NFL Week 1 early lines

[dragon1952]

Looking at the early lines for week 1 of the regular season there appears to be several juicy dogs.
Ind +10 @ Chi - Huge line for Chicago to cover early on against a team who's offense may be underrated. Chicago will have 2 new starting wideouts, a suspect OL which may not have improved over last year and possibly a less than 100% Brian Urlacher.
Buf +3.5 @ NYJ - The Jets have a shaky QB situation, a shaky RB situation, a shaky WR situation. Heck, I think Buffalo may be the better team this year, definitely on offense and very possibly on defense.
Jax +4.5 @ Min - Are you serious? Min a 4.5 pt favorite? Who do they have besides Percy Harvin? Adrian Peterson will probably not be ready to go 100%. Jerome Simpson will be serving a 3 game suspension, rookie Greg Childs is out for the year. They only won 3 games last year and gave up less than 22 pts just twice, once the last game of the season to the McCown-led Bears.
SF +6.5 @ GB - SF lost 4 games last year, one by 2 pts, two by 3 pts in OT and the other they were tied going into the 4th Q.
Was +9.5 @ NO - The Saints defense has been depleted due to suspension, HC and play caller Sean Payton has been suspended for the year. The Redskins have a decent defense and likely an underrated offense. A huge line considering.

[Dinger]

My system agrees with all your picks except one. That's a positive sign.

[dragon1952]

Cool. These aren't necessarily picks at this time but just observations. I'm sure the lines will be changing as the preseason plays out but I might take a gamble at a couple of them hoping the situations don't change adversely.

[resteasy]

my takes....

disagree with your reasoning on the saints.
Saints players depleted from last year I don't agree with. They lost a couple big players but with new signups and an entire offseason to prepare there + Spags now the D coordinator will actually improve that defense. Especially should help the D-line players.
Sean Payton gone hurts a bit but it's Brees that counter acts that plus a coaching staff including O-coordinator that knows the book and has been there for years.

Redskins have ok WR's but who is there running back? They still don't know.

I don't love the line either it's so big but it may drop with RG3 hype and a false sense of loss from the bounty scandal.

Add to all of that playing in that dome.... saints should certainly take this. Again though, I'm not yet prepared to give the 10 points until I see more in the preseason.
A tease though -2.5 over whatever the total would be solid.

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Agree SF could be a play but I'd buy the 1/2
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Jax scares me. MJD issue still not resolved and the coach saying he'll hold him out a little when he does come back. What that means I have no idea but don't love it. QB issues. This will be 2 bad teams and you may be right seeing the value with the points but I do think minny wins that game.
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Buffallo certainly. Hit that especially at 3.5. Their D will be much much improved I think. Offense I think will be similiar to early last season.
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The 2 new WR on chicago doesn't affect my thoughts on them at all. Remember, Marshall played with cutler in denver so you can't really count him as new and rather see strength in that. No Martz offense but the o-line is troublesome.
Indy came out looking good but against the rams in indy. Colts won't be as good as they'll look in preseason (browns the same).
Still, 10 points is massive. The bears should come through with the W but again I'm currently inclined to agree with you on the points until I see more of this new bears offense AND when I see luck play pitt's first team this weekend.

[resteasy]

A week or 2 ago I placed a few week 1 wagers.

-Seahawks +1 over arizonia (Love love love this. Seahawks D will surprise people this year and Arizonia has no qb to speak of)
-Panthers -3 over bucs - Don't believe there will be enough improvement for the bucs to stop this carolina team that has a good qb and is so frigging deep at RB.
-KC pk over falcons - I believe this one will be a harder fought game and it being in KC chiefs take this.
-Texans -7 over dolphins - in houston they win by a td or more. Dolphins had a good D last year stopping the run but will that carry over? They changed the defense scheme for some reason. If it aint fixed don't broke it.

Also, these 2 futures.
KC over 8 wins
KC wins AFC West

[dragon1952]

I love the Seahawks this year especially at home.....they are the "home" team around here on the central Oregon coast. Even though we lived in S. Cal for 30+ years and have been Charger fans I am keeping an eye on them and may switch allegiances some day. We've been up here for 6 1/2 yrs and we love Pete Carroll from his USC days (up till now our "NFC team" has been the Saints). But they currently have similar issues as Arizona at QB, and if Lynch is suspended well could be similar there too. Both teams should have very good defense. We'll have to see what transpires in the next few weeks but I think that could end up being one of the more competitive games of week 1.
Panthers destroyed the Bucs both games last year. If they can't stop the run again it's no contest (CAR rushed for close to 450 yds combined).
Love KC's chances this year, especially at home, with a bruiser like Hillis and their defense back in tact.
And I definitely agree on the Houston vs Miami game. Tough opener for Miami.

[dragon1952]

"Redskins have ok WR's but who is there running back? They still don't know."

I think they have 3 pretty good choices and it's liable to be a bit of all 3. Hightower, Royster and Helu may not be a bad arsenal. The Saints gave up nearly 5 yds per rush last year. With the new DC, new defensive scheme and several new players it might take a while to see what they've really got.

[resteasy]

Until I see more those points in the saints game are too difficult to grasp. Yes, washington has RB's but none named starter. Last year it seemed each one was a starter on different weeks and it doesn't inspire much confidence. Hightower is still trying to come off injury so I don't trust him yet.

Biggest thing is I do see the saints having the same insane offence as last year along with an improved D. Redskins I see having a similiar D to last year with a slightly improved offense. The question comes to can the redskins keep it within 10 @ the saints?

Probably a no play for me.