Interesting Early Lines for NCAA Tournament 2nd Round

[Taxman]

West Virginia/Gonzaga PK

Murray State -3 vs. Colorado State

Georgetown -3.5 vs Belmont

[Taxman]

I have parlayed Gonzaga, Murray State and Georgetown.

The Gonzaga/WV line is puzzling. Gonzaga is a very good team. I just cannot understand the line unless it is based upon both teams playing in Pittsburgh, considered game a home game for West Virgina? Is it because Gonzaga is going cross country? I'm just not a big fan of West Virginia. In my opinion, I believe that they are not as athletic.

Murray State -3: Much better team than Colorado State.

Georgetown -3.5: The play the same format as Belmont, but they are bigger and faster.

[OCK]

Baylor as a 7.5 point Fav over South Dakota State? My numbers show this is a good line. But I have to think Baylor will cover 7.5. Maybe I was too impressed by their win over Kansas State.

Is there any value in picking all four of the #1 seeds to cover in the first (now called the second) round? A lot of teams run up the score when they can and it will be an easy cover. But other teams don't run it up and just coast through their first game saving energy. It seems that a lot of the #1 seeds in each region cover in their first game. Is it worth taking the Fav in all 4 games?

[Taxman]

OCK, let me do some research and I will post an answer here Wednesday night regarding the covering status of #1 seeds when they play #16 seeds.

Also, I am starting to fall into that trap. I think that Vanderbilt is overvalued based upon their recent SEC tournament championship.

Vandy giving 6.5 to Harvard might be a tad too much. Plus, what is helping are the talking heads raving about Vandy. Where a couple have them going to the Elite 8!!!

[OCK]

Thanks, Taxman. Just off the top of my head, I am thinking the #1 seed in each region covers about 75% of the time, but I have not researched it, and may very well be incorrect with the number. If it was really that high, I am sure we would have seen the stat before now.

Baylor is getting a lot of talk here in Big 12 Country. Some people are projecting them to the Final Four. If they really are that good, it seems they should blow away South Dakota State. But with that kind of thinking the only thing that usually gets blown away is my money.

[OCK]

I conducted a little research on my own (what a novel idea) and found the following:

#1 vs. #16: The #1 seeds have covered 12 of 16 games (75%) in the past four years. That confirms what I thought.

The average margin of victory in those games is 30 points per game. Also, the OVER is 10-6 (62.5%) in the past four years.

Taxman, if you come up with different numbers, let me know.

[Carpet]

I just dont trust gonzaga, they lost to Illinois on the road and their road game is suspect.

[Carpet]

Love the Murray State and Georgetown bet for sure...

[Carpet]

I conducted a little research on my own (what a novel idea) and found the following:

#1 vs. #16: The #1 seeds have covered 12 of 16 games (75%) in the past four years. That confirms what I thought.
The average margin of victory in those games is 30 points per game. Also, the OVER is 10-6 (62.5%) in the past four years.

Taxman, if you come up with different numbers, let me know.

What was the average spread? over this time frame

[Taxman]

I conducted a little research on my own (what a novel idea) and found the following:

#1 vs. #16: The #1 seeds have covered 12 of 16 games (75%) in the past four years. That confirms what I thought.

The average margin of victory in those games is 30 points per game. Also, the OVER is 10-6 (62.5%) in the past four years.

Taxman, if you come up with different numbers, let me know.

OCK, double check your O/U results for the past four years.


YEAR W L T O/U O U
98 4 0 2 2
99 1 3 1 3
2000 1 3 1 3
2001 4 0 2 2
2002 2 2 2 2
2003 2 2 1 3
2004 2 2 3 1
2005 0 3 1 2 2
2006 1 3 0 4
2007 3 1 4 0
2008 3 1 2 2
2009 2 2 1 3
2010 3 1 2 2
2011 3 1 0 4
31 24 1 23 33

14-6ATS L20 (70% L5Y)

[Taxman]

What was the average spread? over this time frame

Average point spread is a tad under 26 (25.9)

