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  1. #1
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    Aug 2007
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    DINGERS NFL PICKS WEEK AFC/NFC CHAMPIONSHIP

    Wow some fun games to watch as a fan and a bettor. Well I only went 2-2, but my top pick of the 49ers was a big winner.

    Here we go.

    Atl +4.5 (My line SF-2) (ATL Bye/Home/Home) (SF traveling 2,000+ miles)

    BAL +9 (My line NE -6.5) (I have Baltimore with a slight edge on a tougher schedule, why my line is a little different Vegas)

    My top pick this week.....Baltimore +9 (gulp)

    I'm sure my picks are far off on the public side in this one.

    I stated my record in Divisional Playoff was awesome. Now to see the ugly.

    2011: 0-2
    2010: 1-1
    2009: 1-1
    2008: 0-2
    2007: 1-1
    2006: 0-2
    2005: 1-1

    AFC/NFC Championship: 4-10

  2. #2
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    Sep 1998
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    oh my

  3. #3
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    Sep 1998
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    2472 air miles to be correct Dinger SF will travel.

    Is that what this pick is based on? The circadian effect?

    I thought this line should be 5

  4. #4
    Join Date
    Aug 2000
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    OK, public perception is HUGE in the NFL! All signs point to a SF win, an easy win. Public is pounding SF.

    How far does it go until you take the Falcons? Just based on principle that SF look like the better team based on the games everyone watched this past weekend. I think 3 was a soft opener, but I don't think SF is going to waltz into ATL and do it that easy.

    Thought from the ATL backers, besides Dinger?

    My first gut reaction was SF easy, but now thinking it over a bit now.

  5. #5
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    Always stay with your gut Woodee RULE ONE

  6. #6
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    Distance traveled is just one small indicator I use for creating my own line. I think I made some wrong adjustments and again had to
    tweek the formula. I figure the closer my lines are to Vegas, then I should be close. Still seeing some huge differences in some games.
    2.5 points off on this weeks games...not too bad.

  7. #7
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    Sep 1998
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    Well I appreciate your response Dinger and good luck.

    "2.5 points off on this weeks games...not too bad."

    2.5 is huge to be off in the scheme of things.
    Last edited by Carpet; 01-15-2013 at 07:52 PM.

  8. #8
    Join Date
    Sep 2010
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    Good luck dinger. I think 4.5 was the highest I've seen it hit though I hear it touched 5 briefly and is back down to 4.
    Personally like SF myself so long as they are not walking that 2400 miles

    Certainly like the baltimore pick a lot. That's a lot of points and these two place each other close.

  9. #9
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    Aug 2007
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    I just think a team traveling 2,400 miles versus a team traveling 300 miles may come out a little flat due to a little jet lag and time zone change. A team not traveling for three weeks (Bye-Home-Home) (be more) ready to play like Atlanta versus Seattle last week. Seattle was the better team, but came out flat and a little unfocused early on. I do adjust the home field advantage based on miles traveled or teams back to back road (when applicable).

  10. #10
    Join Date
    Aug 2012
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    160
    Dinger, how's it going my friend. I'm with you on Baltimore. I think they can hang with NE offensively and keep it close-gotta consider the pts. (too good to ignore). I think Atlanta is a fraud and by all rights shouldn't even be in this game -as many times as they tried to give the game away last week. Also, Matty Ice is a figment of media hype- has he won anything significant that we know of? The regular season is different than the playoffs by far. As many time as I've watched Atlanta, I'm sorry but I'm going to go with what my eyes have been seeing and what my gut tells me- San Francisco might even blow them out.

  11. #11
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    Aug 2000
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    I am still leaning Atlanta myself. Going to wait and see what the numbe does. Hope to get at least 4.5.

    Of the 2 favs, I feel New Elgland has the better chance to cover over Baltimore. No real reason, expcet for a gut feeling that the Ravens have used all they have.

    So, Atlanta +4 and NE -8 are going to be my plays most likely. Or maybe even a tease with those 2 teams would be a better idea.

    Good Luck guys...As I try to rmind myself...these are only 2 games. Many more betting opprtunites the rest of the year with more value. BUT NFL football is most fun in my eyes!

  12. #12
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
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    1,977
    just came across this for those leaning BAL.
    Since 1990 #4 seeds are 6-1 in the title game and
    4-0 when playing @ the #2 seed.
    This is the first time in a long while that we've seen public
    money trend against NE.

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