July Baseball-Post your daily top plays here!

[dragon1952]

Yanks -1.5 @-115

[woodee12]

0-1 for me. Brewers give up big innings late. Only thing I like about that loss is the cards could gain some ground!

Liked your Baltimore play dragon and jumped on that too. Hopefully we can get a walk off win here late tied at 6!

[dragon1952]

yeah baby....walk-off hom-ah

[dragon1952]

Freakin' Yankees go into the bottom of the 9th up 3 and all I need to do is win by 2. Closer Dave Robertson had only given up a total of 2 runs over his last 20 save opportunities......2 runs in 20 outings....and he gives up 2 in 1 inning.

[dragon1952]

...and then there's the Padres.....I should have smelled a rat when the Pads were actually the favorite. Basically a glorified Triple A team who is last in the N.L. in batting avg (.218!!! ha ha), runs, hits, RBI, OBS, slugging pct. and 28th out of 30 in HR. But as usual they are near the top in pitching. Management seems to be content in emphasizing pitching...which they have for years.....trading all of their good offensive prospects for pitching.....and finishing 20 games under .500. I lived there for over 20 yrs so I know and have been burned so many times by these 3-1 types of games. I'll never learn.

[woodee12]

That Padres-Cards game was a traop if I ever saw one. I played the Pads late actually just due to the weird line.

Cards could have ran away with it a few times but cannot get a break or a big hit!

[woodee12]

53-49
+224

The only thing worse than losing a play is not getting a play in. Was going to be all over the Brewers again today vs. Price. Winning 3-0 now but it was a 11 EST start and missed it. My top play I had circled for the day for sure. ARRGGH!!!

other play:

Giants -116 over Pirates---Hate bad losing streak teams but think the Giants snap out of it today with Timmy.

[dragon1952]

woodee12...do you ever look at the home plate umpire stats?I copied these from another site.

Umps listed with their 2014 and 2013 records for home-road team wins and over-unders. Additional ump trends in italics.

Lines from 5dimes

Day games

951 Philadelphia Phillies +146 Over 7 -115
952 New York Mets -156 Under 7 -105
Jerry Meals 2014: 9-9, 12-5 o/u (2013: 19-14, 18-12 o/u)
Over is 19-7-2 in Meals' last 28 games behind home plate.
Over is 16-5 in Meals' last 21 Phillies games behind home plate.
Phillies are 16-5 in their last 21 games with Meals behind home plate.
Mets are 3-9 in their last 12 games with Meals behind home plate.

979 Milwaukee Brewers +181 Over 7 +105
980 Tampa Bay Rays -191 Under 7 -125
John Tumpane 2014: 13-8, 9-8 o/u (2013: 9-7, 9-7 o/u)
Home team is 7-3 in Tumpanes last 10 interleague games behind home plate.
Home team is 5-0 in Tumpanes last 5 Brewers games behind home plate.

953 Arizona Diamondbacks +103 Over 7 -105
954 Cincinnati Reds -113 Under 7 -115
Eric Cooper 2014: 9-9, 9-8 o/u (2013: 20-13, 10-20 o/u)
Home team is 4-1 in Coopers last 5 games behind home plate.
Road team is 6-2 in Coopers last 8 Reds games behind home plate.
Reds are 1-11 in their last 12 games with Cooper behind home plate.
Under is 5-0 in Coopers last 5 games behind home plate.

955 Washington Nationals -152 Over 7½ -115
956 Miami Marlins +142 Under 7½ -105
Ben May 2014: no record
*If they skip the rookie, which they sometimes do, it'll probably be Jeff Kellogg 2014: 9-9, 8-10 o/u.

965 Oakland Athletics -150 Over 8 -105
966 Houston Astros +140 Under 8 -115
Jeff Kellogg 2014: 9-11, 5-10 o/u (2013: 14-15, 17-12 o/u)
Under is 6-0-2 in Blasers last 8 games behind home plate.

957 Pittsburgh Pirates +108 Over 7½ +105
958 San Francisco Giants -118 Under 7½ -125
Fieldin Culbreth 2014: 11-8, 9-10 o/u (2013: 19-14, 11-18 o/u)
Under is 48-22-4 in Culbreths last 74 games behind home plate.
Under is 5-1-1 in Culbreths last 7 Giants games behind home plate.
Night games

967 Chicago White Sox +220 Over 8½ +100
968 Detroit Tigers -240 Under 8½ -120
Tim Timmons 2014: 8-11, 9-9 o/u (2013: 13-20, 22-10 o/u)
Road team is 23-11 in Timmons' last 34 games behind home plate.
Tigers are 5-1 in their last 6 games with Timmons behind home plate.

