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New England -5.5 / 51
These teams are both pretty good although they've had quite a few less than stellar opponents to pad the total wins.
NE's wins - Ten, Buf x 2, NYJ x 2, Miami, St Louis
Hou's wins - Mia, Jax x 2, Ten x 2, NYJ, Buf
New England struggled a bit against a couple of the tougher defenses they've faced (Arizona, Seattle) while Houston has struggled against a couple of the better offenses they've played (Green Bay, Detroit and inexplicably that one game vs Henne).
New England will give up their share of points and Houston will allow their share to top offenses so I do like a lot of points in this game and the current total of 51 seems in reach. I really like a 7 pt tease to 44.
The question is which side to tease with the total. In a case like this I kind of prefer to go with the dog if it's one that has the ability to pull
off the SU win. But then again getting pts with New England at home isn't a bad deal either. In this case I'm leaning with the dog. I'm not sure I'd feel super confident teasing NE unless I could get them at +3-4 pts which ain't going to happen in this one. So in my mind I like Hou +12.5 / OV44.
EDIT:
I'll share something from a pay service. I paid $7 for this but the guy does sell season packages as well, but towards the end of the year he offers some
individual picks and has some decent reasoning behind his picks. I'm not sure his record has been that great but it's nice to sometimes get a different view
of a game you don't personally have a good feel for.
He's suggesting 3 one-half unit picks. Keep in mind his lines are often different based on when he makes the pick and where he shops.
Tease NE to +2 and OV 45
NE OV the total of 28 (-130)
Hou OV the total of 23 (-120)
NOTE: At my book the team totals are 29 and 24 and he's picking at 28/23 so keep that in mind. BTW, I did my write-up before even reading this so if there are any similarities it is coincidence...after all the same info is out there for all of us to research.
The following are his words.
Tease NE and the over
Hous total OV 23
NE total OV 28
Tonight because my computer leans to the over but it's now at 52, and because my research shows there is some value to be had in increased production tonight, I'm making 3 plays for 0.5 units each.
Note - if you have -5.5 just tease it to +1.5. The more important number to get is the 45 on the total.
In this part of the season, from weeks 11 thru 16, when a 1 loss team is a road dog of 3 or more points, they are 0-13 SU and 1-9-3 ATS, failing to cover the spread by 7 ppg as an avg +5.5 dog (same line as tonight). This trend certainly plays against the Texans tonight.
Teasing MNF home favorites of over a FG but less than double digits has gone 6-0 this year in teasers, and in the 2nd half of the season since 2003, these teams are 38-7-3 in teasers (84%) including 12-1 (92%) since 2010.
Since 2007, the Patriots are 11-0 SU in primetime games on regular rest. They don't have a great ATS number (5-6) because their average line was a 12 ppg favorite and they won a handful of games by 7 or fewer points. But they've always won.
My computer leans to the over in the game in general, and 61% of the time this season these teams have eclipsed the point total.
As a result of the trends here which do favor the Patriots, and the Texans are playing worse then they have all season on red zone defense, allowing 57% the last 3 weeks to raise their YTD average to 44%.
I have more information on the red zone performances in the other writeup, but the bottom line is that both trend toward seeing more scoring tonight.
New England Team Total Over 28 (-130)
Houston Team Total Over 23 (-120)
Books are slower to adjust these numbers and I like them both, but feel it's especially important to get 28 on New England.
For starters, we're working with the top two red zone offenses in the league. The interesting aspect to this game is the matchup on 3rd downs. When New England has the ball, they're the #1 team in the league but Houston is #5 on 3rd down defense. Similarly, when Houston has the ball, they are the #20 team on 3rd down offense but New England is #23 on 3rd down defense.
However, the key is the punts/drive stat: New England is #31 in the league in forcing a punt per drive, forcing teams to punt on just 1 of every 3 drives. But they're the #1 team on offense, punting less than once every 3 drives.
These teams are also both in the top 3 in yards/point. They are very efficient, they score on defense, their defense can set them up w/ short fields, and they rarely turn the ball over in opponent territory when driving for scores. All of these factors boost scoring.
