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Might as well try again. Last week went 2-2 hitting with Houston and NY Giants and losing with NO and Pittsburgh. Detroit was in it for quite a while leading at HT and down just 3 going into the 4th Q but gave up 21 4th Q points to miss the cover by a TD. I thought Denver wouldn't be able to move the ball much against Pittsburgh and they put up nearly 450 yds of offense with Tebow having his best ever NFL passing day. Go figure.
Saturday -
San Francisco +4 vs New Orleans - The 49ers gave up more than 21 points in a game just 3 times all season (and only 1 at home) and one of them was the last game of the season when, leading 34-13, they gave up 2 TD's in garbage time in the last 5 min of the St Louis game. The Saints were 5-3 on the road with 2 of the wins being by just 3 and another by just 5. The 3 pt OT win in Atlanta might have been a gift with the Falcons going for it on 4th down deep in their own territory and giving the Saints a freebie winning FG. This will be the Saints toughest test all year, playing on the road against a rested team that has the best defense in the NFC. The Saints haven't fared well on the west coast trips lately losing to both Arizona and Seattle last year, and winning at San Francisco by 3 on a game ending FG. The Saints have been barely west of their own city this year with the trip to St Louis being maybe a few miles further west. This one scares me a bit because New Orleans is playing so well lately but they have mostly been at home since their bye with 6 out of 8 games at the Super Dome. I think the Saints pull it out, but barely.
NO 23 SF 20
New England -13.5 vs Denver - Another rested team playing a team it has already beaten by 18 on the road. The Pats are the best offense in the AFC by a good margin, averaging 32 ppg and totaling over 100 more points than anyone else. During their current 8 game winning streak they have averaged nearly 36.5 ppg. I think Belichick should be able to devise something to keep Tebow in check a little better this time around and am leaning OV in this one.
NE 41 DEN 17
Sunday -
Houston +7.5 @ Baltimore - The 2nd and 3rd ranked scoring defenses in the AFC with Baltimore giving up an average of just 16.6 ppg and Houston just 17.4 ppg. The presence of WR Andre Johnson should help Yates immensely. AJ caught 5 of 9 for 90 yds and a TD last week against a pretty good Cincy defense which helped open up the running game. He also had a couple drops on passes right on the money, but hopefully with another week he'll be in better football shape after returning from the injury. Houston did not have Johnson in the previous meeting earlier this year at Baltimore. Baltimore scored 29 in that game but 15 on FG's. The Ravens were up by a score of just 16-14 entering the 4th Q. I think Houston keeps it close this time and am leaning OV 36.
BAL 23 HOU 20
Green Bay -7 vs NY Giants - Recommending buying the hook here for GB -7. The Packers won every home game that was meaningful by 8 pts or more (8, 26, 21, 35, 9, 30 and 14). They averaged 40 ppg at home. The Giants kept it close earlier in the year in New York but the Giants got an easy 7 when they intercepted a Rodger's pass deep in GB territory ending up with the ball on the 12 yd line. Rodgers only had 6 picks all year out of 502 pass attempts , which equates to a miniscule 1.2% of his passes, so I don't think giving up one that leads to 7 pts again is very probable. I like a rested GB team at home and also am picking OV 53. The only game in GB this year that was less than 52 was the 24-3 win over the win-less Rams. The other 7 totals were 76, 72, 52, 61, 62, 56 and 86!
Saturday -
San Francisco +4 vs New Orleans - The 49ers gave up more than 21 points in a game just 3 times all season (and only 1 at home) and one of them was the last game of the season when, leading 34-13, they gave up 2 TD's in garbage time in the last 5 min of the St Louis game. The Saints were 5-3 on the road with 2 of the wins being by just 3 and another by just 5. The 3 pt OT win in Atlanta might have been a gift with the Falcons going for it on 4th down deep in their own territory and giving the Saints a freebie winning FG. This will be the Saints toughest test all year, playing on the road against a rested team that has the best defense in the NFC. The Saints haven't fared well on the west coast trips lately losing to both Arizona and Seattle last year, and winning at San Francisco by 3 on a game ending FG. The Saints have been barely west of their own city this year with the trip to St Louis being maybe a few miles further west. This one scares me a bit because New Orleans is playing so well lately but they have mostly been at home since their bye with 6 out of 8 games at the Super Dome. I think the Saints pull it out, but barely.
NO 23 SF 20
New England -13.5 vs Denver - Another rested team playing a team it has already beaten by 18 on the road. The Pats are the best offense in the AFC by a good margin, averaging 32 ppg and totaling over 100 more points than anyone else. During their current 8 game winning streak they have averaged nearly 36.5 ppg. I think Belichick should be able to devise something to keep Tebow in check a little better this time around and am leaning OV in this one.
NE 41 DEN 17
Sunday -
Houston +7.5 @ Baltimore - The 2nd and 3rd ranked scoring defenses in the AFC with Baltimore giving up an average of just 16.6 ppg and Houston just 17.4 ppg. The presence of WR Andre Johnson should help Yates immensely. AJ caught 5 of 9 for 90 yds and a TD last week against a pretty good Cincy defense which helped open up the running game. He also had a couple drops on passes right on the money, but hopefully with another week he'll be in better football shape after returning from the injury. Houston did not have Johnson in the previous meeting earlier this year at Baltimore. Baltimore scored 29 in that game but 15 on FG's. The Ravens were up by a score of just 16-14 entering the 4th Q. I think Houston keeps it close this time and am leaning OV 36.
BAL 23 HOU 20
Green Bay -7 vs NY Giants - Recommending buying the hook here for GB -7. The Packers won every home game that was meaningful by 8 pts or more (8, 26, 21, 35, 9, 30 and 14). They averaged 40 ppg at home. The Giants kept it close earlier in the year in New York but the Giants got an easy 7 when they intercepted a Rodger's pass deep in GB territory ending up with the ball on the 12 yd line. Rodgers only had 6 picks all year out of 502 pass attempts , which equates to a miniscule 1.2% of his passes, so I don't think giving up one that leads to 7 pts again is very probable. I like a rested GB team at home and also am picking OV 53. The only game in GB this year that was less than 52 was the 24-3 win over the win-less Rams. The other 7 totals were 76, 72, 52, 61, 62, 56 and 86!
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