Over/Under Thread Week 13

[ScooterSteve]

Happy Thanksgiving from North of the Border.

Last week, my picks went 4 wins, 0 loses… but (I know) what have I done lately. Because of the short week, I didn’t want to overlook any of these Thursday games.

I’m not quite ready to ignore (yet) the AFC/NFC Over trend, now 17 Overs to 3 Unders last 6 weeks and 39 – 13 for the year. This week we have 2 matchups, Oak/Dallas (Thurs) and Atlanta/Buffalo (in Toronto) to consider. I will also look into the divisional matchups. Again, I like divisional games because the teams play each other so frequently and trends and stats are usually with current personnel.

Just a few notes on Thursday’s games;

GB@Det: Total opened at 50 and has been bet down to 48.5. Too many conflicting trends here as GB has been Under 6 of last 8 and Detroit has been Over in 5 of their last 6 at home. Last 3 in series have gone Under the total (including a GB win of 22-9 in early October). For me a lean to the Under, may make a teaser bet but probably a no-play for me.

Oak/Dallas: Total opened at 45.5 and has been bet up to 47. Perhaps this move is a result of the AFC/NFC Over trend (now that everyone knows about it). Looking deeper, Under has cashed in 12 of last 18 Oakland games but Over in 4 of last 6 Road games. In last 2 years, Dallas home games have averaged just over 56 points/game and are playing Over in 6 of last 9. Dallas squeaked over the total for me last week on the road and I like them to score some home points to get over that 47.

Pitts/Balt: Opened at 40.5 and has risen slightly to 41. I really think Under is the play here as Pitt is Under 4 of last 6 road games and Balt is Under 5 in last 5 home games. At Pitt this year, the game had 35 points (19-16 Pitt) Also, Pitt has played Under 9 of last 10 vrs AFC and all 5 of last 5 in division. Beware, last 2 Balt home games, in series, have gone Over.

2 Thanksgiving Plays: Oak/Dal Over 47, Pitt/Balt Under 41 (I’ll probably use also in some teasers)
I don’t think either of these will make my Game of the Week pick.
Good Luck, may all your picks be winners.

Be back Sunday with more rambling.

[Dinger]

Very impressive 11-1 in the contest. I don't follow overs/unders too much...but next time in Vegas I will hit you up for some picks.
Great Job...Dinger

[ScooterSteve]

Happy Sunday Gentlemen (and Ladies). Thank you Dinger for the kind words, for some reason the O/U's have good to me.
I decided at last minute to make that Oak/Dallas Over the total my NFL Play of the week. Most of the other games I had looked at appeared too close (at the time) and knowing that I might be too busy on Sunday to fully handicap appropriately, I decided to add it as my Top Play (winner)
The other play on the Under in Pitt/Balt lost by 2 points. So, I am 1 – 1 (I don't include my teaser moves) heading into Sunday.

Firstly, (because of that AFC/NFC Over trend) let’s look at the only other NFC/AFC matchup of Atlanta/Buffalo in Toronto.

Atlanta/Buffalo opened at 46 and now sits at 48.5. Atlanta off that cover (and Under) against the N.O. Saints 10 days ago and the Bills off their bye. Lots of time to prep. Weather not an issue but Dome probably favors Atlanta. Atlanta has played Under 4 of last 5. Bills have played Over 5 of last 7 overall, but Under has cashed 11 of last 14 after a bye and 4 of last 5 versus team with losing record. For me, a no play. I probably side with the opening line and see a 27 – 20 type game. Teaser either way should work.

Lots of Divisional Games remaining to look into including Tenn/Indy, TB/Carolina, , Miami/NYJets, St Louis/S Fran, Denver/KC and NYG/Wash most of whom have already seen each other this year.

Tenn/Indy opened at 44.5 and now sits at 45. I like the OVER here as these two played in Week 11 scoring 57 points. Current trends show Tenn over 4-0-1 in last 5, and 5-0 Over in past 5 Divisional games. Indy is 5 Overs in last 5 Games (admittedly I got lucky in one of those) and 4 - 0 last 4 Home games.

TB/Carolina opened at 41.5 and has not moved. These two played in Week #8 to 44 points (Over the posted 39) Since then, TB has be scoring (and winning) while Carolina’s defense has become top-rated. TB is Under 5 of last 7 Road games, while Carolina is Under 4 of last 4 and 5 of last 6 Home games. 4 of last 6 in Series have gone over but I see an UNDER here.

Quick Notes.
Chic/Minn Total is 50, up from opener 48.Over is 6-0 last 6 Viking Home games and 4-0 last 4 divisional games. Chicago is Over is 6-1, last 7 road games but Under 8-3 last 11 divisional games. These two scored 61 points in Week #2

Miami/NYJets Total opened at 38.5 and now sits at 40.5. First time playing this year, but 4 of last 5 in series has gone Under. Line just about right, probably a tease to play Under 46.5

NYG/Wash Total is 46, down from opening 46.5. Under has cashed in 5 of last 6 in series

My plays this week.

Oak/Dallas over 47 (winner), Pitt/Balt under 40 (loser),TB/Car UNDER 41.5 and Tenn/Indy OVER 45
May all your picks (but especially mine) be winners.

[Krichinsky]

Really like the under (47) for Saints @ Seahawks.
Seahawks rank 2nd in fewest pts. allowed and Saints are 4th.

[ScooterSteve]

Really like the under (47) for Saints @ Seahawks.
Seahawks rank 2nd in fewest pts. allowed and Saints are 4th.

Have to agree with you. I like betting UNDERS on these high profile games where you know the books have enticed the "OVER loving" public to bring back their winnings from Sunday. As I write this, the line has only risen to 48, yet 73% of public money is betting OVER. I see many field goals (OVER 3.5 -105) and a final score of 27 - 16.
Good luck.

[Krichinsky]

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