Here are the results, I just wish I could import a table so that everyone can read it smoothly.
DATE 1 SEED 16 SEED 1 SEED SCORE 16 SEED SCORE MARGIN OF VICTORY SPREAD ATS COVER SPREAD
3/12/1998 ARIZONA Nicholls State(N) 99 60 39 -26.5 W 12.5 U 164
3/12/1998 NORTH CAROLINA Navy(N) 88 52 36 -27 W 9.0 U 142
3/13/1998 DUKE Radford(N) 99 63 36 -32 W 4.0 O 151
3/13/1998 KANSAS Prairie View A&M(N) 110 52 58 -37 W 21.0 O 146
3/11/1999 AUBURN Winthrop 80 41 39 -29 W 10.0 U 142
3/11/1999 UCONN Texas-San Antonio 91 66 25 -27.5 L (2.5) O 146
3/12/1999 DUKE Florida A&M 99 58 41 -47 L (6.0) U 161
3/12/1999 MICHIGAN STATE Mount St. Mary's 76 53 23 -26 L (3.0) U 134
3/16/2000 ARIZONA Jackson State 71 47 24 -27.5 L (3.5) U 145
3/16/2000 MICHIGAN STATE Valparaiso 65 38 27 -25.5 W 1.5 U 127
3/17/2000 STANFORD South Carolina State 84 65 19 -31.5 L (12.5) O 139
3/17/2000 DUKE Lamar 82 55 27 -33 L (6.0) U 144
3/15/2001 STANFORD NC-Greensboro(N) 89 60 29 -28.5 W 0.5 O 143.5
3/15/2001 DUKE Monmouth-NJ(N) 95 52 43 -34.5 W 8.5 U 148.5
3/16/2001 MICHIGAN STATE Alabama St.(N) 69 35 34 -29 W 5.0 U 129.5
3/16/2001 ILLINOIS Northwestern St.(N) 96 54 42 -27 W 15.0 O 141
3/14/2002 DUKE Winthrop(N) 84 37 47 -33.5 W 13.5 U 151
3/14/2002 KANSAS Holy Cross(N) 70 59 11 -27.5 L (16.5) U 145.5
3/15/2002 CINCINNATI Boston U(N) 90 52 38 -24.5 W 13.5 O 127.5
3/15/2002 MARYLAND Siena(N) 85 70 15 -27 L (12.0) O 151.5
3/20/2003 ARIZONA Vermont(N) 80 51 29 -23.5 W 5.5 U 141
3/20/2003 OKLAHOMA South Carolina State(N) 71 54 17 -27 L (10.0) U 133
3/21/2003 TEXAS N.C. Asheville(N) 82 61 21 -29 L (8.0) U 154.5
3/21/2003 KENTUCKY Indiana - Purdue(N) 95 64 31 -25.5 W 5.5 O 138.5
3/18/2004 STANFORD Texas-San Antonio(N) 71 45 26 -24 W 2.0 U 135.5
3/18/2004 DUKE Alabama St.(N) 96 61 35 -34 W 1.0 O 133
3/18/2004 ST. JOSEPH'S Liberty(N) 82 63 19 -25 L (6.0) O 137
3/19/2004 KENTUCKY Florida A&M(N) 96 76 20 -28 L (8.0) O 143.5
3/17/2005 ILLINOIS Fairleigh Dickinson(N) 67 55 12 -26.5 L (14.5) U 143.5
3/17/2005 WASHINGTON Montana(N) 88 77 11 -20.5 L (9.5) O 156.5
3/18/2005 NORTH CAROLINA Oakland(N) 96 68 28 -28 P 0.0 O 154
3/18/2005 DUKE Delaware State(N) 57 46 11 -26 L (15.0) U 130.5
3/16/2006 DUKE Southern(N) 70 54 16 -25.5 L (9.5) U 143.5
3/17/2006 UCONN Albany(N) 72 59 13 -20 L (7.0) U 143
3/17/2006 VILLANOVA Monmouth-NJ(N) 58 45 13 -20 L (7.0) U 130.5
3/17/2006 MEMPHIS Oral Roberts(N) 94 78 16 -10.5 W 5.5 O 145
3/15/2007 NORTH CAROLINA Eastern Kentucky(N) 86 65 21 -28 L (7.0) O 141
3/15/2007 OHIO STATE Central Conn. St.(N) 78 57 21 -20 W 1.0 O 127.5
3/16/2007 KANSAS Niagara(N) 107 67 40 -19 W 21.0 O 150.5
3/16/2007 FLORIDA Jackson State(N) 112 69 43 -27.5 W 15.5 O 144
3/20/2008 KANSAS Portland St.(N) 85 61 24 -21 W 3.0 U 147
3/20/2008 UCLA Mississippi Valley State(N) 70 29 41 -31.5 W 9.5 U 125.5
3/21/2008 NORTH CAROLINA Mount St. Mary's(N) 113 74 39 -25 W 14.0 O 152
3/21/2008 MEMPHIS Texas-Arlington(N) 87 63 24 -25.5 L (1.5) O 143.5
3/19/2009 NORTH CAROLINA Radford(N) 101 58 43 -25 W 18.0 U 162.5
3/19/2009 UCONN Chattanooga(N) 103 47 56 -20 W 36.0 O 146
3/20/2009 PITT East Tennessee St.(N) 72 62 10 -21 L (11.0) U 149.5
3/20/2009 LOUISVILLE Morehead St.(N) 74 54 20 -21.5 L (1.5) U 131
3/18/2010 KANSAS Lehigh(N) 90 74 16 -25 L (9.0) O 146.5
3/18/2010 KENTUCKY East Tennessee St.(N) 100 71 29 -18.5 W 10.5 O 136
3/19/2010 DUKE Arkansas-Pine Bluff(N) 73 44 29 -24 W 5.0 U 124.5
3/19/2010 SYRACUSE Vermont(N) 79 56 23 -15.5 W 7.5 U 144.5
3/17/2011 PITT N.C. Asheville(N) 74 51 23 -17.5 W 5.5 U 133
3/18/2011 DUKE Hampton(N) 87 45 42 -25 W 17.0 U 135
3/18/2011 KANSAS Boston U(N) 72 53 19 -23.5 L (4.5) U 137.5
3/18/2011 OHIO STATE Texas-San Antonio(N) 75 46 29 -24.5 W 4.5 U 140

[Taxman]

I just dont trust gonzaga, they lost to Illinois on the road and their road game is suspect.

Do you really think that WV is that good?

[Carpet]

I do

[woodee12]

I think the Big East is way overrated this year and WV will get knocked out by ZAGA. Other teams should be in the ddance besides them in my opinion.

Active dogs I like are New Mexico State +6.5 over Indy

St.Bonny +6.5 over FLorida State--everyone is remembering FSU's acc tourney run and are high on them.

I am a public fader especially in the tourney so remember that with my picks.

Kind of leaning Colorado State over Murray too.

One of the big public dogs is Montana + over Wiscy. Like Montana but dislike public dogs.

[Carpet]

Illinois 82-75 vs Gonzaga (Not a great road team and they seem to be on the road alot)

Illinois 48-43 vs the Bonnies (they do not react well to defense)

Illinois 42-41 vs Michigan State (A clamp down defense could beat the party's again)

Illinois 79-74 vs Ohio State (I do not see this team losing again until deep in the tourney)