Tweet
Current line:
New Orleans -3 (even)
Philadelphia +3 (-120)
O/U 52.5
The Eagles are 3-4 overall, 1-2 on the road, 2-5 ATS. They've pretty much got blown out in 2 of their losses (@Arizona and vs Atlanta) but in 5 of their 7 games they have scored within 3 pts of their opponent with 2 one pt wins, 1 two pt win, 1 two pt loss and a 3 pt loss in OT. The Eagles have struggled on offense, in large part due to turnovers, and have only scored more than 20 pts twice. They have committed 17 TO's and most can be attributed to Michael Vick who has thrown 8 INT's and has lost 5 fumbles. Overall they are -9 in TO ratio. Many of these TO's have been in the red zone which would help explain the lack of points on offense. One would assume that if they can eliminate or limit TO's they can win some of those close games as they are -7 in TO ratio in their 4 losses and just -2 in their 3 wins. Over their last 4 games they have turned the ball over just 5 times (compared to 12 in their first 3 games), and in 2 of the last 4 they didn't have any TO's.
The Saints are 2-5 overall, 1-2 at home and a surprising 3-4 ATS considering their record but they did cover the spread in their 2 wins (although barely vs San Diego) and they covered in a 1 pt loss @ Green Bay. You can definitely blame Brees to a point as he hasn't been as sharp as years past but the main issue is on defense where the Saints are ranked dead last (32nd) in total defense giving up nearly 57 ypg more than the 31st ranked defense, and are giving up nearly 31 ppg. They are giving up over 300 ypg passing and 170 ypg on the ground. And what might be even worse, out of 245 pass attempts against them they have only intercepted 3 passes total.
Of course the Saints do have one of the best offenses around but they say defense wins games....and they obviously don't have one which is highlighted by the fact that 3 of their losses have been to teams that have a combined record of 6-19. They even lost to the 1-7 Kansas City Chiefs. So if you don't think Philadelphia has a great shot at a SU win I don't know what to tell you.
Philadelphia has huge potential on offense with Vick and his scrambling ability, a great RB in LeSean McCoy who is also one of the best pass-catching RB's around, arguably the best WR at stretching the field in DeSean Jackson, with the speedy and elusive WR Jeremy Maclin on the other side as well as a great TE in Brent Celek. If they can limit the TO's.....and the Saints have not shown that they can create many.....then it's liable to be a tough battle for New Orleans.
The Saints lose a valuable weapon with Darren Sproles MIA and TE Jimmy Graham hasn't been 100%. Denver kept the Saints offense off the field last week holding a 10:30 minute advantage in TOP and held the Saints to just 14 FD's and 252 total yds by running the ball 41 times for 225 yds, a game plan Tampa Bay should have followed the week before after jumping out to a 21-7 lead. Denver had 29 FD's and nearly 550 yds of offense.
I played a 7 pt teaser last night taking Phi +10 and OV 45 that I feel very good about. New Orleans should get their points...... the Eagles have the 2nd fewest sack total in the NFL with just 9 so Brees shouldn't be constantly under pressure......and especially if Vick turns the ball over. If he does and New Orleans gets out ahead then it could be trouble for Philly, but if they take care of the ball and establish the run they should be in real good shape.
Vick has been taking a lot of crap the past week with even rumors of benching him for the rookie Foles. I'm gambling that he comes out and has his best game of the year and that Brees will have to air it out to keep up so I like Phi +3 in a high scoring game.
Good luck and please feel free to comment.
New Orleans -3 (even)
Philadelphia +3 (-120)
O/U 52.5
The Eagles are 3-4 overall, 1-2 on the road, 2-5 ATS. They've pretty much got blown out in 2 of their losses (@Arizona and vs Atlanta) but in 5 of their 7 games they have scored within 3 pts of their opponent with 2 one pt wins, 1 two pt win, 1 two pt loss and a 3 pt loss in OT. The Eagles have struggled on offense, in large part due to turnovers, and have only scored more than 20 pts twice. They have committed 17 TO's and most can be attributed to Michael Vick who has thrown 8 INT's and has lost 5 fumbles. Overall they are -9 in TO ratio. Many of these TO's have been in the red zone which would help explain the lack of points on offense. One would assume that if they can eliminate or limit TO's they can win some of those close games as they are -7 in TO ratio in their 4 losses and just -2 in their 3 wins. Over their last 4 games they have turned the ball over just 5 times (compared to 12 in their first 3 games), and in 2 of the last 4 they didn't have any TO's.
The Saints are 2-5 overall, 1-2 at home and a surprising 3-4 ATS considering their record but they did cover the spread in their 2 wins (although barely vs San Diego) and they covered in a 1 pt loss @ Green Bay. You can definitely blame Brees to a point as he hasn't been as sharp as years past but the main issue is on defense where the Saints are ranked dead last (32nd) in total defense giving up nearly 57 ypg more than the 31st ranked defense, and are giving up nearly 31 ppg. They are giving up over 300 ypg passing and 170 ypg on the ground. And what might be even worse, out of 245 pass attempts against them they have only intercepted 3 passes total.
Of course the Saints do have one of the best offenses around but they say defense wins games....and they obviously don't have one which is highlighted by the fact that 3 of their losses have been to teams that have a combined record of 6-19. They even lost to the 1-7 Kansas City Chiefs. So if you don't think Philadelphia has a great shot at a SU win I don't know what to tell you.
Philadelphia has huge potential on offense with Vick and his scrambling ability, a great RB in LeSean McCoy who is also one of the best pass-catching RB's around, arguably the best WR at stretching the field in DeSean Jackson, with the speedy and elusive WR Jeremy Maclin on the other side as well as a great TE in Brent Celek. If they can limit the TO's.....and the Saints have not shown that they can create many.....then it's liable to be a tough battle for New Orleans.
The Saints lose a valuable weapon with Darren Sproles MIA and TE Jimmy Graham hasn't been 100%. Denver kept the Saints offense off the field last week holding a 10:30 minute advantage in TOP and held the Saints to just 14 FD's and 252 total yds by running the ball 41 times for 225 yds, a game plan Tampa Bay should have followed the week before after jumping out to a 21-7 lead. Denver had 29 FD's and nearly 550 yds of offense.
I played a 7 pt teaser last night taking Phi +10 and OV 45 that I feel very good about. New Orleans should get their points...... the Eagles have the 2nd fewest sack total in the NFL with just 9 so Brees shouldn't be constantly under pressure......and especially if Vick turns the ball over. If he does and New Orleans gets out ahead then it could be trouble for Philly, but if they take care of the ball and establish the run they should be in real good shape.
Vick has been taking a lot of crap the past week with even rumors of benching him for the rookie Foles. I'm gambling that he comes out and has his best game of the year and that Brees will have to air it out to keep up so I like Phi +3 in a high scoring game.
Good luck and please feel free to comment.
Comment