San Francisco 49ers

[dragon1952]

Are these guys getting a little too much credit for their early wins? They beat GB and Det by 8 pts each, which seemed like a huge deal at the time. But then both GB, except for tearing up a questionable Chicago team, and Det have not looked very good at all since so maybe it wasn't such a huge deal after all. And then SF goes on the road as 7 pt favorites over a team that most assume inferior to GB and Chi and they lose SU by double digits. Now they have to stay back there for another week and play the Jets as 4 pt favorites.
SF was 7-2 on the road last year but they didn't win one of those games by more than 8 pts. Their average margin of victory in those 7 wins was just over 5 pts. So now they are -7 and -4 favorites? They are not a team that is built to win by large margins against the average team. They win by playing defense and by limiting TO's. If they fall behind, as they did in Minny, then it's usually all over. They've had an awful lot of travel and hotels over the past 3 weeks. I'm just saying that the Jets might be pretty decent value getting 4 pts here. Remember, 4 pts just gives you a push. Since 5 pts isn't a very common number the 49ers would have to win by at least 6 for it to be a win.

[Taxman]

I agree.

You are getting overvalue all over the place. SF is a front runner to represent the NFC.

Revis is hurt...they think it will affect the JETS. However, SF does not have a downfield threat or any threat at WR. So, IMO, Revis injury is a non-factor.

Add to the fact that the JETS O looked poor on the road (PIT & MIA), you're getting good value here. Maybe even SU upset.

Since 2003, SF 3-15 SU @ AFC. They beat Cincinnati 13-8 LY and lost to Baltimore 16-6.

Since 2008, NYJ 5-3 SU home vs. NFC. They lost to ATL by in '09, GB 9-0 in '10 and NYG buried them 29-14 in Week 15 when things were unraveling.

[Carpet]

I was talking with Corn Picker about San Fran. I call him corn picker because he lives in the middle of corn fields with nothing around for miles. He watches and listens to anything to do with the NFL 24 hours a day it seems.

Any way here is what Corn Picker says:

"SF is putting on a lot of air miles from the west coast to get to these games and they looked flat footed vs Minny all game long. This week they get back on a plane heading east to play a fired up hard hitting jets team, this will effect this team"

[Dinger]

My system has the NYJ -2.5 in this game. Back to back road games + traveling long distance = Jet Lag.

The other system I use on another website has SF winning by 5, while another has SF by 1.

[dragon1952]

I was talking with Corn Picker about San Fran. I call him corn picker because he lives in the middle of corn fields with nothing around for miles. He watches and listens to anything to do with the NFL 24 hours a day it seems.

Any way here is what Corn Picker says:

"SF is putting on a lot of air miles from the west coast to get to these games and they looked flat footed vs Minny all game long. This week they get back on a plane heading east to play a fired up hard hitting jets team, this will effect this team"

Actually they stayed back in Ohio I think all week so they wouldn't have to travel again, but still....being away from home and sleeping in hotels for 10 days or so has to be tough.

[widestrides]

SF did not go home. They are staying in Ohio.

Jets were lucky to win in Miami on Miami missed FG in OT. Jets looked horrible throughout most of the game.

Sanchez is still very inaccurate. He will be under pressure all day. I like SF - even at -4. Sure that 4 is tough. Maybe buy it down to -3, but that will cost a bunch of juice. Maybe a good tease, but then you are crossing zero and getting 1 or 2 doesn't help much. Two team ML parlay?

[Carpet]

Ok I get it SF is staying in Ohio just barely into the eastern time zone to prepare how lame is that? They still are going to board another jet to NY which is always a bitch to get to the stadium.

All that travel will takes it toll, I see this coming down to a field goal. This game will be a war.

[Krichinsky]

Maybe Harbaugh wanted them to sleep in the
cradle of football. Sorry, couldn't resist.

[hart attack]

Actually they stayed back in Ohio I think all week so they wouldn't have to travel again, but still....being away from home and sleeping in hotels for 10 days or so has to be tough.

agreed, those 4 star hotels and anything your heart desires room service can be murder.

[dragon1952]

agreed, those 4 star hotels and anything your heart desires room service can be murder.

ha ha....screw you smart ass

[hart attack]

sorry.....couldn't resist :>)

[resteasy]

Running back Joe McKnight has been practicing with the defense in Revis' spot....
1 game and everyone questions the 9'ers?

Jets just lost their best weapon for the year, was lucky to beat miami, have zero talent at RB against an excellent run D, have a below average QB (2) and someone mentioned SF has no deep threats (vernon davis, moss), only weapon jets have is Holmes (kerley maybe up and coming for them) and keller a big ? with a hamstring injury. Also, Frank Gore very solid this year.

They'll win and cover. Last week was the let down game against a better team than the jets (AP, ponder looking real good, Harvin playing great, intact D etc.)

[dragon1952]

Based on an article I found after I made this post.....now this is going into the 2011 season but doesn't include it.......in the past 10 years home dogs where the line has 'firmed' (moved in an advantageous direction) above 40% of the opening line have covered at a rate of 58.1%. The line in this game opened at SF -3, so a movement to -4.5 (which is what I'm seeing now) represents a 50% movement.

Quote, "This is where we see our most stark trend. Overall, home underdogs firming at the line are 55.1% the last 10 seasons. That's on any line movement at all.

Below line shifts of 40%, the record is 113-96-6, just under 54%.

But above 40%, the record is a very attractive 45-32-3. That's 58.1% the last 10 seasons.

So it seems that as we go into the 2011 NFL season, that we should keep an eye on home underdogs who have firmed in price from the opening line."

link http://www.bettingexpert.com/blog/nf...under-analysis

edit: to add to that, I'm not positive but I don't think road favorites have fared very well this season to date either.

[guy]

Sf at NYJ

Sf should win this easy. Stronger Def and Stronger Off- should pass the ball at-will and that will open the running game. Sf by at least 10.

[guy]

Sf at NYJ

Sf should win this easy, stronger Def and stronger Off- should pass the ball at-will and that will open the running game. Sf by at least 10.