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  1. #1
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    RestEasy's Week 10 Picks

    Looked at the games was going to do a thing on all them again but been busy. I know what I like so here it is.

    Thursday Night

    Oakland @ San Diego -7 O/U 48
    These teams when playing each other tend to score around 41 pts total so I really like the under. San Diego has been in the last 3 games they've played just falling short. I think they get over the hump on thursday night and loko forward to a nice relaxing week and a half rest after that brutal stretch. This for division lead should give them enough motivation to win. Key will be turnovers and whether Palmer can keep it on their team. I don't think he will. McFadden out hurts raiders too and Matthews is looking likely so 3 good RB's for San Diego I see a lead and lots of running.


    Sunday Morning

    Tenn @ Carolina -3 O/U 46
    I like carolina coming off a bye at home against a limping tennessee team. Titans haven't shown anything explosive to match a rested Cam Newton. Chris Johnson looked to be waking up but I do not believe he's up to the task just yet. Panthers have been scoring a lot enough to cover the over too.


    Pitt -3 @ Cincy O/U 41.5
    I am a believer in the Bengals. Andy Dalton is making a good case for Rookie of the Year. Sure, he's not as flashy as Newton and doesn't have as many yards especially in running but he is providing wins. Pitt just came off a brutal sunday night game that was draining emotionally and physically. Bengals at home I think at the least cover but I even like them to win.


    Buffalo @ Dallas -5.5 O/U 48
    5.5! Really? Take the points it's not even a question. Cowboys are having problems moving the ball into the endzone settling for 3 too often. Mile Austin is out but Robinson is looking like a good fill in and Murray has been providing good runs. Just something is keeping them from finishing drives and this Bills team will be angry from their loss at home to the jets bringing that anger and talent into cowboy's stadium. Losing their Defensive Tackle and kicker probably drove this line but it's still too high. Take it.

    Houston -3 @ Tampa Bay O/U 45.5
    Houston is showing they are a run first team just as every fantasy football owner hoped they'd be. Tampa is 26th against the run. Houston's D is also surprisingly good wade philips has that in good order. Freeman has been struggling and this D will add to those struggles. This is in Tampa Bay where the bucs play better (ask the saints). Like this game at 3.

    New Orleans @ Atlanta -1 O/U 50
    Falcons have been playing consistent football lately. Good in the air, stronger even now with Julio Jones back healthy and good on the ground. Saints seem to be hit or miss. Most often they hit at home and miss on the road. Ryan most often hits at home. Some places have this at pickem. Be sure to Pick atlanta.

    St Louis @ Cleveland -3 O/U 37
    Rams just lost a heartbreaker at arizonia. Cleveland has been in a free fall barely scoring anything. Their defense is starting to crack, players are dropping like flies. Rams went through that and are starting to figure it out a little, not much but a little. Bradford will be healthier and will have a week to practice. They need a positive and beating the browns is at least manageable. By a field goal? likely.


    Afternoon Games

    NY Giants @ San Francisco -3.5 O/U 42.5
    I'm a Giants fan so of course I side with them here right? Well, I try to be objective. I like this team on the road. I trust them more on the road. They are playing well together and have the ability to win this game outright. San Fran is really good at home so it will be tough. 49ers have a great run D and the giants not so great a run offense. Giants figured out how to stuff tom brady and I think they can do the same to the 49ers. Neither team has played more than 2 good teams. san fran - cincy detroit, nyg - buffalo NE. This looks to me as an even matchup and should be a great game. Even enough that the 1/2 pt is the deciding factor. At +3.5 take the pts and the gmen.


    Sunday Night

    NE Pats @ Jets -2 O/U 47
    The patriots and the packers have something in common. Not a perfect season. They both have bad defenses that rely on the QB to win games. You don't score 25+ pts you likely lose. Rodgers has a million weapons and is playing out of his mind. Brady does not and is not. Revis and Cromartie stepped up huge last week against the bills. They are finally showing they want this division and can take it. If the jets can keep that defensive play (which I believe they can) Brady has a terrible day. Dallas, Steelers and the Giants have showed how to exploit the cracks in the patriot offense and you know Rex will use every bit of that and use it well.


    Monday Night

    Vikings @ Packers -13 O/U 51
    Ponder has started in 2 games with this being his 3rd. #'s 1 and 3 against the packers. So, he's spent 1 week prepping for the pack and lost by 6. Then a week in which he won. Then 2 more weeks prepping for the packers. 3 weeks out of the last month for this team. AND they are coming off a rested bye week that is extended due to it being a monday night game. The bears just had this same bye week rest and it helped. Packers pass D has been horrendous averaging about 300 yds to opposing QB's! 31st in the league. Almost 2td's! Take the points and take them now! If you are at all skeptical and need to tease this game take 20 or 21 and over 44 or 43. Do it and do it big cause this line will probably move to 12 or 11 if people are at all smart. I'm hoping it goes to 14 but really don't need it. Vikings cover and you know what, I give them 30% of winning (43 if not in GB)


    Recap of picks in order I like them

    Carolina -3
    Vikings +13
    San Diego -7
    car/tenn Over 46
    Buffalo +5.5
    san diego/oakland Under 48
    Atl -1
    Jets -2
    Houston -3
    Bengals +3
    St Louis +3
    GMEN +3.5 (placed last cause I'm a fan)

    I don't bet them all some I tease some I parlay but I'll tell you I did already place bets on the top 3.
    Good luck to all

  2. #2
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    What a tough week Vegas has dialed into for us bettors. 11 games no higher than 3.5 points either way.

