Widestrides NFL Picks Week 14

[widestrides]

6-10.5 last week
112-93 for the season on posted plays. (54.7%)
32.5-32.5 Mock Hilton (50%)
71-58-1 Carib Contest (55%)
7-5-1 BW GOW Contest (58.3%)

Colts -5 and over 46 vs Titans. Titans didn't show much at home vs the Texans. Colts can smell a playoff spot now, but their D is suspect and they have two games with the Texans coming up. Locker will be out to play well vs. Luck so that's why I also went for the over in the Dome.

Lions and Packers over 48. Lions will go bombs-away with nothing to lose and Packers can't run the ball so they have to pass. Rodgers needs to remain upright as he will be under pressure with that bad OL of his.

Vikings +3 vs Bears. Can't find +3 any more. Will keep looking, or tease it up.

Jaguars +3 vs Jets. Can't find +3 any more. Will keep looking, or tease it up.

Rams +3. Rams D playing very well so I'm looking for them to turn over the wild, gun-slinging Fitzpatrick. But Rams O is a ? and Bills D is playing better. That's why getting +3 was important.

Bengals -3. Waiting and hoping for the -3, but will take -3.5 if not. Bengals at home, winners of 5 in a row, smelling playoffs but in a tight race, so they are desperate to keep winning. Cowboys OL is bad and Cinci's D should get after Romo. Whitten and Bryant are a tough pair to cover though and Romo can be elusive and they are also alive for a playoff spot.

Patriots -3 and over 51. Waiting and hoping for the -3, but will take -3.5 if not. Pats will get up to knock off the 11-1 Texans, but Texans will also move the ball on the suspect Pats' D and hence the over.

Teasers
Browns -1 and Packers -1. KC played with emotion last week. I'm banking on the letdown this week vs the streaking Browns! But asking the Browns to cover 6.5 and now 7 is a lot. Tease it down! Same with Pack. They will win, but Detroit might play spoiler for awhile before once again imploding.

Bucs -1.5 and Steelers -2. Rivers will be running for his life in Pittsburgh, but the SD D has been playing well and keeping them in games. Rumors are swirling that Norv and the GM are out at the end of the season. No surprise really. Not sure if that affects the team's play in Pittsburgh this week. Bucs D should not be as challenged this week vs. Foles and Eagles as they have been the last two weeks vs. Matt Ryan and Peyton Manning.

Bengals -.5 and Patriots -.5. See above.

Jags +8.5 and Vikings +8.5. See above.

Steelers -2 and Vikings +8.5.

[resteasy]

like the vikings eh? wondering what you see on that.

looks pretty good man. Hope you knock em on their ass.

[widestrides]

Viks in a must-win, desperate situation at home with revenge after Bears beat them a couple weeks back. Bears REALLY banged up with Urlacher and Jennings out. Bush and Forte both hurting, but playing. Earl Bennett also out. Tillman hurting. Hester out and more.

[widestrides]

Added another unit on Pitt and TB 6 point teaser.

[widestrides]

4-7 as Lions and GB slow-played it with both Ds playing two-deep all night.

Never did get the Viks and Jags at +3, but would have split anyway. Just had them in those teasers.

Will probably go Pats -3.5 and over 51 for MNF.

[woodee12]

Damn Bengals....Or Cowboys? Dallas is the most unpredictable team ever. Cinnci had that wrapped up if their recievers could catch the damn ball. 2 easy drops and they would have covered and won.

[widestrides]

I heard about those drops. AJ Green?! Argh!!!!

I've lost all three games to teams that played inspired due to cancer, murder/suicide, DUI/intoxication/homicide!

So that's what it takes to get a team inspired to show up and play?!

I certainly have sympathy for the victims, but do you get the impression that most of the NFL players are not exactly role models?

[widestrides]

Going with Pats -4 and over 51 tonight. Expecting the Pats to do what the Packers did to the Texans a few weeks back. Texans are good but not 11-1 good. Texans will get some points off the suspect Pats D, but Brady will get 10 more.

[oldluds]

Woodee.... Cincinnati has been a thorn in my "betting" side for a couple years now. I have told my son-in-law, a huge Bengals fan, I usually don't touch them anymore, cause I am usually on the wrong side. Yesterday, I went against my better judgement, and poof! I agree with you about Dallas too. As you touched on this subject in your thread concerning the NBA, how can you know when or what will motivate these grossly overpaid athletes to perform. All professional sports salaries need to be capped, and the money saved, lower ticket prices, or contribute it to a fund for some worthy cause(national debt?) AND, if these overpaid babies don't think the pre-set salary caps are high enough, fine, don't play, go out and get a real job! I did a paper for a college course, many years ago , explaining how professional sports need to enact a performance based tier for salaries, with a definate maximum, to prevent these spiraling figures. It is ridiculous.

[dragon1952]

I don't quite understand the ability to turn on motivation at will. Isn't winning motivation enough all the time? We've all seen teams play like shit for a few games (Miami Heat come to mind..or the Lakers) and then just tear people up because the coach ripped them a new one or they had a team meeting or someone is sick/died or whatever. So this 'extra gear' is there all the time but they choose not to use it? It doesn't say much for their "normal" level of motivation and/or effort, or their characters. I know basketball and baseball are kind of a different story because you are playing so often you have to play at a more even keel or else you'd burn out. But football is once a week and there are only 16 games and 1 game can ruin your season. I just don't understand.

[widestrides]

So easy sometimes, although the over 51 needed some help after Kubiak quit real early.

Battled back to 6-6 on the week. Should have gone heavier on Pats. Texans did not have as much to play for and Belichick likes to get in their heads for the playoffs.

I wish my Giants played with that kind of attack attitude. Very few teams do. Most coaches want to play it safe and get out with the win. Brady and Belichick like to rip your heart out early and often.

Tom Brady is 93-65-7 against the spread as an NFL starter. That's 59%! And often you win with very little stress. Who needs complicated trends.