As for Houston, they've scored at least 23 points in every game this year except for 2. Once was at home vs. Buffalo when they scored just 21, and once was in Chicago in the weather.
And as for New England, the only teams they held below 23 points are Tennessee, Arizona, St. Louis, NY Jets, Miami, and one surprise: Denver. Denver put up just 21 points but had multiple turnovers in scoring position and New England was fortunate to recover those turnovers. The Texans are a very balanced offense and I can see them scoring at least 23 tonight.
For New England's team total, they are averaging 36 ppg this year and have scored below 28 points on 3 occasions: In Seattle, in Miami, and home vs. Arizona when they lost Hernandez in-game.
Houston's defense has not allowed many points but many of the opposing offenses they have played have been anemic to put it midly: Miami, Jacksonville (w/ Gabbert), Tennessee, NY Jets, Buffalo, Chicago in heavy wind/rain w/o Cutler. The only surprises have been Denver (Denver scored 25 in week 3, their offense is much better now than it was week 3) and Baltimore, the week after Baltimore lost several defensive starters.
However, teams like GB, Det and even Jacksonville a couple of weeks ago put up 42, 37 and 31 respectively against this Texans defense. And the Patriots have the best offense of any of those teams.
Both teams are playing worse now than all season in the red zone on defense: NE allows 57% (24th) but is allowing 63% the last 3 weeks. Houston allows 44% (5th) but is allowing 57% the last 3 weeks.
And both teams are playing better on offense in the red zone than their YTD averages as well: NE is converting 66% but is 69% the last 3 weeks, and Houston is converting 61% but also at 69% the last 3 weeks. NE makes the most red zone trips/game of any team in the league, and in 2nd place are the Texans.
So between both offenses being more productive now than at any point inside the red zone, and both defenses struggling of late inside the red zone, I do see points in this game.
END OF HIS WRITE_UP
Obviously he has good reasons for teasing NE and I may change my mind as the trends look pretty convincing. But I really like Hou getting nearly 2 TDs. Maybe I'll go both ways on the side.
Good Luck!
New England -5.5 / 51
These teams are both pretty good although they've had quite a few less than stellar opponents to pad the total wins.
NE's wins - Ten, Buf x 2, NYJ x 2, Miami, St Louis
Hou's wins - Mia, Jax x 2, Ten x 2, NYJ, Buf
New England struggled a bit against a couple of the tougher defenses they've faced (Arizona, Seattle) while Houston has struggled against a couple of the better offenses they've played (Green Bay, Detroit and inexplicably that one game vs Henne).
New England will give up their share of points and Houston will allow their share to top offenses so I do like a lot of points in this game and the current total of 51 seems in reach. I really like a 7 pt tease to 44.
The question is which side to tease with the total. In a case like this I kind of prefer to go with the dog if it's one that has the ability to pull
off the SU win. But then again getting pts with New England at home isn't a bad deal either. In this case I'm leaning with the dog. I'm not sure I'd feel super confident teasing NE unless I could get them at +3-4 pts which ain't going to happen in this one. So in my mind I like Hou +12.5 / OV44.
EDIT:
I'll share something from a pay service. I paid $7 for this but the guy does sell season packages as well, but towards the end of the year he offers some
individual picks and has some decent reasoning behind his picks. I'm not sure his record has been that great but it's nice to sometimes get a different view
of a game you don't personally have a good feel for.
He's suggesting 3 one-half unit picks. Keep in mind his lines are often different based on when he makes the pick and where he shops.
Tease NE to +2 and OV 45
NE OV the total of 28 (-130)
Hou OV the total of 23 (-120)
NOTE: At my book the team totals are 29 and 24 and he's picking at 28/23 so keep that in mind. BTW, I did my write-up before even reading this so if there are any similarities it is coincidence...after all the same info is out there for all of us to research.
The following are his words.
Tease NE and the over
Hous total OV 23
NE total OV 28
Tonight because my computer leans to the over but it's now at 52, and because my research shows there is some value to be had in increased production tonight, I'm making 3 plays for 0.5 units each.
