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Week #17 "Mock Hilton Contest" ..........Post Your 5 Picks Here

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  • #31
    Well done. Any hints about your system? Was it a numbers based system that crunched stats? Or was it a trends system?

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    • #32
      Congrats to all the winners for a job well done. I hope we have this contest next year...Job well done "THE BOYS"

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      • #33
        Originally posted by laxsfo99 View Post
        6 RAMS* +10½

        14 PANTHERS +8½

        15 TITANS -3

        27 RAIDERS* - 3

        32 SEAHAWKS +2½


        The Boys, your new scorekeeper "The Kidd" equals redux xbigpappa.

        laxsfo99
        lax is "redux xbigpappa" a good thing? I hope so...for an 89-year-old i try to do the best i can with this voice activated typing system i have, but every time i belch i get a typo!

        i hope these final standings meet to everyone's satisfaction...especially the money winners...congrats to all and to The Boys for a well run contest this season!


        MOCK HILTON 2011 FINAL STANDINGS (UNOFFICIAL)
        1. matwellin 52.5
        2. ssantam 51
        3. Carpet 50.5
        4. resteasy 50
        5. Monroe Eaford 49
        6. bobomax 48
        6. cford1 48
        8. bigdogdan2 47.5
        9. atman 46
        9. bret3518 46
        9. SteamRoxorz 46
        12. The Kidd 45.5
        12. Dinger 45.5
        12. OCK 45.5
        15. Krichinsky 45
        15. TheBlackCat 45
        17. The Boys 44.5
        18. Jason Daubenspeck 43.5
        18. Oldluds 43.5
        20. citizenc78 43
        21. Taxman 42.5
        21. winandwin 42.5
        23. becks 41
        23. laxsfo99 41
        25. dragon1952 40.5
        25. woodee12 40.5
        27. widestrides 40
        28. stardust 38
        29. pjt95 36.5
        30. gamestar 35
        30. hihosilver 35
        32. chrny 32.5
        33. JimmyMac 31.5
        34. LSUDog 27
        35. sacii 25.5
        36. clueless13 24.5
        37. gearchanger 23.5
        38. crash1500 22.5
        39. red raider 84 22
        40. dkp 19
        41. xbigpappa 17.5
        42. oakas 16
        43. sherako 15

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        • #34
          The Formula

          Sure, my system is based on overall offensive and defensive yards per game. ATS records and stats, as well as betting trends don't mean a whole lot when the variable surrounding each individual situation are different. I approach each game as a unique match-up. We rank the offense based on RYPG versus the DYPG, and key personnel who got those stats to where they are. The same with passing. The differential numbers are accumulated. Top 10 offense gets 3 TD's, top 15 get 2, and top 25 get 1. Do for passing as well. Then bring in the Defenses they are playing and subtract the same -3 TD's for Top 10, -2 for Top 15 ect.. Do for pass d as well. I do not swing for home field unless the team is traveling across country, or have played on a short week. I feel like in modern football using home field as a full 3 point swing is like telling people that Santa Claus does exist. Additionally, the superstar factor doesn't change a whole lot in my book. Not as much as the health of the lineman in the system. Successful stats/results only carry over if the team is still in tact. It also doesn't mean your choice hinges on one guy (Fred Jackson)
          Here is an Example to further explain the research: SD versus Oak. SD Pass Off 6th (21 points) minus Oak Pass D 27th (0 points) gives us SD 21 points pass O, SD rush O 16th (14 points) minus Oak Rush D 27th (0 Points) give us 14 plus 21 passing, for a score of 35 points total. (they actually had 38) Oakland Pass off 11th for (14 points) minus SD pass D 13th (14 points) gives them 0. Oakland Rush Off 7th (21 points), so 21 minus SD rush D 20th (7 points) gives us a total of 14 points for Oakland, and a score of 35-14. I give them 3 FG because of Janikowski, and the strength of the SD Def. Final score prediction 35-26 San Diego. I do this then look at the spread (+3 SD) and figure the differential 38-26 which gives this game a perceived value of 12. My game of the week, which ended 38-26, right on time.

          I was by no means just guessing, and i learned to play with statistics not heart.

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