Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

DINGERS NFL Super Bowl Pick

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • DINGERS NFL Super Bowl Pick

    Last Week 2-0

    Top Pick in Playoffs: 3-0

    Playoffs Overall 5-5


    Super Bowl: 1* System has Denver -2.5...take the Broncos +1.

    However, I will be rooting for Seattle and the refs to call a good game.

  • #2
    ... +1? You must have been F5'ing through the game clock expiring to get that.

    Line opened at pk and got bet up to -2.5 in minutes and is still at that number now.

    good luck. Too early for me. I want to see what the weather will be doing. Giants stadium can have bad wind gusts and of course could rain/sleet/snow.

    Comment


    • #3
      I opened the Bettorsworld odds link last night. It still states Seattle opened as a 1 point favorite.

      I looked right after the Sea-49er game last night.

      I do see the line movement to Den -2.5...that switches the pick to Seattle, as it has the tie-breaker.

      Comment


      • #4
        In the Super Bowl, ask yourself- is Seattle's defense more likely to stop Denver's offense or is Denver's (inconsistent and minus their best defensive player) defense likely to be able to stop Seattle's offense?

        If Denver is really as powerful as the media makes them out to be, they should be a decent favorite in this game. Check out the opening number. This is not the regular season and you can only go by what you've seen there so much. Hell, with nowhere near the level of receivers that San Francisco has, New England was almost able to give Denver a game.

        If Seattle can stop San Francisco, they will most certainly stop Denver (IMO). They will actually be capable of bringing the level of pressure that Peyton will have trouble overcoming.

        Comment


        • #5
          Eyeball test for me the last 30 days I see zero way Denver beats Seattle. IMO just letting others see so they can let me have it when I
          lose but again see know way.

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by guy View Post
            In the Super Bowl, ask yourself- is Seattle's defense more likely to stop Denver's offense or is Denver's (inconsistent and minus their best defensive player) defense likely to be able to stop Seattle's offense?

            If Denver is really as powerful as the media makes them out to be, they should be a decent favorite in this game. Check out the opening number. This is not the regular season and you can only go by what you've seen there so much. Hell, with nowhere near the level of receivers that San Francisco has, New England was almost able to give Denver a game.

            If Seattle can stop San Francisco, they will most certainly stop Denver (IMO). They will actually be capable of bringing the level of pressure that Peyton will have trouble overcoming.
            New England was almost able to give Denver a game? Hmmm.....320 yds to 507, 19 FD's to 27, 5.7 yds per play vs 7.1, 24 min TOP to nearly 36. NE scored a TD with 3 min left and was lucky to get within 10. Den was up 23-3 until midway into the 4th Q. NE was handily out-played in that game and was never, ever in it.

            Comment


            • #7
              I'm still back and forth on this game. Denver run D is actually good and their D overall has been playing better the last few games. Seattle's strength is their run and they've played several of the top defenses the last couple games which perhaps is why they have looked less than explosive and that o-line has looked more like paper than it should (though it's not good right now).

              The initial thought for me was denver but my gut and the more I think about it swings seattle. I really want to see the weather.
              And yeah, apparently it did open at seattle -1 but it swung up to pk then -2 then 2.5 within 20 minutes with the book I use.

              Also, the LVH had this as a matchup all year and all year had the line at pk. So, opening at -1 or pk is not surprising and the -2.5 denver is likely the strong public action.

              Comment


              • #8
                I was under the impression that the immediate action/line moves was mostly sharp action. I'm not sure there's enough public money the first day to moves lines that far, but maybe I'm wrong.
                An observation though....Wilson needs to learn how to take off running FORWARDS like Kaepernick does instead of running backwards 20 yds trying to evade the rush.
                I think Seattle's secondary can be had for a few big plays with Denver's large receivers D. Thomas, J. Thomas and Decker who are way bigger than S.F's. The only reason S.F. was ever in it is because of Kaepernick's running ability. Seattle hasn't seen anything like Denver's passing attack all year, which could also create a little room for Moreno.
                Likewise, Denver probably hasn't seen a bruising RB and great OL combo like Seattle's this year either. I think it's a close game that could go either way and I definitely like a 7 pt teaser w/ either side and OV 41 as for now anyway.

                Comment


                • #9
                  My gut feeling is the NFC is the dominant Conference and Denver is the best of a very weak conference. There stats may be padded playing a weak AFC schedule plus they played a very weak NFC East. The Seahawks played very tough 49ers (3 times), tough Cards defense twice, Panthers, Saints. Denver soft schedule versus Seahawks tough schedule...I'm predicting Sea 31 Den 17

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Considering Denver has scored less than 20 pts just once in the Manning era, a 36 game span, I would be extremely surprised if Denver scored less than even 24 absolute minimum. Look at the teams Seattle has faced this year and show me one that has the QB/WR combo that Denver has......and I'm a Seattle fan. Sherman can only cover one guy. You've got D. Thomas 6'3", Eric Decker 6'3", Julius Thomas 6'5" and Welker running around between everyone, a quartet that had 317 receptions and 47 TD's combined.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      BTW, 47 TD's between those 4 are 2 more than the entire Seattle offense scored this year.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Denver's receivers may be big but I don't think they are tough enough to get open against Seattle's suffocating coverage. And Manning can't move like Kap.

                        And despite recent good stats, Denver's D has been exposed in some past games. They are not very good and certainly hurting without Chris Harris and Von Miller.

                        Seattle gets Harvin back.

                        I like Seattle if I can get +3 and under 47.5, but it's still Peyton Manning, so I think Seattle +10 and under 54 is the play on a 7 point teaser. Line is up to 3 at Bovada, but holding at 2 or 2.5 most places. Total at 47 or 47.5.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Oh, I'm with you on Denver's D.....I def think Seattle will be able to move and score.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            ....which is why I prefer the OV 40 on a teaser.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Does it count for anything that Seattle beat Denver in the pre-season 40-10? It's not like Seattle is going to be totally unfamiliar with Denver. I know that was pre-season but they will know that they have to keep the game in front of them to win and with pressure on Manning they will be able to do just that (IMO).

                              Comment

                              Working...
                              X