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  1. #1
    Join Date
    Sep 2010

    RestEasy's Week 11 looks and picks

    For now just looking. We can get a dialogue going. Maybe it'll help.
    Except I like the Jets and Under.

    Thursday Night Game
    NY Jets -4.5 @ Denver O/U 41
    Tebow complete 2 of 8 passes. Sanchez completed 20 of 39. Tebow won his game and sanchez lost. Go figure. Difference was their competition. Patriots outweigh the chiefs in terms of competition and as if there were any doubts that will be settled on Monday night.
    Broncos are 0-4 ATS at home this year. They lost Moreno for the season and McGahee is hurt and status uncertain. Both teams have about the same run defense by yards though jets have let up 9 rushing TDs to denver’s 5.
    Tebow will run. He will be forced to pass and revis should have a big night guarding the only real threat in Decker. The line will be tuned to Tebow and the Jets should come out with a win so long as Sanchez can play game manager. Don’t need him to out gun anyone.
    Lots of ground and pound and thus low score.

    Sunday Morning Games
    Buffalo @ Miami -2.5 O/U 43.5
    Miami favored even before the news of Bills Center Woods going on IR. Why not they’re on the upswing and bills are on a downward spiral. Bills have a better total offense by the numbers and Miami a better D. Both have let up 14 passing TDs but buffalo has let 11 rushing to miami’s 3.
    This divisional matchup is not as plain as it looks it will be a must win for buffalo to keep pace with the jets who hold the tie breaker for now. By shear need if the bills can get anything going with Fred Jackson and if Stevie Johnson can go they can win this.
    Miami’s last 2 wins against KC and Washington isn’t as impressive as the total domination by jets and dallas. Lean buffalo (only just barely)
    Bills 3-1 ATS as underdog.
    Miami 1-3 ATS at home.

    Cincinatti @ Baltimore -7 O/U 40.5
    Who are the Baltimore ravens? I just don’t know.
    In their last 4 games they are 0-3-1 ATS. But the last 3 at home they are 2-1 ATS
    Bengals however are 7-2 ATS and 5-0 ATS away.
    Both teams have a stout run D letting up 90 or less yds/game. So if those cancel out who do you take Joe Flacco or Andy Dalton? Yes, bengals lost their corner and recently their safety. That is very very bad and so I take the pts here. Buy the ½ and take the bengals.

    Jacksonville -1 @ Cleveland O/U 35.5
    Really? Oh k. Both actually have good defenses. Both have really bad offenses. Which is best of the worst? Cleveland has missed 3 fgs at home in the last 2 home games with 2 blocked and one just a horrible snap inside the 20.
    Lean Jags as they actually have a running back and browns are 0-4 ATS at home.

    Oakland -1.5 @ Minnesota O/U 45
    After 3 division games Oakland gets the down and out vikes. Monday night’s game showed that Minnesota needs more time to develop.
    Has Carson and gang figured it out in Oakland or was the san diego game a passing moment of clarity? After what starks was able to do Bush (and not sure if mcfadden is back) should literally run away with this. I like the line almost too much.

    Carolina @ Detroit -7 O/U 47
    Both of these teams were huge let downs last weekend. Cam was held without a TD and Matt Staff played with a broken finger in a route by the bears. Detroit now splits the series with the bears and will need to win these types of games to keep pace.
    Carolina has yet to win on the road.
    7 is a lot of points and there is no indication which team will show up for either side. If there had to be a lean it would be with the points and the lions recent distress.

    Tampa Bay @ Green Bay -14.5 O/U 49.5
    If you had seen Monday night you’d know this doesn’t need a line. Green Bay. Done. (always good to buy the 1/2)

    Dallas -7.5 @ Washington O/U 41.5
    Dallas had a dominating win against Buffalo, did well against seattle, was dominated by philly, dominated the rams and was edged out by the pats. The trend? All wins at home.
    However, Murray is emerging as a very good RB though hasn’t played a great defense except maybe philly where he went 74yds. He should do well in Washington. Miles Austin still out but Larent Robinson filling in nicely as well.
    How about Washington? They’ve lost people too but no one seems to be filling in. The coach claims he’s behind one player then plays another. The team is so far behind in the race they’re out and confidence will be an issue but should be helped being at home for only the 5th time this season.
    Dallas should beat them but they haven’t played well on the road recently and Washington has played it closer at home. San Fran beat them by 8, philly by 7 and the other 2 home games way back in weeks 1&2 they won. These division games are generally played tough.
    Buy it down if taking dallas. At this moment I lean redskins with the points. I can see this actually moving to 8 or higher by Sunday.

