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  1. #1
    Join Date
    Nov 2005
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    4,404

    Thursday Night NFL - Raiders(4-4) at Chargers (4-4) - Discussion

    Current line San Diego -7 / 48
    As Taxman has already said this will be the 3rd game in 10 days for the Chargers.
    Oct 31 - at KC LOSS
    Nov 6 - vs GB LOSS
    Nov 10 - vs OAK

    After starting the season 4-1, the Chargers have now lost 3 in a row. The Raiders started 4-2 and are coming off of a 2 game losing streak. I'll be adding more shortly.

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Nov 2005
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    4,404
    OK....I'm a Charger's homer (although I don't live there anymore) and my wife and I watch all the games via NFL Sunday Ticket. I do tend to be critical of them, but it is oftened deserved.
    The Chargers 4 wins have come against teams with a combined record of 10-22. They beat MIN (2-6) at home by just 7, KC (4-4) at home by 3, Miami (1-7) at home by 10 in a game that was just a 7 pt game late into the 4th Q, and they beat DEN (3-5) on the road by 5. So they have not won any game convincingly. San Diego is just 2-6 ATS overall, and just 1-3 ATS at home. Rivers leads NFL QB's with 14 INT's, while throwing for 11 TD's for an 81.4 QB rating. Overall the Chargers are -8 in TO ratio.
    WR Malcolm Floyd has been injured, and TE Gates is gimpy, leaving Vincent Jackson as the lone healthy threat in the passing game. Ryan Mathews is often awesome but can't be counted on 100% to finish any game. Tolbert is a stud and if it wasn't for him the Chargers would be in worse trouble than they are. They have other significant injuries and will again be missing Pro Bowl G Kris Dielman and their best pass rusher in OLB Shaun Phillips. They have been hit hard at LB with James Mouton, Stephen Cooper and Larry English all still out, and they are missing S Bob Sanders who was counted on to help out in the secondary and DE Luis Castillo.

    Out of their 4 wins, Oakland has beaten 2 very solid teams winning by 10 over the Jets at home and then winning at Houston by 5. Those teams are a combined 11-6. The Raiders could have very easily started 5-1, losing at Buffalo on a last second TD. They have a pretty good excuse for the KC blow-out loss, and they were the victims of a Tebow comeback last week as they blew a 14 pt lead, possibly looking ahead to this game at that point? Whatever...Palmer has now had more time to get comfortable with the offense, throwing for 332 yds and 3 TD's last week, and he definitely has more than enough offensive weapons. Michael Bush, Jacoby Ford, Denarius Moore, Taiwan Jones, Heyward-Bey can all be scary good, and now they have a little extra help with TJ Houshmandzadeh. They will be able to score tonight. No McFadden of course, but Bush is a very capable back and Marcel Reece and Taiwan Jones can provide adequate help.
    I understand Oakland's D got torched last week but prior to last week's shootout with Green Bay the Chargers were only averaging 23 ppg. And the Raiders did have an excellent defensive game at Houston a few weeks ago so I just can't see them getting blown out here.
    This is a very nasty rivalry and you can be sure the Raiders will come to play. Also, remember that prior to their last 2 losses they had been 7-0 SU vs divisional rivals over the last 2 seasons. And, Oakland has gone 2-1 SU (very nearly 3-0 SU) and 3-0 ATS on the road this year.
    The Chargers could surprise me and win easily but they haven't really been playing well enough to be TD favorites over anyone, especially a tough division rival.
    As for the total, both QB's have been turning the ball over so we could see some easy points. As a result I am afraid of going under even though the trends support it.

    OAK is 15-5 UNDER their last 20 road games where the total was between 45.5 and 49 points
    OAK is 5-1 UNDER the last 6 road games vs San Diego
    SAN DIEGO is 7-1 UNDER the last 8 home games
    SAN DIEGO is 8-6 UNDER their last 14 games vs the AFC West

    Some other trends
    OAK is 5-11 ATS their last 16 games vs San Diego and OAK is 0-4 ATS their last 4 games on Thursday, but
    OAK is also 22-11 ATS their last 33 road games as an underdog of 3.5 to 7 points, and, OAK is 11-4 ATS their last 15 games vs the AFC West.

    Current line,
    SD -7 (-120)
    Oak +7 (EVEN)
    48

    I obviously am leaning Oakland, plus I have been getting killed teasing the home favorite lately so I am going with a 7 pt teaser of,
    OAK +14 / OV 41 @ -130
    and also a moderate bet on,
    OAK +7 EVEN

  3. #3
    Join Date
    Apr 2001
    Posts
    2,059
    Love the chargers here. SD has not lost more than 3 in a row since 2003. After a straight up loss at home, SD is 6-0 ATS in their next home game. In their 3 thursday night games, SD won by scores of 34-7, 42-17 and then 34-7 again. Da raiders are 0-4 ATS in last 4 thursday games. Also run DMC is out plus a banged up secondary for da raiders. Revenge spot for SD as raiders won both games last season.

    According to my calendar, today is Thursday, so I'm loading up on the chargers.

    my play... San diego - 7
    Last edited by Monroe Eaford; 11-10-2011 at 03:47 PM. Reason: spelling

  4. #4
    Join Date
    Aug 2000
    Posts
    8,272
    The angle is on Oakland with SD playing somuch lately, public is pounding SD etc.

    Normally I would say Oakland is the play but SD is due to break out and this may be the night.

    I am a slight Charger fan myself and 0 for whatever this year betting on them so I am not one to give advice. I have them in a tease down to pk as I expect themto win, but also played Oakland in the Mock Hilton so I am all over the board.

    My gut says Chargers by 14-17, but again, I don't have a great feel for them betting-wise.

  5. #5
    Join Date
    Sep 2010
    Posts
    1,580
    Comparing Raiders pre-palmer with mcfadden to post-palmer without mcfadden is not a fair measurement.
    Comparing Palmer's performance against the broncos at home off bye to how he may do against the chargers away with 4 days also not apples to apples.
    Denver is the 23rd pass D in yds/game. They have given up the 2nd most passing TD's 2nd only by 1 to Indy. Though the chargers and raiders aren't far behind.
    Palmer gets what 4 days to prepare including today? Yes, it's the same for the chargers but they have been together all season and don't need as much preparation.

    Not sure if Janikowski is playing but he played last week (last week sounds unfair he played 4 days ago) and could not drive it well for touchbacks which gave denver better starting field position and could happen tonight.

    With as many statistics as there are these days you could build a case for either team but looking at the last 3 weeks the chargers are the stronger team. Lost just barely to a good jets team on the road, lost a heartbreaker at KC and put up a good fight against the #1 team in the league.
    Raiders lost miserably and understandably to KC at home. Bye week. At home again they fall short and lose handily to a well below average denver team. Short week going into san diego I just don't see them keeping it competitive for all 4 quarters.

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