+ Reply to Thread
Results 1 to 15 of 15
  1. #1

    Widestrides NFL Picks Week 10

    Just Leans and open for discussion now. Final picks later.
    Last Week 7-5.
    Season: 59-45 (57%)


    Cinci +3.5 vs Pitt and/or under 41.5? Dare I? Is Andy Dalton ready to beat the Steelers? I might chicken out and go with the under 41.5.

    KC -3 vs Denver. KC laid an egg last week and they owe their fans a much better effort this week. Romeo will have the KC D ready to shut down Tebow.

    Maybe Jags -3 at Colts. Jags may just pound the Colts weak run D. Painter not really improving. Do the Colts rise up or fold?

    Maybe Buffalo +6 at Dallas. Rob Ryan scares me. He and Demarcus Ware. Not Tony Romo, who is without Miles Austin for a few weeks.

    Carolina -3 vs Tenny. Buy the hook if necessary. Up to -3.5 in some places. Cam and Co. rested off the bye and Tenny no offense.

    Saints at Atlanta over 49.5. In the Dome, both teams should move the ball. Neither defense that good and both offenses have many weapons. Big divisional games often stay under, so that is a concern.

    Bears -2.5 vs Lions and maybe under 45. Cutler's got it going and I love the way Urlacher, Peppers and Briggs shut down an offense. Lions have no running game and Bears just need to shut down Megatron and get after Stafford. Lions a Dome team playing outside on the concrete at Soldier Field.

    AZ/Philly over 46.5. Philly will score at will vs AZ and I think that Philly D is questionable. Still, it's Red Skelton at QB for AZ.

    Giants +3.5 at SF and under 42.5. Gore may be out. SF D is stout. SF and Harbaugh like to grind and play it conservative. Giants may have letdown after Pats win and long west coast trip. It's that extra half point that is "trapping' me in to the Giants at +3.5!

    Jets -1 vs Pats and over 47. Pats continue their swoon. Jets will be sky high. Only Sanchez can screw it up, and he is very capable of just that. But he is starting to find Plax and Holmes is always great and Keller is always dependable. I think Brady and Bellichick know they have to outscore teams now so it is bombs away and hurry-up offense. Hence the over 47.

    GB/Minny over 50.5. Lots of Lambeau leaps this weekend, but Ponder and AP should get theirs also against that spotty Green Bay D.


    GL

    Last edited by widestrides; 11-11-2011 at 11:07 PM.

  2. #2
    Locking in:

    KC -3
    Carolina -3
    Bears -2.5
    Giants +3.5
    Jets -1
    Jets/Pats over 47
    Bears/Lions under 45
    Saints/Falcons over 49.5
    Viksings/Packers over 50.5

  3. #3
    Join Date
    Sep 2010
    Posts
    1,580
    on probably all but not sure about the bears. A rested lions team vs bears on a short week. Peppers was hurt last game guessing he'll play but not sure how serious the injury was/is. That would be a factor. Hester was hurt as well and again not sure of his status. Those 2 together if out would make a difference.

    Lion's run game is severely hurt but at least they had a bye week to come up with a bandaid plan. Should be a good game.


    Giants game is west coast but is helped by being the afternoon game. Guessing Gore will play and it'll be a grind it out game. Look forward to it
    GMEN! and yes that 1/2 pt is huge
    Last edited by resteasy; 11-12-2011 at 12:55 AM. Reason: additions

  4. #4
    Join Date
    Nov 2005
    Posts
    4,402
    Love the Giants to win SU.

  5. #5
    Join Date
    Aug 2007
    Posts
    1,254
    My system has the 49ers winning by 10 points.

  6. #6
    If the Giants team that played Seattle and Miami shows up, SF will win by MORE than 10.

    If the Giants team that beat Philly and New England shows up, Giants will win by 7-10.

    If Joe Montana or Steve Young were playing for SF instead of Alex Smith, SF would win by 20+.

    Alex Smith and a conservative game plan by SF keeps this a close game. Close game, fourth quarter, gotta favor Eli over Alex. As they say, you can't spell Elite without Eli!

    There now I've probably jinxed the Giants real good.

  7. #7
    Buying out of New Orleans and Atlanta over 49.5.

