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Happy Championship Sunday!
With only two games on the board, it becomes a lot harder to find opportunities because the line makers need to be so sharp. That being said, I believe the lines are set to encourage play from the betting “public” who may have limited statistical information and may be betting more with their heart than their head.
Many times this year, my top over/underplays were played against the line movement. Sometimes you miss the movement by wagering late, but you do get to see the movements (especially public vs. sharp). Although I start my weekly handicapping on recent trends, my approach will alter a bit this week.
New E. @ Denver: Line opened at 54.5 and hit 57.5 before dropping to current 56.5. There is no doubt that both teams can score and have scored plenty against each other (last 4 in series OVER the total). Denver averaged 37.9 points this season and New E. averaged 27.8. I had the Denver/SD game UNDER last week (winner) and I am going with the UNDER again this week.
I look for a more controlled time clock management game today to buck the OVER trend. New England has shifted their offensive attack to more rushing but Denver is ranked 12th overall against the rush. Like I said last week, the best defense against Denver is to keep them off the field (much as S.D did last week; just S.D couldn’t move the ball in the first ¾ of the game). Watching Manning last week, he almost always works the play clock to less than 5 seconds with all his defense reading and pre-snap theatrics. I don’t think either of these quarterbacks are going to heave the long bomb. It is hard to handicap turnovers but in the last game these two played, Denver scored their first 17 points off of 3 fumbles in the first quarter (I think in opening 5 minutes) Nov 24. If this doesn’t happen again, the UNDER should hit.
S.F. @ Seattle: Line opened at 40, dropped to 38.5 and now back to 40. Strong trends here would point to the UNDER. 4 of last 5 in series have gone UNDER, Under has been cash in Seattle’s last 4 division games and last 6 Conference games. Seattle gives up the fewest points per game at 14.4 while San Francisco permits 17 points a game. On offense Seattle averaged 26.1 points a game and San F. averaged slightly less at 25.4.
Again, I am bucking the UNDER trend here and leaning to the OVER. Seattle is 16 – 1 at home last 2 years. With this much hyped (and confirmed) 12th man, this game will be tight but I see Seattle jumping up, scoring early, then San.F scrambling more to catch up (perhaps successfully with points coming on offense or turnovers for 1 or 2 pick 6’s).
Predictions;Denver 27 New E. 23 UNDER 56.5
San F. 20 Seattle27 OVER 40
With only two games on the board, it becomes a lot harder to find opportunities because the line makers need to be so sharp. That being said, I believe the lines are set to encourage play from the betting “public” who may have limited statistical information and may be betting more with their heart than their head.
Many times this year, my top over/underplays were played against the line movement. Sometimes you miss the movement by wagering late, but you do get to see the movements (especially public vs. sharp). Although I start my weekly handicapping on recent trends, my approach will alter a bit this week.
New E. @ Denver: Line opened at 54.5 and hit 57.5 before dropping to current 56.5. There is no doubt that both teams can score and have scored plenty against each other (last 4 in series OVER the total). Denver averaged 37.9 points this season and New E. averaged 27.8. I had the Denver/SD game UNDER last week (winner) and I am going with the UNDER again this week.
I look for a more controlled time clock management game today to buck the OVER trend. New England has shifted their offensive attack to more rushing but Denver is ranked 12th overall against the rush. Like I said last week, the best defense against Denver is to keep them off the field (much as S.D did last week; just S.D couldn’t move the ball in the first ¾ of the game). Watching Manning last week, he almost always works the play clock to less than 5 seconds with all his defense reading and pre-snap theatrics. I don’t think either of these quarterbacks are going to heave the long bomb. It is hard to handicap turnovers but in the last game these two played, Denver scored their first 17 points off of 3 fumbles in the first quarter (I think in opening 5 minutes) Nov 24. If this doesn’t happen again, the UNDER should hit.
S.F. @ Seattle: Line opened at 40, dropped to 38.5 and now back to 40. Strong trends here would point to the UNDER. 4 of last 5 in series have gone UNDER, Under has been cash in Seattle’s last 4 division games and last 6 Conference games. Seattle gives up the fewest points per game at 14.4 while San Francisco permits 17 points a game. On offense Seattle averaged 26.1 points a game and San F. averaged slightly less at 25.4.
Again, I am bucking the UNDER trend here and leaning to the OVER. Seattle is 16 – 1 at home last 2 years. With this much hyped (and confirmed) 12th man, this game will be tight but I see Seattle jumping up, scoring early, then San.F scrambling more to catch up (perhaps successfully with points coming on offense or turnovers for 1 or 2 pick 6’s).
Predictions;Denver 27 New E. 23 UNDER 56.5
San F. 20 Seattle27 OVER 40
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