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  1. #1
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    "Mock Hilton Tie Breaker Picks" Week #2

    Divisional Round "Mock Hilton" Tie Breaker Week#2



    Please pick all 4 Games ATS and email them to me by 12:00 Noon Saturday at rockets101@aol.com

    Good luck



    woodee12 ............den-gb-atl-hou

    Masked Prognosticator.....den-gb-sea-ne


    Baltimore Ravens
    Denver Broncos -9.5

    Green Bay Packers
    San Francisco 49ers -3

    Seattle Seahawks
    Atlanta Falcons -2.5

    Houston Texans
    New England Patriots -9.5
    Last edited by The Boys; 01-12-2013 at 01:08 AM.

  2. #2
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    Oct 1999
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    denver
    sf
    atl
    houston

    I KNOW NFL playoff tiebreakers! Do NOT go against me! Bank it! These will go at least 3-1 or RR84 will never post again on here!

    ps- I hope this post doesn't offend anyone
    Last edited by hart attack; 01-09-2013 at 10:26 AM.

  3. #3
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    Hart Attack has spoken! LOL

  4. #4
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    hart attack - my friend, I saw two of those picks different than you. I'll indicate the two after the tie-breaker finalist submit their picks. By the way are these picks you're betting or do you just feel strongly about these picks?

    ps- once again- no offense taken.

  5. #5
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    I have no feelings......I am one cold fish

  6. #6
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    My picks have been emailed

    Good luck woodee!

  7. #7
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    picks are up

  8. #8
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    hart attack- the two games I see differently than yours are: Baltimore and Seattle- you seem to be strong on the home team this week. BOL to Woodee12 and to MP.

  9. #9
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    Sep 2001
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    AWESOME! Me and woodee have some different sides this week so maybe we will have a clear winner.

    Here's my rationale for my picks, feel free to use the info I provide, but as always, I sure as hell don't know everything, so do your own research or stick to your successful methods:

    The pick I think is a no brainer in New England -9 1/2 over Houston.
    I don’t think New England is going to win 63-0 like they did earlier in the year, but all the positive trends I found favor NE, with nothing but negative trends at Houston, including Matt Schaub as a 9-15 ats road dog. Even New England at 1-7-1 ATS home favorite off rest is cancelled by Houston being 1-5 versus an opponent off rest. Houston lost 2 of their last regular season games, won a game they should have v Cincy, I just cant visualize a close game here.

    The pick I like the second most is Green Bay covering the 3 at Frisco; my eyebrows were raised when I first saw this line, after all, didn’t Frisco school the mighty Packers at Lambeau earlier in the season? Should they not be at least a touchdown favorite?

    Well, by doing so you'd be asking a rookie quarterback (not Alex Smith who spanked the Pack earlier this year) to cover a 7 points spread against the great Aaron Rodgers, who has been here before, and is 12-6 ATS as a dog. The Packers are also an impressive 14-1 ATS off a straight up win versus a rested opponent. There are a couple of trends that favor San Francisco as well (that Id be happy to post), but I think Vegas is winking at the bettor with the 3 point line.

    I don’t like the 9 1/2 points, but I think Baltimore shot their wad with the Ray Lewis lovefest last week in Baltimore. Now they have to go to a high altitude versus Peyton Manning. I don’t like the points, but I like the Broncos as a 10-3 home favorite off a week of rest, and 10-2 with rest versus an opponent with a winning record. There’s not one favorable trend pointing at Baltimore. I think Denver wins the game, not sure about the 9 1/2 points though, personally I think its too high a price, but the gun is to my head so I am taking the Broncos.

    The game I HATE, and would not bet one penny in Chinese money on, is Seattle v Atlanta. This is a brutal game to forecast. On one hand there is a bunch of BRUTAL trends going against Seattle; on the other hand, many of these were live trends going into last weeks game, and Seattle covered. On the other hand, RG# was injured. . . . . (if only we could find a one-handed handicapper!)

    BUT, Atlanta is 2-7 ats when rested. On the other hand, Matty Ice is 25-13-1 ats at home, 33-18-1 as a favorite, and 22-12-1 as the home favorite.

    HOWEVER, here is the craziest NFL system you will ever hear, because its so counter-intuitive, and I put this put there on Twitter last night @MPrognosticator.

    It involves Pacific Time Zone teams that play back to back road games in the Eastern Time Zone and how they are against the spread in the second game. Obviously, flying out to the East Coast and then back to the West Coast and then back again is brutal, RIGHT?
    .
    .
    .
    .
    .

    Not so fast, Holmes. PTZ teams that play back to back EST teams on the road are 15 . . .
    .
    .
    .
    .
    .
    .
    .


    . . . 3-1 ATS IN THAT SECOND GAME SINCE 1994! 15-3-1 ATS! And a somewhat impressive 11-7 OUTRIGHT winner in that second game!

    Why do these airport weary teams play their east coast opponents so hard? Who knows. Reverse jet lag? They catch a good sleep after 12 hours of flying time? The coaches and players use the 6 hour flight out East to gameplan? I don’t have an answer, but a 86% system can not be just luck, and its a system that seems consistent through the 2002 divisional alignment. I researched the 3 "losers" and found no consistent pattern.

    You have a team coming into Atlanta that is road-method versus a team that does not do well with rest. Do the math, I guess.

    Finally, here’s the final kicker. The line opened at ATL -2; its now -2 1/2 with the public betting Atlanta. You would think OK Vegas just raises the line to 3 or 3 1/2 to get money behind Seattle, right? Nope. Vegas is charging 20 POINTS on the -2 1/2 rather than raising the line. That tells me all I need to know: Vegas is scared shitless of Seattle. I’ve seen this about 8-10 times this year, and only once has the dog not covered.

    I hate making this pick, because I hate making the "trendy" media pick, and again, I don’t like the game one bit---but the gambling Gods are shining a light towards the Seahawks in this one.

    The purpose of this Forum is to make the Bookies Life Hell, and I hope my advice helps you do that this weekend, and again, good luck to woodee, and thank you to bettorsworld.com for sponsoring this contest that hopefully will find a last place winner for that 168 bucks this weekend, because I am EXHAUSTED!
    @MPrognosticator
    Last edited by Masked Prognosticator; 01-12-2013 at 04:24 AM.

  10. #10
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    Gl buddy. I went back and forth on green bay. Almost picked sf actually.

    I feel Houston can beat ne myself.

    In order I like, Atlanta, Houston, Denver, green bay.

  11. #11
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    Sep 2001
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    Well wood we both took a bath today, I have to hand it to Kaepernick, he really came through for the Niners. Its become clear to me that the days of betting against green quarterbacks is over. I should have known Peyton Manning would never change . . . . .

  12. #12
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    Wow. I guess I am a texans fan right now to force another tie.
    Gl!!

  13. #13
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    Nice win. I wish Atlanta wouldn't have melted down. We'd be at it again next week!

  14. #14
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    Aug 2012
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    Congratulations to both Masked Prognosticator and to Woodee12 -both of you did very well in this contest. The games this weekend were crazy-you definitely got to see which teams were frauds though. It's hard to go by what you see in the regular season out of most NFL teams. It's only in the post season that you find out what they are really made of.

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