Interesting Early Lines for NCAA Tournament 2nd Round

[Carpet]

WV is gonna light up this weak Zags defense

[Taxman]

Please stop with the biased opinions based upon how Illinois ended the season. There are people that consider opinions when making wagers.

Carpet, look at the thread I pull up from December, you were completely giddy about Illinois taking down Gonzaga, then you were correct about St. Bonny making the Dance.

I believe Gonzaga is a much better team compared to WV.

Stepping off my soapbox, sorry!

[woodee12]

Weber had a handle on the team when Illinois played those team. If they played again, everyone of these tourney teams would destroy Illinois. Not even a close argument.

No idea on the wv- zags game now I look at it but believe the big east teams are way overrated for betting purposes.

I will post the rest of my plays on Wednesday. But I added Harvard and long beach.

[Carpet]

Please stop with the biased opinions based upon how Illinois ended the season. There are people that consider opinions when making wagers.

Not really sure what you mean by that, I am simply saying that Illinois beat the Zags this year, and I think WV is better than Illinois especially from long range.

[Carpet]

In looking at the season stats both WV and Illinois are about the same in Long range shooting %, WV will rely on its guard attack to stay in this game, can they stop scarce inside I doubt it.

This will be a very good game to watch

[Taxman]

Thursday/Friday past results based on seeding, SU only

Seed Wins Losses Win %
1 108 0 100.0%
2 104 4 96.3%
3 92 16 85.2%
4 86 22 79.6%
5 72 36 66.7%
6 72 36 66.7%
7 65 43 60.2%
8 51 57 47.2%
9 57 51 52.8%
10 43 65 39.8%
11 36 72 33.3%
12 36 72 33.3%
13 22 86 20.4%
14 16 92 14.8%
15 4 104 3.7%
16 0 108 0%

[Carpet]

ty tax man, do you have this also based on covering the spread?

[Carpet]

Tax Man, I want to wish you the best on your parlay. I hope you win I truly do. The way I see it Gonazaga is the hinge to make that happen.

While we may not agree that the Zags win this game we can still be great friends.

Let's see how it plays....GL

[Taxman]

ty tax man, do you have this also based on covering the spread?

Carpet, I really do not have the database the way I want it, I am already looking ahead to see how seeds do in round 3 (weekend games). So this is kind of fragmented. Maybe this afternoon I can get it summarized.

Here are the last five years:
SEED AVERAGE SPREAD ATS RECORD # OF "UPSETS"
1 -22.98 14-6 0
2 -16.93 11-8-1 0
3 -11.23 13-7 1
4 -8.30 11-9 5
5 -4.45 9-11 7
6 -3.80 8-10-2 9
7 -1.60 10-10 8
8 -0.43 11-9 9

Over the last 5 years the #1 & 3 seeds were the way to go, 14-6 and 13-7


From 2005-2009
Traditionally there is always a 12 seed that takes down a 5 seed and a couple of 11’s that take down a 6 and even every once in a while there are some shockers with 14’s taking down 3’s.


1 vs. 16

We all know the story here no #16 team has ever upset a #1 seed. However, picking these games against the spread is the same as a coin flip. Over the last 5 years the #1 seed is 9-9-1 ATS.

2 vs. 15

Again there has not been a #15 seed to upset a #2 in the last 5 years here, and again it’s like flipping a coin as the #2 seed is just 10-10 ATS.

3 vs. 14

The 14 seed has won twice in the last 5 years. Bucknell upset Kansas 64-63 in 2005 and Northwestern St. upset Iowa the very next year. The #3 seed is actually 11-9 ATS, but still not winning ATS in convincing fashion.

4 vs. 13

Six #13 seeds have won in the last five years including Akron over Gonzaga, and Cleveland State over Wake Forest last year. #4 seed is 9-11 ATS in the last five years against the #13 seed.

5 vs. 12

As mentioned the #12 seed beats the #5 a lot at least once per year and for the last 5 years the #12 seed has actually won outright 11 of 20 times. The smart thing is if you see a short line or a possible small favorite for the 12 seed, because that usually means they are the better team, but the spread is slightly off because the perception is that as a #12 team they are the worse of the two teams. That’s not always true, and the #12 seed is 6-2 ATS in the last two years and 12-8 ATS over the last 5.

6 vs. 11

The last few seed match ups we have seen the underdog cover more and more, but this time the #11 seed has only won 7 times in the last 5 years, and they covered 50% of the time making Vegas extremely sharp when it comes to setting the number for these teams.

7 vs. 10

The 10 seed had a lot of success last year winning 3 of the 4 games. USC beat Boston College, Michigan took down Clemson, and Maryland beat California. However, the #10 seed had only won 5 times in the previous four years and are 8-12 ATS overall. If you are picking an underdog here take them on the money line because whoever has won the game in the last 5 years has also covered ATS.

8 vs. 9

Probably the most challenging match up to pick would be this one, but the #9 seed has won 12 of 20 over the last 5 years. Last year Siena and Texas A&M got it done and over the last 5 years the #9 seed is 12-7-1 ATS.