    Afternoon Games
    Tennessee @ Atlanta -6 O/U 44
    Atlanta is hurting from that missed 4th down. They’ll need to win in new Orleans to negate that and until then they’ll just need to get better and get some wins. Should start here with a titans team that surprised a lot of folks last week in their domination of the Carolina panthers. But these aren’t panthers, they’re falcons (lame I know).
    Matt Ryan’s home win record is impressive but always had a soft spot for new Orleans with last Sunday being the 3rd in a row saints have won in Ryan’s house. Other teams don’t fare so well. Will be important to see if Julio is ok but really they should bounce back hard.

    Arizonia @ San Fran -9.5 O/U 41.5
    That is a lot of points. Ask the eagles.
    49’ers finally get to just their 2nd division game in the horrid NFC West. Arizonia went in and beat philly when they weren’t expecting it. Don’t see that happening here. Ok. What about those points?
    I am thinking a beat down.

    Seattle @ St Louis -2 O/U 37.5
    The Rams were giftwrapped a win by the Brown’s long snapper.
    Seattle took down the Ravens a team people are looking as superbowl contenders.
    So seahawks should win easily? Hold on.
    Last time the rams were home they beat the saints. They will play better at home. Seattle historically plays worse on the road but this year have been hit or miss. They will be going against the 32nd run defense however they may be minus 2 important receivers. That beating of Baltimore may have beat them up a bit too much. Think they make it interesting (or rams do by not playing well) but rams win by 3.

    San Diego @ Chicago -3.5 O/U 45
    Can San Diego lose 5 in a row? Yes. Chicago is playing very well going into the 2nd half of the season. Chargers should be focused and angry but may also be mentally beat down. The playoffs are still there for them to take but like their WR I think they ‘lose it in the lights’.
    Like this buy the 1/2.

    Sunday Night Game
    Philly @ NY Giants
    Again no spread but Vick is hurt. If vick plays he won’t be in long against this Giants team. They have a knack for hurting QB’s. For the GMEN to stay ahead of dallas they need a win.
    Will wait on points but like gmen to win.

    Monday Night Game
    KC @ New England -14.5 O/U 48
    Wow. This looked bad a week ago looks even worse now. Does Cassel’s backup provide the spark they need? Not looking likely. Hard to bet against the pats in this one no matter the line. Still always good to buy that 1/2.

    Picks so far
    Jets -4.5
    jets/broncos Under 41

    Good luck all. and please post your thoughts.

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Nov 2005
    It would be just like the Chargers to win this one. They seem to do better when nobody expects much out of them. I like SD +4.
    Four of Arizona's 6 losses have been by 4 pts or less. Skelton is 2-0 as the starter. The 49ers have a 5 game lead and only 2 of their 8 wins have been by more than 10, but...SF is 7-1-1 ATS, but....this is the largest spread so far I believe. I like ARI +10.
    BTW, it looks like the Jets are -5.5 now.

  3. #3
    Join Date
    Sep 2010
    wow yep now up to -6
    Getting a little action there I suppose. Hope it isn't a trap game.

    Good points with AZ think you convinced me if I choose a side it'll be them.

  4. #4
    Join Date
    Sep 2011
    I like your picks- this is a tough week.
    Seattle beat two teams they shouldn't have (NYG, Bal) and held their own with ATL. The games they lost big in PIT & SF were to stellar D's. Also the story with a 10 point loss to DAL. Basically Seattle's D is underrated and should hold S. Jackson 80-100 yards, and keep the mediocre Bradford to 200 yards. However, i don't think that St. Louie can return the favor, and Marshawn Lynch eats them alive!

  5. #5
    Join Date
    Sep 2010
    already have jets locked at -4.5 and under 41

    adding to that my picks for this week. Remember I don't wager on all of them some I do parlay, some I tease and some I just end up staying away from. These are the ones I like the most the ones I chose from.

    Washington +7.5
    nice, may want to look into Washington +7.5
    that was the line last I check at least. I've heard people say +9 and +7 so....
    When was washington last good?
    Dallas has been at it's worst this and last year.
    since 2001 dallas has won by 7 or more pts 4 out of 21 times.
    They tend to play close and that means I'll take the points.

    Washington +7.5
    arizonia +9.5
    st louis -2 I think seattle will be a bit worn down from that baltimore game.
    oakland -1.5
    jacksonville -1
    cincinatti +7
    atlanta -6 (this one a little scary. So long as they show up they get this)
    cincy/balt over 40.5
    carolina/detroit over 47

    good luck

  6. #6
    Join Date
    Sep 2010
    and today was my birthday so naturallly the cowgirls won and the giants lost and I'm down on the weekend.


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