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  1. #1
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    Thursday Night NFL - Jets (5-4) at Broncos (4-5) - Discussion

    Current line - NYJ -6.5 O/U 40

    Sandwich game for the Jets in between 3 divisional games (Buffalo, NE last 2 weeks and Buffalo next week). The Jets are just 1-3 on the road this year losing at Oakland, Baltimore and New England and winning at Buffalo.
    Denver is surprisingly just a game out of first having won 3 of their last 4 games.
    There may be a lot of running in this game based on the recent game plans of both teams. A rather large spread for the Jets to cover based on their road performance on the road so far.
    I am leaning Denver and have already played a 7 pt teaser Den +13.5 and OV 33. I may even buy a 1/2 pt and play Denver +7.
    Prediction
    NYJ 24
    DEN 20

  2. #2
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    Denver is in the same situational sandwich, Oak,KC and next San Diego.

    I dont think Jets are looking ahead to Buffalo since they just crushed them so they are probally over confident if anything for that match up. I feel the Jets will bounce back from a poor performance VS Brady, the Jets gave that game away with sloppy play.

    Denver has been playing over their head winning 2 division games on the road.
    leaning Jets at this moment not sure yet.

  3. #3
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    I see the Jets putting 8 or 9 into the box and have a spy on Tebow. Must force Tebow to throw, which will be interesting see with NYJ corners. Plus, no Moreno and McGahee is questionable. So it will be the Lance Ball show.

    I see the Jets winning 24-7.

  4. #4
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    i agree with taxman. If you tease I'd probably go with jets +1 and under 47 (or 6pt tease)
    I have this 2 straight bets jets -6, under 41 and a parlay placed early jets -4.5/under43

    They need wins and they won't take this lightly. Pats game was a let down game after their big win in buffalo. This is bounce back. Tebow beat who? Raiders with palmer in his first start in a long time. KC team that is absolutely pathetic right now.
    Jets lost to oakland when they were very good. New England who is very good. Baltimore who people are looking to make a superbowl run.
    Not an even comparison.
    I see denver getting blown up. That run only tactic won't work. It already killed one RB and the other is running on fumes. With this pass D tebow will have trouble in the air and crawling up the field isn't going to net them many points. Jets will be methodical with some passing and ground and pound. I think they will manage the game and a 24-7 win sounds about right. maybe 27-10.
    Last edited by resteasy; 11-17-2011 at 01:31 AM. Reason: numbers were wrong

  5. #5
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    Broncos will try to run the pigskin at all costs and shorten this game as much as possible. I do not see them having a very good offensive night here. Jets defense does what I think they will and this also stays under.

  6. #6
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    Did anyone else hear the Dan Patrick/Rich Eisen interview this morning?

    Rich Eisen said "Ryan wrote a book in '99 'Inside the 46 Defense' that had 20 pages on how to stop the option".

    The Jets are going to put 9 in the box and challenge Denver to throw.

  7. #7
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    That system was actually invented by his Dad, Buddy.

    I know I'm probably in the minority, but I just can't
    stand these late season Thursday night games. Mostly
    bad football.
    Still can't stay away, so I'm going with the over tonight.
    Would love to see the Broncos put in Orton for several
    series and see if it can add a spark. Why not?

  8. #8
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    I know the 46 very well. That '85 season was outstanding. Was fortuante enough to go to the Atlanta game where the killed the QB and I think held the Falcons to a Tebowesque 3 completions for less than 20 yards. But factor in the sack and the Falcons were net negative passing yards. That defense was sick!

  9. #9
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    Well, nobody liked my last Thursday pick of Oakland + @ SD either so I guess there's still a glimmer of hope

  10. #10
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    I think the JEts smash them tonight but hate playing favs on thursday night games.

    A couple props i see...

    Tebow rushing TD "yes" at +125

    Tebow pass completions UNDER 10.5 (-120)...Fox is not shy saying they don't like to pass. Under may be a good bet?

  11. #11
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    Based upon my data, it appears that as of today, there have been 31 Thursday night football games.

