SUPER Super Bowl System

[daddyd]

Have to agree with Woody picking the 49's. Vegas is begging you to take the Ravens with the half point hook.Everyone I have spoke with is playing Baltimore plus the points. When you go to Vegas look around at the huge plush casinos, they dont build them like that because the general public wins. SF is a different team with the rookie Qb much like RGIII but healthy. If the rook goes down you have Alex Smith with a very good QB rating to step right in. Who is Flaccos back up? The thing that is scary laying points is if SF is up by three I dont see them going for anymore points against his brother. Both teams have good offenses and defenses I think the read option is a major difference in this game. If SF can contain Smith and Bolden then I see Ravens depending on Rice and the ground game but they cant stick to that if they get behind early. I for one believe it may be higher scoring than most believe. Just my 2 cents worth. Good luck to all however you wager.

[dragon1952]

SF has given up 34, 42, 31 and 24 pts against the last 4 play-off teams they've faced (NE, Sea, GB and Atl) for an average of 32.75 ppg. and they've been out-first downed and out-yarded in 3 of those. Baltimore held Indy to 9 pts and NE to just 13 pts and they are +5 in TO ratio in their 3 playoff games (SF is +2 in 2 games). I know that doesn't tell the whole story but I think the way Baltimore is playing and the fact that SF isn't coming close to shutting any offenses down lately bodes well for a Raven team getting more than a FG.

[daddyd]

You are correct but this same raven team gave up 35 to Denver.

[WildCard]

I've placed 4 small to medium bets so far on Balt +4.5 to +3.5.

Fixing to place 1/4 of my bankroll Balt+3.5 @-105.

If favorable results received from Taxman, then put remaining 3/4 on Balt next friday @ -105.

This is largest wager I've ever won !

[dragon1952]

You are correct but this same raven team gave up 35 to Denver.

yeah but 35, 13 and 9 sounds better than 34, 42, 31 and 24 :^ )

[Taxman]

I will try to run this information over the next weekend. I'm interested to see the results as well.

Still summarizing

[guy]

How would Strenght of Schedule factor into depending on a system like this? The team with the better stats. could have built their stat. advantages playing weaker teams. The team with the inferior stats. could have played and possibly beaten better competition (building their house on a firmer foundation (IMO). In other words- are these statistical advantages Signal or Noise?

[KJALB]

Using hank Stram's system favors SF big or did I not figure the point system right?
Anyone else figure it this way?

[Taxman]

I did the Hank Stram system.

It has SF 55.5 Baltimore 4

1. Give 10 points if a team has won a Super Bowl in the last three years. 0
2. Give 8.0 points to any team whose opponent is playing in their very first Super Bowl in franchise history. 0
3. Give 8.0 points to the team that has allowed the fewer defensive rushes. 8 SF
4. Give 7.0 points to the team with the best straight up win/loss record including playoffs. 7 SF
5. Give 7.0 points to the team with the most offensive rushes. 7 SF
6. Give 5.0 points to the team with the lower defensive rush average per carry. 5 SF
7. Give 4.0 points to the team that has the best net kick-punt touchdown returns. 4 BAL
8. Give 4.0 points to the team the team with the better record against the point spread. 4 SF
9. Give 4.0 points to the team that has the superior net penalty yards. 4 SF
10. Give 3.5 points to the team that has the best yards per pass attempt. 3.5 SF
11. Give 3.5 points to the team that has given up the fewest points. 3.5 SF
12. Give 3.5 points to the team that has allowed the fewest rushing touchdowns. 3.5 SF
13. Give 3.0 points to the team that has the most sacks. 3 SF
14. Give 2.5 points to the team with the fewest offensive pass attempts. 2.5 SF
15. Give 2.0 points to the team that had the best net punts (total) on the year. 2 SF
16. Give 1.5 points to the team with the best average per offensive rush. 1.5 SF
17. Give 1.0 points to the team with the best completion percentage. 1 SF

It did lose the last 2 years (Pitt & NE). But it did pick NO SU.

[Taxman]

How would Strenght of Schedule factor into depending on a system like this? The team with the better stats. could have built their stat. advantages playing weaker teams. The team with the inferior stats. could have played and possibly beaten better competition (building their house on a firmer foundation (IMO). In other words- are these statistical advantages Signal or Noise?

SOS really does not matter. Everyone is going to play at least 4 games against really bad teams.

Go to ESPN and look at the year end standings, you'll see the season SOS. Though, one thing I have seen is and I'm looking at for next season are those teams whose SOS is less than .400 generally lose their first playoff game. Don't hold me to that, as I am populating that fact for next year.

[KJALB]

Thats the numbers I came out with too Taxman.
The last time I played using Hanks system it won with STL beating Tenn. I havent seen it since.
Thanks for posting it bro.
Not to sure I'll use it though

[noname]

"Matriculate the ball down the field boys" one of the great coaching quotes of all time.Mr. Hank Stramm and he could pick winners.

[WildCard]

Still summarizing

Taxman,

Were you able to determine the past W/L history for the system ?

Thanks for the effort anyway.

Sincerely appreciate the job you did regarding the contest.

Best regards,
WildCard

[WildCard]

Well the system worked, and was I glad it did.