Note - if you have -5.5 just tease it to +1.5. The more important number to get is the 45 on the total.
In this part of the season, from weeks 11 thru 16, when a 1 loss team is a road dog of 3 or more points, they are 0-13 SU and 1-9-3 ATS, failing to cover the spread by 7 ppg as an avg +5.5 dog (same line as tonight). This trend certainly plays against the Texans tonight.
Teasing MNF home favorites of over a FG but less than double digits has gone 6-0 this year in teasers, and in the 2nd half of the season since 2003, these teams are 38-7-3 in teasers (84%) including 12-1 (92%) since 2010.
Since 2007, the Patriots are 11-0 SU in primetime games on regular rest. They don't have a great ATS number (5-6) because their average line was a 12 ppg favorite and they won a handful of games by 7 or fewer points. But they've always won.
My computer leans to the over in the game in general, and 61% of the time this season these teams have eclipsed the point total.
As a result of the trends here which do favor the Patriots, and the Texans are playing worse then they have all season on red zone defense, allowing 57% the last 3 weeks to raise their YTD average to 44%.
I have more information on the red zone performances in the other writeup, but the bottom line is that both trend toward seeing more scoring tonight.
New England Team Total Over 28 (-130)
Houston Team Total Over 23 (-120)
Books are slower to adjust these numbers and I like them both, but feel it's especially important to get 28 on New England.
For starters, we're working with the top two red zone offenses in the league. The interesting aspect to this game is the matchup on 3rd downs. When New England has the ball, they're the #1 team in the league but Houston is #5 on 3rd down defense. Similarly, when Houston has the ball, they are the #20 team on 3rd down offense but New England is #23 on 3rd down defense.
However, the key is the punts/drive stat: New England is #31 in the league in forcing a punt per drive, forcing teams to punt on just 1 of every 3 drives. But they're the #1 team on offense, punting less than once every 3 drives.
These teams are also both in the top 3 in yards/point. They are very efficient, they score on defense, their defense can set them up w/ short fields, and they rarely turn the ball over in opponent territory when driving for scores. All of these factors boost scoring.
As for Houston, they've scored at least 23 points in every game this year except for 2. Once was at home vs. Buffalo when they scored just 21, and once was in Chicago in the weather.
And as for New England, the only teams they held below 23 points are Tennessee, Arizona, St. Louis, NY Jets, Miami, and one surprise: Denver. Denver put up just 21 points but had multiple turnovers in scoring position and New England was fortunate to recover those turnovers. The Texans are a very balanced offense and I can see them scoring at least 23 tonight.
For New England's team total, they are averaging 36 ppg this year and have scored below 28 points on 3 occasions: In Seattle, in Miami, and home vs. Arizona when they lost Hernandez in-game.
Houston's defense has not allowed many points but many of the opposing offenses they have played have been anemic to put it midly: Miami, Jacksonville (w/ Gabbert), Tennessee, NY Jets, Buffalo, Chicago in heavy wind/rain w/o Cutler. The only surprises have been Denver (Denver scored 25 in week 3, their offense is much better now than it was week 3) and Baltimore, the week after Baltimore lost several defensive starters.
However, teams like GB, Det and even Jacksonville a couple of weeks ago put up 42, 37 and 31 respectively against this Texans defense. And the Patriots have the best offense of any of those teams.
Both teams are playing worse now than all season in the red zone on defense: NE allows 57% (24th) but is allowing 63% the last 3 weeks. Houston allows 44% (5th) but is allowing 57% the last 3 weeks.
And both teams are playing better on offense in the red zone than their YTD averages as well: NE is converting 66% but is 69% the last 3 weeks, and Houston is converting 61% but also at 69% the last 3 weeks. NE makes the most red zone trips/game of any team in the league, and in 2nd place are the Texans.
So between both offenses being more productive now than at any point inside the red zone, and both defenses struggling of late inside the red zone, I do see points in this game.
END OF HIS WRITE_UP
Obviously he has good reasons for teasing NE and I may change my mind as the trends look pretty convincing. But I really like Hou getting nearly 2 TDs. Maybe I'll go both ways on the side.
Good Luck!
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