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  1. #1
    Join Date
    Aug 2007
    Posts
    1,253

    DINGERS NFL PICKS WEEK 3

    I developed my own system going on 10 years now. Looking for that magic formula.

    I was going to make a modification because I was leaning too hard on the dogs...but the system went 10-5-1...I think I'll hold off.

    This week 6 favorites and 10 dogs.

    Last Week: 10-5-1
    Overall: 17-12-1

    Pick of the Week (POW): Win (NYJ) (2-0)
    Top 5: 4-1 (7-3)
    Mock 1: 4-1 (7-2-1)
    Mock 2: 3-2 (6-4)

    Week 2
    Top 5
    1* Bal +2.5 (POW)
    1* CIN +2.5
    1* OAK +14.5
    1* CAR PK
    1* CLE +5.5 (Couldn't pick them in Mock Hilton after trade)

    Best of Rest
    Pit +2.5
    TB +7 (I have this exact line in my system...1st tie-breaker to TB)
    STL +3.5
    AZ +7.5
    DET +1
    MIA -1
    SF -10.5
    SEA -19.5 (My system has Sea -20)
    NYJ -2.5
    KC +3
    TEN -3

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Aug 2000
    Posts
    8,269
    I think you and I are the only ones in the world who like Carolina but I don't know if I can pull the trigger on them unless it possibly gets to +3.

    I wanted to play th in the contests but the line is stale at -1.

    I like Tampa bay too.

    Baltimore is my fav of the week as well.

    Good luck!

  3. #3
    Join Date
    Sep 2010
    Posts
    1,580
    I haven't seen a pk on carolina anywhere. It opened at -1.5 for not very long and is sitting at -1 so it certainly will not drop to +3.
    The interesting part is that public is all over the Giants so there is a slight reverse line movement and that worries me.

    I also love the baltimore pick, on it as well.

    Good luck.

  4. #4
    Join Date
    Aug 2007
    Posts
    1,253
    Resteasy...I normally look at the lines on Tuesday using the Bettorsworld link. I use the most popular lines of the the 10ish sports books.

    I then calculate my line and look for the biggest difference. The higher the star on my picks the bigger the difference. They are all 1*'s this week, meaning my line and the bookies are very close.

    The Carolina line...I don't exactly remember all the books postings on Tuesday, I guess I could have seen it wrong, but not sure.

  5. #5
    Join Date
    Aug 2000
    Posts
    8,269
    There is nobody on the panthers. Pros or around here.

    I agree with you on that number too. No way it gets to 3 for book exposure.

    I just have a sneaky suspicion Carolina wins this one.

  6. #6
    Join Date
    Aug 2000
    Posts
    8,269
    91% of the bets are on the giants!

  7. #7
    Join Date
    Sep 2010
    Posts
    1,580
    Thanks dinger, didnt even notice the single star.
    I use a local book who generally has the same lines as the big ones. It was car -1.5 then -1 but has jumped to nyg -1.
    As posted, majority on gmen. Dont love seeing that but also dont let that affect my decisions.

    Good luck and keep up the good work

  8. #8
    Join Date
    Oct 1999
    Posts
    596
    I *love* the panthers!! Win baby win! People just are having trouble with "0-3' Giants, but it will happen.

  9. #9
    Join Date
    Aug 2007
    Posts
    1,253
    Great call on the Panthers team. I wish I stuck with my Cleveland pick in the mock hilton, but got gun shy after the trade that the team would hit a melt down with the back-up QB.

  10. #10
    Join Date
    Sep 2010
    Posts
    1,580
    daaaammmmnnnnnn. Gmen blow! good call.

  11. #11
    Join Date
    Aug 2007
    Posts
    1,253
    AFC went 6-1 against the NFC...and I thought the NFC had the superior teams. Makes the playoff race very interesting on both sides.

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