Number 1 Seed vs. Number 16 Seed

A number 16 seed has never beaten a number 1 seed. That means that numbers 1 seeds are 88-0 straight up for the period 1985-2006. Number 1 seeds have a much better than average chance of making it to the Final Four. Over the same 22-year period, 1985-2006, 13 out of 22 tournament winners have been number one seeds. These numbers should erase any doubt that a number 1 seed, any number 1, has an excellent chance of winning the title.

2000-2006 Results:
SU: 28-0
ATS: 12-15-1
Average Score: 81-56 (2255-1581/28)

Number 2 Seed vs. Number 15 Seed

Number 15 seeds have had a rough go of it in the NCAA Tournament with a 4-84 record against the number 2 seeds. We are still waiting for a number 15 seed to make the Final Four. Number 2 seeds have a very good chance of making the Final Four. During the period 1985-2006 three number 2 seeds have won the national championship.

2000-2006 Results:
SU: 26-2
ATS: 9-19-0
Average Score: 74-60 (2070-1670/28)

Number 3 Seed vs. Number 14 Seed

Number 3 seeds don't win a lot of games against number 14 seeds, but it does happen. In fact, there used to be a yearly upset of a number 3 seed by a 14 seeds but the last several years have been devoid of any of these upsets. There has never been a number 14 seed in the Final Four. Number 3 seeds have a good chance of making it to the Final Four. Number 3 seeds even have a chance to win the championship as three teams have done it since 1985.

2000-2006 Results:
SU: 26-2
ATS: 13-14-1
Average Score: 73-62 (2031-1723/28)

Number 4 Seed vs. Number 13 Seed

Number 13 seeds have not fared well against number 4 seeds over the years, going 18-70 since 1985. A number 13 seed has never made the Final Four. Number 4 seeds have a fair chance of making it to the Final Four. Only one number 4 seed has ever won the national championship.

2000-2006 Results:
SU: 22-6
ATS: 13-15-0
Average Score: 76-68 (2131-1900/28)

Number 5 Seed vs. Number 12 Seed

Number 5 seeds have dominated number 12 seeds by a margin of 61-27. So far, no number 12 seeds have made the Final Four. Number 5 seeds have a so-so chance of making it to the Final Four. Over the period 1985-2006, no number 5 seeds have won the tournament, although two number 5 seeds have made the championship game. Oddly enough, number 12 seeds have a better record against number against number 5 seeds, than do number 11 seeds against number 6 seeds.

2000-2006 Results:
SU: 17-11
ATS: 12-15-1
Average Score: 73-69 (2041-1939/28)

Number 6 Seed vs. Number 11 Seed

Number 6 seeds have dominated number 11 seeds by a margin of 61-27. Only two number 11 seed has made it to the Final Four. Number 6 seeds have a marginal chance of making it to the Final Four. Over the period 1985-2006, only one winner has been a number 6 seed.

2000-2006 Results:
SU: 20-8
ATS: 16-12-0
Average Score: 69-66 (1935-1845/28)

Number 7 Seed vs. Number 10 Seed

Number 7 seeds hold a 53-35 advantage over number 10 seeds over the period 1985-2006. Neither a number 7 seed nor a number 10 seed has ever made the Final Four.

2000-2006 Results:
SU: 17-11
ATS: 17-11-0
Average Score: 70-66 (1948-1844/28)

Number 8 Seed vs. Number 9 Seed

Believe it or not ? actually it's not that hard to believe - number 9 seeds have the advantage, 47-41, against the number 8 seeds. Despite their advantage over the number 8 seeds, a number 9 seed is yet to make it to a Final Four. Number 8 seeds have a slim chance of making it to a Final Four. The only number 8 seed to every win the NCAA Tournament was the 1985 Villanova Wildcats.

2000-2006 Results:
SU: 15-13
ATS: 14-13-1
Average Score: 72-70 (2011-1972/28)

Bottom line, nothing really stands out, so now I remember why I stopped tracking the databases. Then again, this is only for Day 1 and Day 2 (Thursday/Friday) of the tournaments.

[Taxman]

Tax Man, I want to wish you the best on your parlay. I hope you win I truly do. The way I see it Gonazaga is the hinge to make that happen.

While we may not agree that the Zags win this game we can still be great friends.

Let's see how it plays....GL

Carpet, no worries, we are always going to be friends.

I just want to make sure that your analysis of the WV/Gonzaga game does not include your feelings based upon the Illinois game/season. That's all I was trying to get across. I'm usually bad with words, or so it's been said around the house! LOL

[Taxman]

WV is gonna light up this weak Zags defense

Well.......

22 first half points on 6 of 26 shooting is not going to get it done! Take away Kevin Jones and the rest of the team is 3-19 shooting. They were contested shots! Down 18, GL2U

[Carpet]

nothing like rubbiing my nose in it

[Taxman]

I have parlayed Gonzaga, Murray State and Georgetown.

The Gonzaga/WV line is puzzling. Gonzaga is a very good team. I just cannot understand the line unless it is based upon both teams playing in Pittsburgh, considered game a home game for West Virgina? Is it because Gonzaga is going cross country? I'm just not a big fan of West Virginia. In my opinion, I believe that they are not as athletic.

Murray State -3: Much better team than Colorado State.

Georgetown -3.5: The play the same format as Belmont, but they are bigger and faster.

Winner winner winner!!!