one of the best rushing attacks. Redskins are weak at running and defending the run.
    I'm going with the 6-ATS 49ers.


    Sea Seahawks @ Dal Cowboys -12 O/U 44
    How upset must dallas be laying an egg on sunday night? Will they bounce back? At home they are stronger and the seahawks are historically weaker on the road. 12 is a lot and I hate going with so many favorites but the hawks have been playing so bad lately I just can't see them keeping it close. Dallas will take out frustration on them and will not stop at a lead but will keep going like they did against the rams.


    Afternoon Games

    Den Broncos @ Oak Radiers -8.5 O/U 42.5
    Carson Palmer got 2 weeks with the team. McFadden is still hurt though. Denver got destroyed at home and will be looking for revenge. The problem is they don't have much power to exact that revenge. The Raiders will be a huge Question mark. This is a stay away game I think because you don't know how they'll be. Can't look at early season stats because Mcfadden is ? And palmer is ?. So I'll take the points.
    **If McFadden does play though then this should be a pretty easy win and cover for the raiders.


    Cinc Bengals @ Ten Titans -3 O/U 42
    The Bengals are quietly putting up a good winning record. They haven't played anyone amazing like the patriots or green bay (well maybe buffalo whom they beat) nor do they this week. Titans held the colts in check.... Hooray for them. Titans have the worst run offense and the bengals the best run defense. Bengals win outright this line is a joke.
    Weather says a chance of rain. Who knows could be showers but couple that with the great D by cincy and you get and under total.


    NY Giants @ NE Patriots -8.5 O/U 51.5
    This isn't 2007.
    What happens in 2011? Giants rank 4th in pass offense and pats are 32nd in pass D. Yep. Offset by giants run O 30th and pats run d 9th. Pats pass O 2nd giants O-Defence 13th. Yada yada yada. Giants are a team to play to the level of the competition (see miami and buffalo). They have a history of developing a good defensive scheme. They layed the blueprints to stop Vick last season. The steelers and the cowboys stopped or slowed the pats down. The giants will look at this intensely and they will come up with something. Will it work?
    Either brady goes apeshit and blasts them or the gmen keep it close. I believe in the latter.
    **I am a giants fan so I may be delusional here

    GB Packers -6 @ SD Chargers O/U 51
    Man oh man that was a crazy finish to the monday night game. 2nd game in a row the chargers blow at the end. They'll bring that anger back to san diego for their first home game in a month. 2 road games and a bye.
    The Schedule makers gave green bay a gift. They gave them a team that played a monday night game after thier bye. One of the hardest teams they'll play this season How does that happen?
    This game has trap written on it. I do believe the chargers cover and even sneak away a win. Why? Packers look great offensively for sure but their defence is suspect. They have the 31st pass D. Bradford put up over 400yds on them. Chargers are the 6th passing offense and have the 4th passing D. They are angry and need a win.



    Sunday Night

    Balt Ravens @ Pitt Steelers -3.5 O/U 42
    Smash mouth football. Steelers were embarrassed earlier in the year and now look to return the favor. Baltimore's offense has looked absolutely terrible. Ravens have played 3 road games and lost 2 of them only winning @ rams.
    Steelers just had a huge win over New England. Do they fall flat this week? No.
    I'm looking at the hot team in the steelers. Again would like it better at even 3.

    Monday Night

    Chi Bears @ Phi Eagles -8 O/U 47
    The eagles are extremely overrated. They have yet to be an underdog this year. Can you believe that? They dropped to pickem against the giants but that's the closest. 8 points against a team coming off a bye and an extra day for the monday night game (how'd that happen?) !
    Bears beat philly last year shutting down Vick.
    I don't know this year. I do believe the line is too high though and go with the points and rested team.


    Afternoon Game
    Rams @ Cards No line yet
    Will Bradford play, will Kolb play? I like the rams to win so far if Kolb is out and Bradford plays which is looking more likely. Until the line comes out though hard to say.


    So that's how I'm seeing them at first glance. Things may change over the days. Please post your thoughts and lets get a good dialogue going on these.
    Last edited by resteasy; 11-02-2011 at 03:11 PM.