    A Few meaningless stats I came across in looking at these games on trends:

    Houston -3 at Tampa (Houston is 0-5-1 ats vs the NFC last 6 games).

    Detroit +2.5 vs Bears (Lions are 0-6 ats away games last 6)

    Minny +13.0 vs the Packers (Minny is 4-1-1- ats off a bye week)
    Green Bay is 8-1 ATS last 9 games after a away win.

  3. #3
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    San Diego's defense sucks. I think the Raiders can stay within a TD if not win out-right. really like the Giants and Falcon picks though.

  4. #4
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    Quote Originally Posted by dragon1952 View Post
    San Diego's defense sucks. I think the Raiders can stay within a TD if not win out-right. really like the Giants and Falcon picks though.
    Thanks.

    San Diego and Oakland have almost the same # of Passing TD's and defensive INT's but san deigo has given up much less passing yds/game.
    Oakland has given up 9 rushing td's san diego 4. San Diego again has given up less yds/game on the ground.

    No McFadden and Janikowski is looking like he'll kick again. The problem with that is that janikowski is still hurting. He had trouble kicking touchbacks last week saying that's all he could manage which will give the chargers very good starting field position.
    Good field position + 26th defense in giving up total yds/game - 1 McFadden + 1 Ryan Mathews + 1 Tolbert + short week for an oakland raiders team that has a lot to figure out = 7 pt win

    and Raiders are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 thursday games.
    chargers haven't lost 4 in a row since 2003 where they started off the season 0-5

    I like a teaser also here 6 or 7pt san diego -1 or pickem under 54 or 55

  5. #5
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    Quote Originally Posted by dragon1952 View Post
    San Diego's defense sucks. I think the Raiders can stay within a TD if not win out-right. really like the Giants and Falcon picks though.
    Good call dragon.

    Palmer didn't turn it over as much as I thought he would have. nothing costly enough.

    I know game's not over but it's over.

  6. #6
    I like your:
    Carolina, but it's now -3.5.
    Giants
    Jets
    Cinci if +3.5, but under 42 might be the better bet.
    Maybe Buffalo if +6

    Only opposed to your:
    Atlanta and maybe Houston. But I just lean Saints and Bucs. Might be no plays. Those games could go either way. I'm not sold on the Falcons. I really like the Texans but worry that it is a must game for the Bucs at home. Texans a Dome team playing outside on the grass and not needing it that badly. But they have a great run game and Wade has them playing great D.

    GL

  7. #7
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    Bucs have been having issues since losing a key defensive player a few weeks ago. Haynesworth will eventually fill a gap but he's trouble and won't be the factor that tips the scales this week. Houston will pound it on the ground and their D is playing exceptional. In fact tampa bay is 24th overall in rushing D and houston is 4th overall in total D.
    Houston should push or cover the 3. I'm apparently betting the latter.

    Atlanta and Saints is a hard one. Yes coach and matt ryan have an impressive home win record but the saints have been the upset there. They have won the last 2 times (last 2 seasons) playing @ atlanta. Still, I think the saints are suspect on the road after losing to bucs and rams. Falcons have been playing pretty consistent after a shaky start. I just like the falcons in the pickem.

    I like cincy. I've had several people ask me (after hearing that) 'yeah, but who have they beat?'
    they beat the bills.
    Who have the steelers beat?
    they beat the pats.
    Who else has each team beat? Oh yeah they both have beaten no one huge. In fact the combined win/loss totals for the teams each has beat is almost identical. Cincy 16-33 steelers 15-34.
    So this season neither has proven (when compared together) which is more dominant. It's historical relevance that leans steelers. History starts somewhere and this is a new bengals team. At home. I just think they win. at the least +3 is good for a cover (at worse a push).
    Last edited by resteasy; 11-12-2011 at 01:07 AM. Reason: added a stat

  8. #8
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    wow 3-7 with 2 to go. worst sunday again by a good margin. Before this at least I was around .500 ugh.
    Got bailed out on a parlay today only just barely.

  9. #9
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    I personally like NE to come out strong tonight myself and win this game.

    Brady is good enough and I think they gameplan to cover up their shity D to grab a win. I am hoping it gets to +3 and I am all over NE.

    I had a crappy day today too. I think I went 1-5 on my real plays to cancel out a 8-1 day yesterday in college.

    Good luck and good insight--these days happen.

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