Monday Hoops

[woodee12]

Start discussion here...

Will be back shortly to post my thoughts. Nothing really jumping out at me right now.

Texas/Mizzou
WV/Pitt are the bug games tonight.

[woodee12]

Early lean on Tenny State -2 at home vs. Austin Peay.

Have to dig a little deeper on this one. Peay already beat State at home this year by 6. This conference is very home team friendly.

[OCK]

I have been lurking on the daily basketball threads lately and I like garister's plays on the Totals, as well as the plays on the teams playing 3 nights in a row. I have played several games using both of these ideas and done well.

Based on garister's theory, it looks like there are 3 games tonight that look good for a totals play.

OKC and LAC UNDER 199; Minnesota and Houston Under 198.5; and San Antonio and Memphis OVER 189.5.

Garister correct me if I am wrong.

[garister]

I have been lurking on the daily basketball threads lately and I like garister's plays on the Totals, as well as the plays on the teams playing 3 nights in a row. I have played several games using both of these ideas and done well.

Based on garister's theory, it looks like there are 3 games tonight that look good for a totals play.

OKC and LAC UNDER 199; Minnesota and Houston Under 198.5; and San Antonio and Memphis OVER 189.5.

Garister correct me if I am wrong.

That would be correct, great I could take tomorrow off from posting since you got it down.
J/K
Ya and that OK/LAC could be like OK/GS and it went over, but I try to leave judgement out of it and just play what the numbers say cause its working so far.

I figure wooddee is gonna be on Pitt +5 1/2 since he thinks they are going to go on a run, but we shall wait and see.

I was liking SMS+2 1/2 until woodee stated that conference is Home team friendly so I'll stay away

No more NBA sides for me, no matter how smart I think I am . its just not profitable for me. Cant get the Lakers right, against them against the Clips=Lose, with them against MIl=Lose, then against them last night in minny=lose.

[Taxman]

I am shying away from NBA totals as well. But, what I have seen is that O is the play in the 1H and U the play in 2H. Though, I am only focusing on a few games, not all teams for the entire season.

Bulls/Heat: 107 1H, 83 2H
Boston/Orlando: 1H O, 2H Under (Orlando scoring less than 25 points in 2H)

I will stick with the back to back to back play.

[OCK]

No more NBA sides for me, no matter how smart I think I am . its just not profitable for me. Cant get the Lakers right, against them against the Clips=Lose, with them against MIl=Lose, then against them last night in minny=lose.

That is what I like about totals, you don't care who wins. You either want a lot of scoring, or little scoring.

[OCK]

But, what I have seen is that O is the play in the 1H and U the play in 2H. Though, I am only focusing on a few games, not all teams for the entire season.

While I have not tracked the games, my gut feeling tells me you are correct. I noticed a lot of games have had 50+ points scored in the first quarter, which would put them on pace for 200 points total. But the scoring definitely slowed down in the second half. The Boston/Orlando was a good example, but I doubt too many teams only score 8 points in the fourth quarter like Orlando did. They had a major meltdown in that game. I still cannot figure out how a team goes cold so fast.

[resteasy]

While I have not tracked the games, my gut feeling tells me you are correct. I noticed a lot of games have had 50+ points scored in the first quarter, which would put them on pace for 200 points total. But the scoring definitely slowed down in the second half. The Boston/Orlando was a good example, but I doubt too many teams only score 8 points in the fourth quarter like Orlando did. They had a major meltdown in that game. I still cannot figure out how a team goes cold so fast.

I was probably on them so that would explain it


likely shying away from today. only play I got is very very small on Eastern Illinois -2.5

[woodee12]

That Chicago game was a good example yesterday. High scoring 1st and low in the second.

Monday plays--

Tenny St -135 pk over Austin Peay

Texas +2 over Mizzou---Going against the public on a Big Monday play here. Mizzou is better but the Texas Freshman can hang as shown when they played KU. A lean on the OVER 144 too.

Milwaukee/Houston...NBA Monely line parlay.

Thats all for me today. Tenn State is my top play.

[woodee12]

Just noticed now that the line has shifted from Texas + to texas minus. Must be some sharp action coming in as the % is a lot higher on Mizzou at a 70% clip.

[Carpet]

Just noticed now that the line has shifted from Texas + to texas minus. Must be some sharp action coming in as the % is a lot higher on Mizzou at a 70% clip.

I need to jump onto this game with Texas.
Mizzou is 18-40 ATS last 58 road games, just not a good road team, combine that this will be the tigers fourth game in 9 days.

The longshorns are not as bad as the record indicates and the defense should give Missouri fits at home.

[resteasy]

here's a little writeup from a guy named yello on another board. Read it, sounded good. Take texas -1, under 145.

"Ok guys, if this write up fails to work, as I hope...either no more of these, or a small break...
Mizzou lost 11 straight road conference games when on 1 day of rest & they are also 0-8 su/ats in last 8 when favored by less than 4 in true road games. Texas is never an easy place to play, even against young longhorn teams. the longhorns still know how to play defense and how to defend their home court. They have 1 home loss this season and despite losing they never quit and made it close against a deeper and more talented Kansas squad.
it is a revenge situation for the home side on national tv & expect Texas to give 100% here.
Mizzou losing their mojo in last two games, converting only 10 of 40 three pointers, shooting 39.6% against txt and 40% against okst while allowing 45.5% against txt, 59.6% against okst and also 57.1% against baylor. against txt they were out rebounded by 7 and against okst they only had 8 assists on 26 baskets made.
Texas allowed 69 or less in last 11 home games and Mizzou is 0-9 ats in last 9 on the road when scoring 74 or less. Sorry if it seemed like I was rambling. "

[Taxman]

I need to jump onto this game with Texas.
Mizzou is 18-40 ATS last 58 road games, just not a good road team, combine that this will be the tigers fourth game in 9 days.

The longshorns are not as bad as the record indicates and the defense should give Missouri fits at home.

Mizzou did beat IA St. and dominated the Baylor game, both on the road. Lead Baylor by DD until the Bears mounted a furious comeback in the last minute by fouling and draining 3 pointers. This is Texas 4th game in 9 days as well.

[widestrides]

Just watched the first half. Missoo is a very smart and talented team. I think they pull away or at least maintain this lead.

I took Misso +2 and under 75 for the 2H.

GL

[woodee12]

I like the over in the Texas game. Over 74.5.
Texas shot like poo and think they heat up. Original line was 144 and now getting it at 124. Lots of value here in my eyes.