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This sometimes allows for some very lucrative wagers, so let me start us off:
Vegas says:
Green Bay will rest starters against Detroit. Line is Det -2½
From ESPN: McCarthy continued his tough talk Sunday night, but for the first time offered a caveat that suggests he won't do anything rash, especially with quarterback Aaron Rodgers, to secure a victory over the Lions.
"I'm not going to stand here and tell you we're going to give away an opportunity to win a game," McCarthy said. "We're going to play to win the game next week. I'm not real excited about a division opponent coming in here and thinking we're not going to do everything we can to get to 15-1. But health is an issue for us and I think that's stating the obvious."
Translation: we are not playing to win, as we have zero to gain and can avoid any potentially catastrophic injuries by playing backups. Time to get healthy for the playoffs.
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Houston will rest starters against Tennessee Line is Tenn - 1½, I made the Texans 6½ point favorite.
No news, but it looks to me like Houston is locked into the #3 seed no matter what happens. Check out the ESPN Playoff Machine
IF NO wins, they will like as not rest starters against Carolina (No Line). Just a guess at this point. I make Carolina +7
Tampa at ATLANTA (no line). I make Atlanta -14, but if they lose at NO tonight, they are playing for nothing, just like the Saints next week if they win tonight. I anticipate both teams resting for the playoffs. The big question here is can Tampa's starters beat Atlanta's backups? Usually the answer is yes, because once the message is sent that the game means nothing, the players play like it doesn't matter.
One real interesting game is Jacksonville at Indianapolis. Line is Jacksonville -4½. In many ways this is a good wager as the Colts are the only team I have singled out that are also on the road, meaning they don't have paying fans to think about IF they decide to "rest" in order to get #1 pick Luck. Seems to me Vegas thinks the Colts will take a dive to secure that #1 pick. Lets face the facts, Indy NEEDS a franchise QB to replace the aging and now recuperating Peyton Manning. Luck, if not selected to succeed him, can also bring a sweet trade deal as many NFL teams would pay dearly for the right to draft him.
Indy Article about the Colts taking a dive to get the #1pick
OK - keep in mind, NO coach is going to come right out and say "We are playing to lose." You have to read between the lines because the NFL simply can't have teams taking a dive. The problem is, every person will act in their own self-interest. I would bet a significant amount that Colt owner Jim Irsay will make it crystal clear to HC Caldwell, he is NOT to win the game at Jacksonville. If you owned the Colts, what would you do?
I think the bigger question in this game is can Jacksonville score enough to cover 4½, because rookie QB Gabbert has been very unimpressive thus far.
OK men - correct me where I am wrong and add your thoughts to this last game of the year scenarios.
Vegas says:
Green Bay will rest starters against Detroit. Line is Det -2½
From ESPN: McCarthy continued his tough talk Sunday night, but for the first time offered a caveat that suggests he won't do anything rash, especially with quarterback Aaron Rodgers, to secure a victory over the Lions.
"I'm not going to stand here and tell you we're going to give away an opportunity to win a game," McCarthy said. "We're going to play to win the game next week. I'm not real excited about a division opponent coming in here and thinking we're not going to do everything we can to get to 15-1. But health is an issue for us and I think that's stating the obvious."
Translation: we are not playing to win, as we have zero to gain and can avoid any potentially catastrophic injuries by playing backups. Time to get healthy for the playoffs.
Story Link
Houston will rest starters against Tennessee Line is Tenn - 1½, I made the Texans 6½ point favorite.
No news, but it looks to me like Houston is locked into the #3 seed no matter what happens. Check out the ESPN Playoff Machine
IF NO wins, they will like as not rest starters against Carolina (No Line). Just a guess at this point. I make Carolina +7
Tampa at ATLANTA (no line). I make Atlanta -14, but if they lose at NO tonight, they are playing for nothing, just like the Saints next week if they win tonight. I anticipate both teams resting for the playoffs. The big question here is can Tampa's starters beat Atlanta's backups? Usually the answer is yes, because once the message is sent that the game means nothing, the players play like it doesn't matter.
One real interesting game is Jacksonville at Indianapolis. Line is Jacksonville -4½. In many ways this is a good wager as the Colts are the only team I have singled out that are also on the road, meaning they don't have paying fans to think about IF they decide to "rest" in order to get #1 pick Luck. Seems to me Vegas thinks the Colts will take a dive to secure that #1 pick. Lets face the facts, Indy NEEDS a franchise QB to replace the aging and now recuperating Peyton Manning. Luck, if not selected to succeed him, can also bring a sweet trade deal as many NFL teams would pay dearly for the right to draft him.
Indy Article about the Colts taking a dive to get the #1pick
OK - keep in mind, NO coach is going to come right out and say "We are playing to lose." You have to read between the lines because the NFL simply can't have teams taking a dive. The problem is, every person will act in their own self-interest. I would bet a significant amount that Colt owner Jim Irsay will make it crystal clear to HC Caldwell, he is NOT to win the game at Jacksonville. If you owned the Colts, what would you do?
I think the bigger question in this game is can Jacksonville score enough to cover 4½, because rookie QB Gabbert has been very unimpressive thus far.
OK men - correct me where I am wrong and add your thoughts to this last game of the year scenarios.
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