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  1. #1
    Join Date
    Sep 2006
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    442

    Over/Under Thread Week 12

    Looking at this week's games; of course I started with the Non-conference Over trend (now 14 overs - 1 under, last 5 weeks) but there are only two games matching that criteria this week; Carolina @ Miami and Indi @ Arizona. Some would say this AFC/NFC trend is now an under trend of 1-0 to the Under, last 1.with that Monday nighter (New E/Carolina) just squeaking Under. LOL

    Carolina @ Miami (Total 41): Has dropped from the open of 41.5. Both very good defenses, Miami allowing only 18.3 points last 3 while Carolina is 8 and 2 unders last 10 on grass. For me, probably a 6 pt tease to the over 35, but won't be my best play.

    Indi @ Arizona.(Total 45): This has risen slightly from opening at 44.5. I really like this one to go over. Arizona is over 4 of last 5 and Indy is over 5 of last 6.
    I am away from my home computer this weekend so my writeups and picks will be quick musings on what I researched.


    S.D @ KC (Total 43) Surprising up from opener 41.5. I like the Under here. KC is the best Under team on a 2-11 O/U run and San D. is under 4 of last 5 on the road. Last year, these teams played over both games with San D. winning both 31- 13 and 37 - 20 (in KC). I'll probably wait to see if line goes any higher and may add in a 6pt tease

    Dallas @ NY Gmen (Total 44.5) Total has been bet down from 46.5. Going against the movement, I like the over here. These two teams have played over the total 7 of last 9 with this year's game hitting 67 points in September. I see a pass heavy game between two teams with maybe some added points (hopefully) with a couple Pick 6's. Forecast is for very windy weather. Be warned.

    Pitts @ Cleveland (Total 39.5) Total down from opening at 41. Cold weather, snow and wind are in the forescast. Two games last year each totaled 34 pts. Cleveland has only averaged 9.4 pts in last 10 games versus Pitt. Pick is shaded towards the Under

    Chic @ St. Louis (Total 45.5) Up slightly from 45 opener. I like the over here. St Louis is off the bye and have played Over 6 of last 7 and 5 of last 6 at home. Chicago has played Over 9 of last 12 including 5 of last 6 on the road.

    That is really all I have time for today; Nothing else really "jumped" out at me.

    For this week, 4 picks. My primary play will be Indi/Arizona Over 45 with secondary plays on Chic/StLou Over 45.5, Pitt/Cleve Under 39, and Dallas/NY Over 44.5

    May all your picks be winners, good luck to all.

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Aug 2000
    Posts
    8,937
    Good luck. Like I said, I love that over in the az game and would have been my play of the week if you didn't play it before I posted this morning.

    I didn't understand the move up on the kc total either. I can't see it getting to 40 myself. I played under once it hit 44 this morning.

  3. #3
    Join Date
    Aug 2000
    Posts
    8,937
    I guess someone knew about the shoot out in kc??
    With the way kc's d has played this year, I did not see that coming.

    What kind of info was found that made that total move so much this morning? and them watch it go over by so much. Interesting to me on a late move like that.

  4. #4
    Join Date
    Sep 2006
    Posts
    442
    A lop-sided lead is not going to help my Indy over.
    I see Arizona running clock in the half half.
    Good pick woodie in your Jets under. Never in doubt.

  5. #5
    Join Date
    Sep 2006
    Posts
    442
    Well now...that all worked out as planned. Goes to show that it is not the journey and how you got there but the destination. 4 - 0 on the picks. Add my teaser move to the Over 35 on the Miami game and it was a good day.

    Woodee, I ended up staying away from the KC game because of the scores from last year.
    Again, good call on the Jets Under. I looked at the Jets Under also but couldn't pull the trigger after Buffalo torched them the week before.

    Back again for next week.

  6. #6
    Join Date
    Aug 2000
    Posts
    8,937
    You are killing it on totals and I have been pretty good in the contest playing them too as 90% of my plays are on totals. Lets keep putting our heads together on them and make some money.

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