Late Super Bowl Observations

[WildCard]

Line now SF -4.5 ML -200
Balt ML +170 and total 48

Will the gay issue and QB's mother have any effect on SF's play ?

Does hype on Ray Lewis turn some teammates little less than 100% on say 1 or 2 downs ?

I'm thinking one of the main factors will be if Balt can contain SF QB.
Believe Balt's CBs to play like LBers and trouble QB all day.

Final Play:
1/3 of remaing bankroll Balt +170
1/3 on Balt +4.5
1/3 on Teaser Balt +10.5 and Over 42

Shall watch with "mild" attention !

[guy]

With you all the way my friend- Baltimore will give inexperienced QB fits. Today will show Kaepernick's lack of experience.

[dragon1952]

The total on this game really has me at a loss. On one hand SF is supposed to be one of the top defenses, in fact they are #3 in YPG allowed giving up an avg of just 294.5 ypg. Baltimore is #17 giving up around 55 more YPG. SF also gives up the 2nd fewest FD's per game (17) and also the 2nd fewest total pts and ppg. at approx 17 ppg. Baltimore is at around #12 giving up around 21.5 ppg and 20.5 FD's. Those are regular season stats.
Postseason however, both teams have given up around 415 ypg and both have given up around 7 more FD's per game than during the season. In addition, SF has given up 10 more ppg for an avg of 27.5 ppg postseason. Baltimore has actually given up less at 19 ppg postseason.
So which SF defense will we see in the SB? The one that gave up 17 ppg and 294 ypg or the one that has given up 27.5 and 415?
Baltimore's D is probably a bit stouter than Atlanta's and Green Bay's so SF may not match the same output in this game that they have against those 2 teams. Baltimore has benefited from Ray Lewis' return no doubt. And the Ravens offense has been much more dangerous under Jim Caldwell, so if SF's defense gives up 415 yds and nearly 28 pts again you would certainly favor OV 48. But if both defenses show up with renewed enthusiasm we could get a 21-20 type game also.
Another "however" though is the fact that SF played a few pretty lousy teams that may have boosted their defensive stats a bit giving up just 3 to Buf, Ari and the Jason Campbell-led Bears, 0 to the Jets, and 13 to both Mia and Ari. In the other 10 games they gave up an avg of nearly 24 ppg. which coincides much better with their post-season performance.
I'm going to look for Bal to score a minimum of 24 pts, and I think SF can do the same, so I'm going to side with the OV in this game, and considering the improved offensive play of the Ravens under Caldwell and the way SF has performed against all but the dregs of the league I'll take the +4.5 pts with Baltimore.

[Carpet]

I disagree strongly with your take on causing Kapernick fits this kid is a stud and has a great mind and maturity he will be up to the task.

[woodee12]

I lost with sf but overall I had the right side. Super bowl wagers are suckers bets. I wagered for the hell of it but this game stinks. If anyone bets more than one unit o. It yoyou are a fool!
It's a coin flip at best. I guess if you won you disagree but even if I did I would still preach the same thing!
WAy to go ravens bettors but for me this game means as much as the Charlotte bobcats next game. Maybe nothing.

[WildCard]

I lost with sf but overall I had the right side. Super bowl wagers are suckers bets. I wagered for the hell of it but this game stinks. If anyone bets more than one unit o. It yoyou are a fool!
It's a coin flip at best. I guess if you won you disagree but even if I did I would still preach the same thing!
WAy to go ravens bettors but for me this game means as much as the Charlotte bobcats next game. Maybe nothing.

Don't understand where you get off calling Balt bettors "fools".
How is it you had the right side ?
I cashed big time.
Appears you've been eating sour grapes.

[woodee12]

Yep, My bad. Congrats to the Baltimore ticket holders. Good call.
I was just saying that I think SF was the right call and a couple of breaks, I think they would have won.
Thats betting. Just feel that I made the right call, on my end even if its a loser, thats all.Doesn;t make much sense probably. I know I have stupid plays and good plays, that win and lose, this was one of those good ones that I may win more than I lose in the long run.

Basically, with my jibberish, all I have to say is that I had a RR moment last night....too many pints from the Sam Adams sampler pack I had!

[dragon1952]

Don't understand where you get off calling Balt bettors "fools".
How is it you had the right side ?
I cashed big time.
Appears you've been eating sour grapes.

He didn't actually say that Bal bettors were fools....he said if anyone bets more than 1 unit on the SB they are fools (which in this case could possibly mean the same thing :^ ) He was obviously a little distraught, and I've been there for many a Super Bowl. It's the last chance to cash in on the NFL and it sucks losing. woodee's a good guy so I wouldn't read too much into this. Alcohol plus losing don't always mix.
Not that I agree with him. I think there are definitely spots where you can go big on a SB side, just like during the regular season. And I don't agree that SF was the right side at that spread. Their defense had not been that good against the better teams. But I think what he's saying (giving him the benefit of the doubt) is that "generally speaking" bettors might tend to go overboard just because it's the SB and that you shouldn't treat it any differently.

[guy]

Woodee12, This time you kind of lost me - I would have to respectfully disagree with you here my friend. I say this because the Super Bowl is a match-up of (supposedly) the two best teams in that particular year. The game is also a very good test of whether you can handicap the right side of the game and win. If you win, then evidently you did something right in handicapping that particular game. It doesn't necessarily make you better at handicapping than those who lost or anything like that because you would still have to consider the cappers complete body of work (over time).You would a not be a fool because how much you bet is up to the individual- some may not risk much, some may play a lot- that would be up to the bettor and their ability to absorb a loss.

I also don't think "it's a coin flip at best" because one team could actually be far superior to the other in many aspects of play and maybe how you evalute play and wins and losses is what separates whether you can distinguish true team strength. Usually, the stronger team wins but luck hovers over each game too. Last night it reared it's head by way of the light grid. Up until that happened it looked like a run away win for Baltimore. When the lights came back on, the momentum had shifted and San Fran got back into the game and actually had a very good chance to win.

I agree with you that overall it is just another bet option but I totally disagree with you on the importance of picking this game right . Try selling your top selection on the Super Bowl game versus selling your selection of the Charlotte Bobcat game to find the truth of that fact. Anyone involved with selling their handicapped games would attest to that.
I also disagree with you about being on the right side of the game. In betting (IMO) there is only one right side of the game and that is the side that cashes- would you not agree on that basic betting principle?
If money is being wagered in betting, if you goal is not to win that money, I would have to then ask- what is your goal?
This is not a personal attack or anything of that nature (I hate that I even have to take the time to qualify that) because we're all here (I hope) to exchange information, opinions and thoughts on betting with the goal of winning bets. I have learned a lot by considering what others have to say in the various forums I participate in and would never disrespect someone ele's opinion. I might not agree with them but that's totally different than disrespect.

[woodee12]

Fair enough guys. Thanks for the opinions on it. I wouldn;t read into too much. Just chimed in after a good party and game, thats all. And the bet I lost was about 1/2 unit so I don't care all that much about losing it actually! I just hate to lose period no matter what the amount!

Back to college hoops for me where I have been on a nice run of late.

Thanks again, and no disrespect to anyone on this matter.

[guy]

Spoken like a true gentleman- BOL with your College B-Ball my friend.