    Road team is 12-19 SU

    FWIW, road favorites are 6-3 SU, 5-4 ATS:
    Date Non-Sun Team Opponent Point Spread Team Score Opponent Score S/U Record ATS Record O/U Line Total Points O/U
    11/22/07 Thurs. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS ATLANTA -14 31 13 W W 42.5 44 O
    12/10/09 Thurs. PITTSBURGH STEELERS CLEVELAND -9.5 6 13 L L 34 19 U
    12/20/07 Thurs. PITTSBURGH STEELERS ST. LOUIS -8 41 24 W W 43 65 O
    12/18/08 Thurs. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS JACKSONVILLE -6 31 24 W W 44 55 O
    11/26/09 Thurs. NEW YORK GIANTS DENVER -4.5 6 26 L L 43.5 32 U
    12/17/09 Thurs. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS JACKSONVILLE -3.5 35 31 W W 43 66 O
    12/03/09 Thurs. NEW YORK JETS BUFFALO -3.5 19 13 W W 37 32 U
    12/09/10 Thurs. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS TENNESSEE -3 30 28 W L 44 58 O
    12/13/07 Thurs. DENVER BRONCOS HOUSTON -2.5 13 31 L L 47.5 44 U

  12. #12
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    TaxMan, you amaze me with the kind of data you have thanks for sharing valuable data with us

  13. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by woodee12 View Post
    I think the JEts smash them tonight but hate playing favs on thursday night games.

    A couple props i see...

    Tebow rushing TD "yes" at +125

    Tebow pass completions UNDER 10.5 (-120)...Fox is not shy saying they don't like to pass. Under may be a good bet?
    Legends has it at 11.5 & I thought it was at 12.5 earlier

  14. #14
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    I've seen it at O/U 13

    last week 2 completions. weeks prior? 10, 18, 13 oak, det, miami
    so no idea. If they get down then he'll have to throw. Maybe be checking to his TE a lot which counts as completions.
    I don't like it.

  15. #15
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    My system has the Broncos favored by -.5 a point. Yeah I know sounds off. I number crunch the previous 14 games and weighted towards the most recent games. Points; yardage; turnovers; and strength of schedule are just a few items I put in my formula. I adjust for home team (back to back home or away games) and distance traveled and from there I come up with my own number.

    Spits out Broncos -.5 point (7 point difference) and a 3*** pick for the week and one of my mock Hilton picks. (Still shaking my head on this one),

  16. #16
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    Dragon you are the Thursday man !
    Woodee gets the props as well !
    Dinger no need to shake !

    From now on I'm going to post how bad Thursday games are.

  17. #17
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    Hard to describe this one.

  18. #18
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    I'm still shaking my head!

    Sanchez gives up a TD and the Jets blitz an option QB run! Talk about panic, they had their pants pulled down on that one. Guess what, now they lose the tie breaker to the Broncos! At least Rex will have a few extra days to chirp how great his team is, I mean should be!

    J E T S Fraud fraud fraud fraud!!!

  19. #19
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    Despite everything, I thought it was a quite entertaining game. I put 2 units down on Denver +3.5 sometime in the 3rd Q so turned out OK despite not hitting 33 pts.
    Last edited by dragon1952; 11-17-2011 at 10:50 PM.

  20. #20
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    I didn't even believe my own pick of the Broncos...but they covered and won s/u.

    For the record I had the Raiders also last week.

    Here is another head scratcher is my system has the Dolphins -9. 7.5 difference then Vegas and my pick of the week. The system calculates the Bills as a fraud. Also factor back to back home versus back to back road games.

  21. #21
    If Rex had Orton as a back-up to Sanchez, I think he would have put him in! But Brunnel is 41 so he has to stick with Sanchez. He is never going to win a Super Bowl with Sanchez. He has to be able to see that now. How long will he go with him?

    Jets D just let the Broncos walk down the field. Prevent? Or they were just gassed.

  22. #22
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    Denver hadn't done shit offensively. I think Rex thought he didn't have to do much defensively to hold them. Tebow magic again.

  23. #23
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    good job those who called denver.
    I had the jets on a couple but also had the under. Still down a little going into the weekend now. Always a bummer.
    Maybe I should take another look at dinger's system picks.

  24. #24
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    What the heck some bad passes but Id sign him as a running back any day.

  25. #25
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    I agree Widestrides......Sanchez is in the same mold as Matt Ryan, and Joe Flacco......They'll never win the big one but usually have one good game out of every five, and manage to hold their ground.........That's about it.....In a nutshell, they suck.

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