Help Me out Here: GB and the NYG

[stardust]

I see a lot of people picking two teams:

Green Bay
NYG

GB hasn't scored more than 13 points since losing starting QB Aaron Rodgers, now they are favorites of more than a FG over Minnesota. Since they don't seem to be able to score, a favorite - especially of more than a FG seems way off base to me. They lost games without AR to Phila and the NYG. Sure they play Minn, a team with documented QB issues and running back AP has a groin issue, but 4 points with Scott Tolzien?

Leading me to the NYG, a 2½ point favorite over Dallas. Even though the G-Men's defense has salvaged the season, they beat a string of teams with shitty QBs: Minn (a team with no established QB), Phila (against a hobbled Foles), Oakland (against an injured Pryor), and GB (see above). At home against a QB that CAN be effective, but has issues seems to be a coin toss at best.

Thoughts?

[resteasy]

Let me help you on the giants part.

You answered your own question. A coin toss. Generally 3 points go to home team. That -2.5 is home field advantage.
Also, who has dallas beaten? They just edged the vikings in dallas, beat the eagles with foles leaving mid game and matt barkley in as well (that's their only road win). Dallas is 31st in passing yards allowed and 27th against the rush. Giants now have andre brown healthy and starting his 3rd game back along with a defense that as you mentioned is playing better.

This is a huge division game and the first time these two met (in dallas) the cowboys only just barely won even with 6 turnovers. Line is absolutely right.
Bet who you think will win.

Packers have tolzein getting a 2nd full week of practice (remember the philly game wallace took all the reps tolzein came in after wallace injury). Vikings defense has been horrendous this year. Add to that this takes place in green bay and the public likes the packers and the line makes sense though i may agree on vikings as a play.

[oldluds]

I'll chime in on the Pack. Tolzien is the hardest worker there is. Another solid week learning the system. Will cut down on mistakes. Rodgers hoping to be able to play on Thanksgiving, actually outside chance he might have been ready this week, but playing it safe. All week talk is we can't fall to 5-6, and in all likelihood be 2 back of both Chi and Det. So the proverbial "must win" game. The high tomorrow is barely going to be in the 20's, weather where the Pack seems to do better than their opponents. Hope not kiss of death, but I see a comfy 27-14 type game. BTW, I am on the Giants train too

[dragon1952]

That Minnesota pass defense is horrible. They're giving up nearly 300 yds per game with the 3rd highest QB completion rate and have given up 23 passing TD's....23! Dallas passing D is just as bad or worse. Those 2 teams are also a combined 1-9 on the road. Plus Peterson is less than 100% for the Vikes.

[Carpet]

STARDUST

Glad you ask.

Minny at GB: I have this line at +3 and + 5 played both. If you throw out the historical stats and focus on current level of play the Vikings are the play here- Sharp Play I think.

Dallas +2.5 at Giants: Romo will exploit the giants secondary to score points- Giants look like a paper tiger on paper. Take Dallas

[stardust]

Let me help you on the giants part.

You answered your own question. A coin toss. Generally 3 points go to home team. That -2.5 is home field advantage.
Also, who has dallas beaten? They just edged the vikings in dallas, beat the eagles with foles leaving mid game and matt barkley in as well (that's their only road win). Dallas is 31st in passing yards allowed and 27th against the rush. Giants now have andre brown healthy and starting his 3rd game back along with a defense that as you mentioned is playing better.

This is a huge division game and the first time these two met (in dallas) the cowboys only just barely won even with 6 turnovers. Line is absolutely right.
Bet who you think will win.

Packers have tolzein getting a 2nd full week of practice (remember the philly game wallace took all the reps tolzein came in after wallace injury). Vikings defense has been horrendous this year. Add to that this takes place in green bay and the public likes the packers and the line makes sense though i may agree on vikings as a play.

OK, as far as NYG/Dallas, good insight. 6 TO and won the first game, helpful info. Who has Dallas beaten?

1 point loss to
KC @ KC
Denver @ Home
Detroit (due to clock management, at least in part)

Beat Phila, held them to 3 points (vs Barkley @ QB = noted)
Beat St. Louis handily 31-7 and the Rams - to me at least - are always a threat. Jeff Fisher is a sharp HC.
Beat the Skins handily, expected.
Beat Minn, tighter game than I imagined.

Lost to SD, shut out 10-0 in the second half, and simply crushed by NO @ NO - but that's pretty much the NO story, with the exception of game #1 vs Atlanta (won by 6).

Dallas is off a bad beating and a bye week, both a + IMHO; what I don't like is:

Dallas Cowboys coach Jason Garrett has changed the sideline operation for Sunday's game against the New York Giants so that he will have direct contact with quarterback Tony Romo on the field as in previous seasons, according to a league source.

Story Here

Then again some studies have shown that changes, especially non-critical ones, seem to have a short-term positive effect.

Turn that question around: the NYGs haven't beaten anyone of note, a few teams without QBs (including Green Bay) and have been flattened by quality teams, simply run off the field . . . .

