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Thread: Hockey Wed 16

  1. #1
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    Hockey Wed 16

    So, first some thoughts from last night. Toronto definitely was the strongest bet of the night. This play came in very well last year and it is what started me betting hockey. It coincides with Garister's system 2. His system 2 justs looks for a team on a B2B traveling. Last night you had 3.. Minn, Edm and Buff and you can almost throw in Det they traveled back home from Boston. So, if you remember, I think it was Mask Prog presented this to everyone last year. I followed it. So, basically here are my tweaks to it. I mainly try to stick to B2B road teams. If the team on the B2B wins it's first game(ex Minn beating Buff on Mon), it came in around a 32-8 pace last year. If the team lost its first game I found that it is a little tougher for them to lose 2 games in a row. If they are playing a solid team ( ex: Pitt against Edm last night) it comes in but not as easy, hence a smaller bet and parlays last night for me. And if the team on the B2B first game loss is playing a mediocre or bad team (ex: NYI ag Buff last night) the B2B team came up with a win more often. This is the play to figure out because you can usually get a really good price. Last night I went with NYI because of they had a home scoring streak going on (and they still kept it by going to OT) and because of Garister's system 1 home play, but I only used them in a 1* parlay.
    So, in retrospect last night played out just about like it should have. I should have had more money on Toronto at least 3or 4*.

  2. #2
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    More thoughts, San Jose made a statement.. I am telling you to watch out for this team. I didn't bet them last night, but I have already made good money on them. They are lights out at home, only 2 losses all last year. They have a road game Thurs and then 1 at home before a tough 5 game road trip. We will have to keep an eye on them on the road trip.
    Colorado is still playing tough New coach Patrick Roy has them playing tough, kind of like Harbaugh's first year in SF. They made little changes from last year and are still undefeated. I haven't totally bought into them yet, hence only my parlay bet on them last night. Although, I did add them in a 1* parlay to Chicago.
    The interesting game for me last night was the Phx-Ott game. I watched the game because I really wanted to see how it played out. Ott on it's 3rd game in 4 nights and Phx coming home from a 5 game road trip. Like I had said, at first I liked Phx but was unaware of them coming home from this trip. This is a play.. To bet against a team coming home from a 4 or more game road trip. This is 1 trend I do not understand at all!! So, I thought I was ok when Phx went up 2-0 even though they looked really out of whack and lethargic. When Ott cut it to 2-1 at the end of the 2nd I was very close to betting them for the 3rd period. Which would mean if they did win I would push my original bet. If I would have done that I could still have won both bets because Ott did win the 3rd and if Phx would have won in OT I would have won both. Hopefully I won't put myself in this position again. It was a learning loss. But it was surprising that a tired team Ott (3rd game in 4 nights) still overcame that trend. So, does that mean that a none tired team should cover that trend easily? Well, we get to find out right away. Now Ott arrives home off of a 6 game road trip to play the NJD on Thurs and after that the NJD arrive home off of a 5 game road trip to play the NYR. We will see!!

  3. #3
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    So, on to today!!

    Record: yesterday 4-2 +382.. YTD 6-2 + 582
    Anaheim plays Calgary: Cal has played well above its potential so far this year, no regulation losses and they led Wash by 3 goals and lost and Van by 2 and lost. Anaheim has beaten them 18 out of the last 19 home games. Calgary hasn't won in Anaheim since 2004. Are they that much improved? I haven't decided my total bet yet. I have bet Ana 2*, but I might add one more or I might use them in a parlay to Wash. I want to check the stats on a team playing their first home game against a team that knocked them out of the playoffs the previous year. The Rangers beat them in 7 games last year winning the last game 5-0. So, I will be back with more....

  4. #4
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    Looking good so far,
    I have a theory as to why a team struggles in its first home game after a long trip. I haven't checked this but I believe
    they play more poorly if they had a winning trip vs a team coming home after a lousy trip.
    anyway
    I think they play bad cause when their away they are focused on the opponent, when they get home they have all this stuff to get caught up on, IE Life, families, bills,errands. they aren't focused on winning.

    anaheim is play on system 1 for tonight too. but I have this feeling calgary plays them tough they had 5 days to get ready.

  5. #5
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    Yeah, I agree with that. Kind of the same thing with home football teams playing around Christmas.
    Anaheim has only played 1 game on Sunday in that time. I want to think Calgary plays them tough, but I think Anaheim pulls out in the end. They both usually start out strong. Calgary in both games they lost were leading Wash 4-1 in the 2P and Van 3-1 in the 3P. On that note, I went with over 1 1/2 goals 1st period -125 for 1*.
    I still haven't come up with anything on the NYR- Wash game. The Rangers knocked them out of the playoffs the previous yeAr too and still beat them at home last year 4-1. The Rangers have been playing horribly and Wash not that much better. The Rangers have been giving up a ton of goals. I just don't want to miss an easy spot here.
    Anyone have any thoughts on this game?

  6. #6
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    End of the 1P in the Ana game. Refs stole a goal. The Ducks look horrible and are still up 2-1. If the don't pick up the passing and intensity they will lose this one.

  7. #7
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    Nice call on 1P!

    2 disallowed goals 1 apiece, kept this game under when a Lot like the over

  8. #8
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    I myself have been trying to stay away from the totals for the whole game. There is just no continuity to them. So, far out of 94 games.. There have been 38 overs 48 unders and 8 ties with 33 games falling on 5. Lately I have seen games starting out fast and just staying on 5.

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