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  1. #1
    Join Date
    Sep 2006
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    442

    Divisional Over/Unders

    Only 4 games again this week; I love Playoff Football.

    Only one play today, maybe more tomorrow.

    New Orleans/Seattle opened at 48.5 and has dropped all the way to 43.5. Initially I looked at the UNDER also. Two strong defenses, outside stadium and weather all seemed to point that direction. But I got to thinking “Why open so high”? Perhaps a trap line hoping bettors would bite on the UNDER. I cashed on the UNDER last week in New O./Phili game

    New O. is UNDER 5 of last 5 away and 7 of last 8 overall. Seattle is trending similar with playing UNDER last 5 also.

    But this is the playoffs. New O is OVER 3-0-1 Last 4 Divisional playoff games while Seattle is OVER 4-0 last 4 Divisional playoff games and OVER 6-1 last 7 playoff games.
    I am going with the OVER 43.5.
    Have yet to decide if this is my contest pick of the week at 46.5

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Sep 2006
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    442
    For Sunday, I am leaning to the UNDER 41 in the San Fran/Carolina game. No real reasons although they did play a 10-9 game earlier this year. Recent history has these two teams playing over 10 of last 13 and 4 of last 5 in Carolina. I think the number is right and may look into it deeper tomorrow.

    Top Play this week will be the San Diego/Denver UNDER 54. Line opened at 54.5 and has been shifting back and forth since. These two teams played twice this year totaling 48 (in San Diego) and 47 points (in Denver). In those games, San Diego held ball possession 77 minutes to just 43 minutes for Denver I look for more ball control from San Diego again this week to keep Denver off the field. This game will be close. I hope overtime doesn’t ruin my UNDER.

    Pick is San Diego plus points and UNDER the 54.

  3. #3
    Join Date
    Nov 2005
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    4,421
    Some trends,
    - Denver is on a 49-22-1 run over the total, plus 36-18-1 over against the AFC.
    - The over is 27-12 in the Patriots last 39 home games.
    - Panthers 11-4-1 season under the total
    - Seahawks are 27-10 ATS against the NFC and 37-17-1 ATS in their last 55 home games

  4. #4
    Join Date
    Nov 2005
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    4,421
    Both SD/DEN matchups this year went UN the total at 47 and 48.
    BTW, the weather in Seattle is likely to be pretty nasty. I'm on the central Oregon coast and we are getting hammered with sustained winds in the 30'-40's and gusts up around 75mph with lots of rain. This storm, which started yesterday afternoon here, is headed that way.

  5. #5
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
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    2,039
    Was it week 15? where there was bad weather and the overs still dominated?
    I think 11-5 for the overs. Anyway, I think the way offenses operate today
    and how easy pass interference calls are made the weather conditions seem to
    be less of a factor in the totals.
    So....I really, really like the under in the SD@Den game. I was so confident in
    this play that I took it early at Under 52.5 @ +120.
    I also think the over is a strong play tonight with Indy @ N.E.
    Indy has some players banged up on D, but they don't seem to worry if
    behind early in games. New England may be the worse team left in the
    playoffs. Just MHO.
    Steve/dragon great stuff. You're on a roll, keep it going.

  6. #6
    Join Date
    Nov 2005
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    4,421
    I'm not sure Week 15 had any 30mph sustained winds with heavy rain.....maybe gusts that high. There was torrential rain in Carolina and some wind and snow other places, but nothing like Seattle has been getting. It looks like they've caught a little break now watching the pre-game show but I think it will be short-lived. But you're right....bad weather doesn't necessarily = low scoring.

  7. #7
    Join Date
    Sep 2006
    Posts
    442
    Interesting to see the total rise back to 44.5 just before kickoff.
    When I handicap, I typically don't factor in rain and snow but high winds are a different matter.
    Good luck to all.

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