  2. #2
    I like your following picks:

    Texans
    Bills and over
    Chiefs
    Niners
    Bengals and under
    Chargers
    Steelers but only at -3, and under
    Bears

    I lean against your following picks:

    Texans under 41. I think the Texans offense is rolling even without Andre Johnson. True they only got 24 last week, but Jax is a very good D. Cleveland not bad either, but this is second in a row at home for Texans and second in a row on the road for Brownies. Browns just need to score 13. Texans are good for at least 28. 31-13 Texans.

    Cowboys -12. I think the Seahawks D will keep it close and T-Jack may be able to put up 17-20 to get the cover, even if it is late garbage score. 31-20 Dallas is a cover for the Hawks.

    Giants +8.5. I can't go with our Giants. Revenge WILL be a factor. Brady and Belichick are still sore about that 18-1 season! Giants' D has had trouble with T-Jack. Ryan Fitz and Matt Moore at home in NY! How can our leaky, undisciplined D keep up with Brady's hurry-up Offense? Only the pass rush can save us. NE 34-24.

    NY/NE under 51.5. I see it at 51 and even 50.5! At that I would consider over as I also think Eli will fare well against the Pats' pass defense. But it may be in a mop-up, garbage time way. New England 34-24.

    Chargers under 51. I see 50.5 now and I would take that over. Rodgers and Rivers will trade scores back and forth. If Rivers can get some TDs instead of FGs, then it will sail over and Chargers could even cover. But I'd want at least +6. What good is 5.5?! Green Bay 31-27.

    GL

    No lean on other picks.

  3. #3
    Footnote. I will NOT play against my Giants. I just will have low expectations and will cheer them on. Just like the Super Bowl. That was the best feeling a sports fan could ever have!

  4. #4
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    ^
    I agree that I won't put money on the giants either. Actually as a rule I don't play the Giants. The one time I broke that rule this season seattle beat them. Ugh.
    But my picks are may favorites in no particular order. I play some of them not all of them. Also, ones I am not sure on but like I tend to tease. Like the Giants would be a good tease to (6pt tease to +15) but I don't like playing the giants.

    a number of the points you remarked on were thoughts I had too which is why they (except the giants) are a no play for me. Over Unders have been difficult lately as teams haven't been as consistent.
    Cowboys seattle I can see them covering 12 in anger but I can also see the seahawks finally getting their act together and putting a few points on the board enough to cover.
    Texans I can see going crazy but I can also see them getting a lead, playing conservative with foster browns not scoring more than 7 and that's it. So another stay away on total.

    with that
    Picks are

    Indy +7
    Bucs +8
    49ers -3
    Chiefs -4
    Bills -2
    Houston -10.5
    Rams +2
    Bengals +3
    Chargers +5
    Giants +9
    Bears +8

    Bucs/Saints UNDER 50.5
    Interesting fact. Last time they went over 50.5 was in 2001 and these teams meet twice a year.

  5. #5
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    3-4 on the morning.

    5 games remaining.
    man saints just barely covered. That hurt.

  6. #6
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    5-6 so far with bears tomorrow night.
    man I've been hitting 5-6 or even the past 2 or 3 weeks.
    Breaking the possible even by adding

    Pitt -3

  7. #7
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    5-7
    man didn't think flacco had it in him to do that. If they won it would be grind it out not that. impressive.

  8. #8
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    What a pathetic performance by the Steeler 'D'. What'd they give up....90% conversion rate on 3rd down?

  9. #9
    They went to prevent and let them walk down the field! They were throttling them straight up but with 92 yards to go, they decided to play it safe and not give up the big one. So they stop blitzing and give up the short ones - all the way down the field. And then BOOM, one big one. That was a sick way to lose the Pitt cover and the under.

  10. #10
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    I try not to think of Bal as a passing team, but with Ray rice as a dump button and boldin as a great target at the sticks they can flex most types of d's they will see. When they see the soft run d, they have rice and potman ricky williams. The formula for a Superbowl ring is game managing QB, strong run game, veteren backup RB with a mission, and at least legitimate wr. Also, a top 5 run d. The only question is will reed and lewis keep the energy late in the season at their age.

  11. #11
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    I think they will at least make it to the Superbowl. I'll take some of the futures AFC champ action if i can find it at 5/1 or better.

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