    Adding:
    Jags -3
    Bills +6
    Pitt/Cinci under 41.5
    Houston/TB under 45.5

    Updated and maybe Final Card
    KC -3
    Jags -3
    Carolina -3
    Bills +6
    Bears -2.5
    Giants +3.5
    Jets -1
    Pitt/Cinci under 41.5
    Houston/TB under 45.5
    Bears/Lions under 45
    Jets/Pats over 47
    Viksings/Packers over 50.5

    GL

  8. #8
    Buying out of Packers/Vikings over. Dropped all three of those big overs.

    Updated and maybe Final Card
    KC -3
    Jags -3
    Carolina -3
    Bills +6
    Bears -2.5
    Giants +3.5
    Jets -1
    Pitt/Cinci under 41.5
    Houston/TB under 45.5
    Bears/Lions under 45
    Jets/Pats over 47

  9. #9
    Join Date
    Jan 2005
    Posts
    2,252
    It has been very windy in Chicago so far this weekend. The winds are still out of the south/southwest at 25. Which is right to left on your TV set. It might become a factor shutting down the deep pass opportunities when both team are going into the wind.

  10. #10
    Join Date
    Aug 2002
    Posts
    624
    For what its worth my plays today
    KC over
    Buff +5.5
    Houston-3.5
    Det +3
    SF-3.5
    NE +2

  11. #11
    Adding Rams +3 and Redskins +4.5. Go Rex! Banking on Redskins D.

    Updated and maybe Final Card
    KC -3
    Jags -3
    Carolina -3
    St. Louis +3
    Bills +6
    Bears -2.5
    Redskins +4.5
    Giants +3.5
    Jets -1
    Pitt/Cinci under 41.5
    Houston/TB under 45.5
    Bears/Lions under 45
    Jets/Pats over 47

  12. #12
    Join Date
    Sep 2010
    Posts
    1,580
    wow. I didn't see this happening to the bills. And carolina needs to get it going. 4th quarter 4 and 1. Geez.

  13. #13
    Join Date
    Aug 2007
    Posts
    1,254
    Quote Originally Posted by Dinger View Post
    My system has the 49ers winning by 10 points.
    I was wrong they won only by 7 points. 49ers my top pick of the week.

    Close game fourth quarter have to favor the 49er defense over Elite Manning.

  14. #14
    5-8 as three teams just did not show up at all for me - Chiefs, Bills and Panthers. Jets barely were competitive!
    My Bears under went over because they got TWO Pick 6s and a Hester Punt return for a TD! Damn. Too much guys! And Tampa could not tackle on two long TDs and that put that one over by a half point! And then there was Rex Grossman.

    You just never know in this league:
    Philly crushes Dallas and then loses two in a row while Dallas wins two in a row.
    SD and KC don't want First Place in the AFC West. Chiefs blow it at home, again! Pathetic.
    Tebow completes TWO passes and beats the Chiefs!
    Baltimore can beat Pitt twice, but lose to Tenny, Jax and Seattle!
    Detroit and Buffalo: Frauds fading fast.
    Mike Smith! What are you thinking?! (I know, gutsy call if he makes it.)
    Seattle and Arizona beat Baltimore and Philly SU?!
    Tampa, Carolina and Jets get blown out at home.

    There is no formula as it wasn't just dogs or favs or overs or unders that won. Pretty even split on all categories, except Home teams went 5-10. Go figure.

    I feel like I make some educated picks, but then it's really just up to the football gods as to whether the ball bounces my way or not as to whether I go over .500 or under .500! I would never try to do this with real money. Would drive me crazy.

    Can't wait till next week! :-)
    Last edited by widestrides; 11-13-2011 at 11:55 PM.

  15. #15
    Join Date
    Sep 2010
    Posts
    1,580
    I'm right there with you man. Terrible terrible picks this week. Analysis does nothing with teams playing like that except to hopefully weed out the ones that do follow trends like the texans playing well and redskins falling fast.

    That's why I threw in that disclaimer that I don't play all my picks with real money. I did bet some though and went down then got it all back and a little more on a big parlay with the bears/lions over.

    We'll get them next week. Good luck.

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts