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NFL Playoffs - Conference championship round

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  • NFL Playoffs - Conference championship round

    Current line -
    New England -7.5 vs Baltimore 50.5
    San Francisco -2.5 vs New York Giants 42.5

    Picks -
    Baltimore +7.5 @ New England - Baltimore is a top 3 defense in many categories including points per game (16.6), yds per game (288) and passing yds per game (196). The Pats are ranked 31st on defense in yards allowed per game, but they have only given up an average of 21.4 ppg. They are ranked 3rd in scoring offense with an average of 32.1 ppg, while Baltimore scores an average of 23.6 ppg. That's an 8.5 ppg difference and we have a line of 7.5. That's just looking at offense though. With Baltimore's defense giving up an average of just 16.6 ppg you would think that New England might not be able to generate quite their average output, and they can be held in that category. The Pats scored just 17 against Pittsburgh in Week 8 and then just 20 the following week vs the NY Giants. I think getting 7.5 pts with such a great defense in freezing weather (and maybe snow) is a pretty good deal, especially when the opponent gives up the 2nd most yds in the NFL. Baltimore should be able to move the ball and score, and they have a great RB in Ray Rice. A great defense, a great RB and freezing weather should be a key to keeping this game close.
    New England 27 Baltimore 24
    NY Giants +3 @ San Francisco - Buy the 1/2 pt. The Giants played at SF in Week 10, losing 27-20. The first 6 scores of that game were all FG's. SF led 9-6 at HT and then 12-6 shortly into the 3rd Q on another FG. The Giants scored on a TD near the end of the 3rd Q to take a 13-12 lead entering the 4th Q. The 49ers then took advantage of a short field scoring their 1st TD on a 50 yd drive before intercepting Manning and getting another short field at their own 17 yd line, scoring on the very next play. The Giants then went 80 yds for a TD to make it 27-20, held SF on the next couple possessions before driving to the SF 10 yd line with 37 secs left in the game where Manning's pass was batted down on 4th and 2. Bottom line, this was a very close game throughout.
    The Giants were without RB Ahmad Bradshaw in that game. In addition, it was Hakeem Nicks first game back after sitting out the previous week with a hamstring injury and he was not at 100%. The Giants held the edge in most categories except in TO's where Manning had 2 picks and Alex Smith just 1. One of the Manning picks led directly to 7 pts. The Giants held the edge in FD's 21-16, offensive yds 395-305, rushing 93-77, passing 311-242, plays 70-52, 3rd down efficiency 50% (7 of 14) -27% (3 of 11) and TOP 34:37-25:23. The 49ers lost Gore for the 2nd H due to injury but he was held to 6 carries for 0 yds in the 1st H. The Giants are playing really well right now, as are the 49ers. This should be another very close game that could go either way. The Giants gave the 49ers two very short fields in the first game (at the 50 and at the 17) and still had a shot to tie it at the end.
    In two playoff games the NY Giants have held 2 very good offenses to a total of 22 pts. If they play defense like they have the last 2 games, I'll gladly take them at +3.
    NY Giants 24 SF 20

  • #2
    nice write ups. I'll wait a bit longer before doing mine.
    One thing to note, in SF/NYG I too have them scoring around 40 points BUT the weather may be calling for some heavy rain that day so it's worth keeping an eye on that. I was thinking of a tease to +10 over 35, maybe mixing with pats -.5 along with straight plays but that forecast has me weary of such a score.

    I have to look into games with rain, especially in the west. The run game on either side won't be doing much anyhow so no real effect there. WR's slipping can be an issue. O and D-lines will have footing issues so QB's may have a little more time. Then of course kicking becomes a bit more troublesome if it rains hard.

    Thoughts on if it rains what effect that may have?

    Comment


    • #3
      I am going chalky for this weekend games. I like NE and SF to both win.

      I see a little shoot out in the NE game as Baltimore may be able to throw on NE secondary so the over is looking good there but the Pats will win on the last posession.

      In the SF/NYG I have to look for the SF D to step up and shut down the Giants attack. This is not Green Bay's D that Eli will be facing and I think his recievers may struggle a bit.

      I do have a future bet on the NYG to make it to the super bowl at 10-1 I played before the playoff started so going to hedge that a bit with SF.

      Comment


      • #4
        Here is what I think in 3 words DEFENSE WINS GAMES.

        Baltimore is playing solid defense and I love getting 7.5 in this game.

        SF is also playing solid football on all sides of the ball, and at home playing for all the NFC marbles I am laying with the niners.

        Comment


        • #5
          I like BAL getting 7.5 as well just too many points for such a good defense..NE Defense is not good and i think that BAL Offense can score enough points to keep it closer then 7

          I like SF...they are just playing solid defense and their offense is doing enough i think playing at home and with the way they finished the NO game their momentum will carry over..NY is playing great football but they havnt been playing against the best defenses lately...i am impressed by the way that NYG defense has been playing but i think with the play calling and smash mouth offense that SF can put up some numbers...another big thing is the weather its looking like it might rain which will also play in SF favor the Giants love to throw the ball and they will not be able to run the ball at all against SF..the rain will create turnovers and SF has the favor in that category

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          • #6
            Weather should be good in Foxboro, not so good in SF. Talked to a friend today in the Bay Area. Rained hard last night but not today, and is supposed to rain again tomorrow and possibly pretty windy. He is very familiar with Candlestick and says it should be wet and muddy even though it's been covered. I still like NY Giants +3 (buy a 1/2 or point), maybe even more now, and also the UN 42. A 7 pt teaser NYG +9 and UN 49 sounds great.

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            • #7
              4 team 7 pt teaser
              BAL +14
              Bal/NE OV 43
              NYG +9
              NYG/SF UN 49

              I will also split these into 2 7pt teasers
              BAL +14 and OV 43
              NYG +9 and UN 49
              Last edited by dragon1952; 01-22-2012, 12:11 AM.

              Comment


              • #8
                I like the 49ers as the Giants are playing back to back to back road games PLUS having to travel 2,000 plus miles.

                Throw-up a little stomach food and a splash of jet lag with a twist of windy weather.

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                • #9
                  Well actually just back to back. They played at home vs Atlanta in the wild card round.

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                  • #10
                    Nice hit on your teasers!

                    Actually all teasers won! You could not have lost a teaser today no matter who you picked or whether you picked over or under.

                    I felt like the lines were sharp so I should have gone for that.

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                    • #11
                      Yeah....I know :^ ) When I was talking to my Bay Area friend yesterday I said 7 pt teaser either side and UN 49 for the SF/NYG game, and maybe both sides and UN 49. Unfortunately I didn't go with both sides.
                      Last edited by dragon1952; 01-22-2012, 10:43 PM.

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                      • #12
                        Unbelievable that the NE/BAL game didn't go over 43....so many chances.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          yeah had 43 on a couple teasers too which pushed
                          but hit with ne -1, gmen +8 and over 35.

                          Good job on your picks.

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