Kansas City @ New England MNF Discussion Thread

[Taxman]

Currently the line is NE -17.5 O/U 46.5 The line jumped from 14.5

KC is injury riddled. The public is behind NE.

Enourmous advantage at QB for NE. IMO, running game is equal. NE has possession receivers, KC has vertical threats w/ Bowe & Breaston.

As of now, I am leaning KC as 18 points is boat load to cover considering NE's defense has given the most yards per game.

NE is last against the pass and 13th against the run.

But really, is NE worthy of last pass D? Were their opponent passing because they were down and playing catch up??

Game 1: Henne 419 (MIA was trailing 28-17 start of 4th)
Game 2: Rivers 378 (SD was trailing 20-14 start of 4th)
Game 3: Fitzpatrick 367
Game 4: Campbell 344
Game 5: Sanchez 166
Game 6: Romo 317
Game 7: Big Ben 365
Game 8: Eli 250
Game 9: Sanchez 306 (NYJ was trailing 23-9 start of 4th)

Can Palko throw for 275+?? Or will this be a grind the clock game and play keep away from NE?

If KC can put up 2 TDs, NE has to score more than 31!

[dragon1952]

I think it comes down to the KC O-Line and how well they can protect Palko. NE was all over Mark Sanchez last week sacking him 5 times and forcing 3 TO's, even though Sanchez threw for over 300 yds and 2 TD's he still got beat by 21. And that's Sanchez playing against a familiar foe. Palko's had 13 career pass attempts. The Chiefs have given up 22 sacks and 44 QB hits, which is in about the middle of the pack. Palko is probably a little more mobile than Cassell but I guess it comes down to how quick he can react. The Chiefs defense is going to have to play like Philly did last night to keep this from being a blowout. The KC offense has only scored 13 pts total over the past 2 games though and that obviously ain't going to cut it. This will be the Chiefs 1st road game since Oct 23rd so they won't have that huge home field advantage. I've got NE -8 to finish off a 7pt teaser so not sure if I'll do anything else, but I don't really see how KC can stay within 3 TD's unless 1) NE doesn't take them seriously, plus 2) KC defense plays a hell of a game.
NE has scored 30 or more in 6 of 9 games and they have scored 38 and 35 vs teams with losing records. I think KC has trouble finding the end zone tonight so I'll predict,
NE 34
KC 13

[xbigpappa]

Is the Pats Old D coordinator the Coordinator for KC?

[dragon1952]

Is the Pats Old D coordinator the Coordinator for KC?

That was a very long time ago....like 12 years or so.

[resteasy]

by the way, prop bets I think are worth a look at are:
Total sacks Over 3.5 like this one a lot
Tom Brady over 2.5 td's this one a little unsure about. He obviously could but doesn't mean he will. They could eat up clock and run it in.

[dragon1952]

I think Belichick (sp?) likes to instill fear and doubt in future opponents so I can't see them running and killing clock. I think they'll run up the score if they can. I like both of those props.
A couple more I like,
Will either team score in 1st 6 minutes of the game - YES -125
Longest FG of the game - OVER 44.5 -115 (if this quickly turns into a rout then this might be more difficult)
Tyler Palko -what will he throw first INT or TD? - INT -110
Dexter McCluster - total rushing + receiving yds - OV 49.5 -140

[resteasy]

McCluster's rushing yards aren't high. Heck last couple games they've been like half that. If this does turn into a rout then this is even harder to cover. Saw it, investigated and stayed away.
longest FG no idea so not for me
palko ... well their pass D isn't great. If I had seen the guy play before I'd weigh in but really I can't.
score in first 6 min I think I like

[dragon1952]

Those are combined rushing/receiving yds. McCluster had 93 combined yds last game and 44 yds the game before that. They are trying to get him more involved.

[resteasy]

ahhh combined. That makes much more sense then. Yeah go for it.
I'm liking NE -17. Yeah it's a huge line but at home they should take care of this. Look what happened last monday night. 17pts is a lot but it's not unreasonable.

[Taxman]

Took Palko O 220.5

If Jason Campbell can go for 300+. Plus, I think there'll be garbage yards in the fourth.

[dragon1952]

Gonna be a cold one.....around 20F....brrrr!

[garister]

I keep remembering Green Bay going into New england with Flynn, nobody knew about him and he played really well and covered a big spread.
But Dragon's The Prime time NFL man and NE probally crushes it.

[Carpet]

the only reason I took NE was they are a better team by 14 points for sure at home, but just never know how Monday night football brings out the best in the most unknown players.

[resteasy]

good job if you took that McCluster prop.
Hit the sacks prop already. Happy about that.
now lets go NE!

[resteasy]

good night. hit NE-17, parlay -17 under 48, over 3.5 sacks and over 23 2nd half.
Good to have nights like these.