Green Bay's Tolzein getting a "2nd full week of practice." Two whole weeks? Wow, color me unimpressed. I'm gonna go out on a limb and say that it takes more than 2 weeks to make a viable NFL QB. The guy is simply unimpressive.

Then again, Minnesota, in an act of desperation, started Josh Freeman who finished with a 40.6 QB rating. If every pass went incomplete, an NFL QB would have a rating of about 70 if he were dead, or every single pass fell incomplete.

I wouldn't bet on GB/Minn with your money. I appreciate and respect everyone's opinion here, which is why I ask. Thanks for your thoughts.

[stardust]

I'll chime in on the Pack. Tolzien is the hardest worker there is. Another solid week learning the system. Will cut down on mistakes. Rodgers hoping to be able to play on Thanksgiving, actually outside chance he might have been ready this week, but playing it safe. All week talk is we can't fall to 5-6, and in all likelihood be 2 back of both Chi and Det. So the proverbial "must win" game. The high tomorrow is barely going to be in the 20's, weather where the Pack seems to do better than their opponents. Hope not kiss of death, but I see a comfy 27-14 type game. BTW, I am on the Giants train too

Hard work doesn't always = success. Certainly a must win, falling too far back and the return of AR won't mean a thing if it's too late. 1 TD and 5 INTs thus far, so just no way I can bet on the guy and even hoping for a defensive battle isn't encouraging laying more than a FG - now standing at 5 points pretty much everywhere.

[stardust]

That Minnesota pass defense is horrible. They're giving up nearly 300 yds per game with the 3rd highest QB completion rate and have given up 23 passing TD's....23! Dallas passing D is just as bad or worse. Those 2 teams are also a combined 1-9 on the road. Plus Peterson is less than 100% for the Vikes.

All true and the Minn pass attack is hardly an attack at all.

[resteasy]

Well, got the green bay game (we all called a tie right?) and dallas giants came down to a final second FG. Those linesmakers sure are good at their job.

Hope you made some money.

[Carpet]

STARDUST

Glad you ask.

Minny at GB: I have this line at +3 and + 5 played both. If you throw out the historical stats and focus on current level of play the Vikings are the play here- Sharp Play I think.

Dallas +2.5 at Giants: Romo will exploit the giants secondary to score points- Giants look like a paper tiger on paper. Take Dallas

You ask and we deliver 2-0 on these games

[stardust]

Let's not gloat too much. Poor sportsmanship and bound to incur the wrath of the Betting Gods. It's early yet and even a blind hog (ME) will find an acorn now and then. I made a small amount, but overall, I'm a walking train wreck this year.

Remember:

Don't get too big a grin when you win, and don't sing the blues when you lose. (Gambler's Credo)

Now that Matt Flynn is back as QB for GB, no reason to rush AR into the traditional Thanksgiving tilt. Only line I see is GB +5. The Pack record for TDs was set against this very team (Detroit) in a meaningless, end of season game not long ago. NOW I'm on GB as long as Flynn is at the helm.

It wan't even a game until thy pulled Tolzein. The spread was never in doubt, ever.

In other news: Manning is a 36 year old QB who will not fare well in bad weather. His mind is probably the sharpest in football, but his body has taken a lot of abuse, We've seen it before: great QBs just "hit the wall" when they hit 35-36, Brady, as well, fits into this category as witnessed by his absolute decimation in the playoffs last year vs the Raven (full disclaimer, I am a Raven fan, MD resident).

Both Manning and Brady will not survive the playoffs when they are forced to play in the elements. Neither has a defense as well, so a double whammy.

I did have Baltimore on the ML @ +340 and +8½ against NE (last year). Would have had them @ 6-1 to win the Super Bowl if not for my wife dragging me away from the ARIA sports book counter. It salvaged my season. Baltimore, at some points in their history, is simply magical.

On to the lines for this week. I have a lot of work ahead.

[wisconsin5473]

Hey Stardust, I wouldn't say that GBay never had a chance to cover. In OT, they took their first possession down to 1st and goal from the 7. 2nd and 3rd in goal from the 2. If they run one of those 3 plays in they win by 6.

[dragon1952]

Hey Stardust, I wouldn't say that GBay never had a chance to cover. In OT, they took their first possession down to 1st and goal from the 7. 2nd and 3rd in goal from the 2. If they run one of those 3 plays in they win by 6.

Yep....they had a great chance there for a TD with a little more imaginative play calling. That cover would have been almost as good as New England's.

As for Green Bay @ Detroit.....Detroit can't play defense and Stafford is as bad as Eli the Lesser Manning at times as far as turning the ball over and overthrowing wide open receivers. How do you hold a 2-8 team at home to just 229 net yds of offense, rack up over 400 yds yourself and lose? 5 TO's to 0 forced. Detroit now has 8 TO's in their last 2 games without forcing a single TO for themselves, and after having just 13 TO's in their first 9 games and forcing 14. 4 out of their last 5 games have been decided by 3 pts or less (the one that wasn't was a 10 pt loss to Pit). If Flynn can do better than Tolzien (and that looks very possible), and against one of the worst passing defenses in the league, this could be a very close game. And if Detroit can't figure out how to prevent these recent TO's, they'll likely lose again.