969 Seattle Mariners -112 Over 6½ -105
970 Cleveland Indians +102 Under 6½ -115
Victor Carapazza 2014: 14-8, 8-14 o/u (2013: 15-19, 17-14 o/u)
Mariners are 2-5 in their last 7 games with Carapazza behind home plate.
Indians are 1-5 in their last 6 games with Carapazza behind home plate.

971 Los Angeles Angels -133 Over 8½ +105
972 Baltimore Orioles +123 Under 8½ -125
Kerwin Danley 2014: 9-10, 3-15 o/u (2013: 17-12, 6-22 o/u)
Under is 45-10-2 in Danleys last 57 games behind home plate.
Road team is 7-2 in Danleys last 9 games behind home plate.
Angels are 19-7 in their last 26 games with Danley behind home plate.
Orioles are 7-20 in their last 27 games with Danley behind home plate.

973 Toronto Blue Jays +137 Over 8
974 Boston Red Sox -149 Over 8
Mark Wegner 2014: 7-11, 9-8 o/u (2013: 18-18, 18-17 o/u)
Road team is 6-1 in Wegners last 7 games behind home plate.
Road team is 5-1 in Wegners last 6 Red Sox games behind home plate.
Blue Jays are 1-4 in their last 5 games with Wegner behind home plate.

959 Colorado Rockies +104
960 Chicago Cubs -114
Will Little 2014: 11-10, 10-11 o/u (2013: 11-2, 8-5 o/u)
Under is 7-2 in Littles last 9 games behind home plate.

975 New York Yankees -141 Over 9 -105
976 Texas Rangers +131 Under 9 -115
Ed Hickox 2014: 6-11, 5-11 o/u (2013: 16-10, 16-9 o/u)
Road team is 5-1 in Hickoxs last 6 games behind home plate.
Under is 5-1 in Hickoxs last 6 games behind home plate.
Under is 7-2-1 in Hickoxs last 10 Rangers games behind home plate.

977 Minnesota Twins +130 Over 7½ +105
978 Kansas City Royals -140 Under 7½ -125
Paul Schrieber 2014: 10-11, 10-9 o/u (2013: 22-13, 11-19 o/u)
Royals are 5-17 in their last 22 games with Schrieber behind home plate.
Twins are 0-6 in their last 6 games with Schrieber behind home plate.

961 Atlanta Braves +169 Over 6½ -115
962 Los Angeles Dodgers -179 Under 6½ -105
Hunter Wendelstedt 2014: 8-8, 7-7 o/u (2013: 21-15, 19-17 o/u)
Dodgers are 4-1 in their last 5 games with Wendelstedt behind home plate.

963 St. Louis Cardinals +100 Over 6½ -110
964 San Diego Padres -110 Under 6½ -110
David Rackley 2014: 14-4, 7-9 o/u (2013: 9-3, 5-5 o/u)
Home team is 26-7 in Rackleys last 33 games behind home plate.
Home team is 4-1 in Rackleys last 5 Cardinals games behind home plate.

Using the UN umps selectively can yield pretty good win pcts.

Sea/Cle UN6.5
LAA/Bal UN8
NYY/Tex UN9
STL/SD UN6.5 (not necessarily an UN ump but Pads don't score much themselves plus they have a decent pitcher going)
LAA -133
NYY -135

[woodee12]

54-49
+324

win on Giants yesterday.

Thursday--

Seattle +115

Parlay--
Pads +1.5/ Angels +1.5 ----+132 on parlay odds.

[woodee12]

No, I don;t really look at umps too much but follow a couple guys who do. Its interesting to see the stats I know but I can't see it factoring in too much unless you really stick to the system which I find it hard to do with limited time.

[dragon1952]

3-3 for me but I bet more on the system unders and all 3 hit.

THURSDAY
Day games

913 Chicago White Sox +175 Over 9 +100
914 Detroit Tigers -185 Under 9 -120
Tim Welke 2014: 10-11, 8-13 o/u (2013: 14-20, 16-16 o/u)
Tigers are 4-0 in their last 4 games with Welke behind home plate.
White Sox are 5-2 in their last 7 games with Welke behind home plate.

901 Colorado Rockies +170 Over 8 -115
902 Chicago Cubs -180 Under 8 -105
Gerry Davis 2014: 16-3, 7-10 o/u (2013: 20-13, 12-20 o/u)
Home team is 37-16 in Davis' last 53 games behind home plate.
Rockies are 1-4 in their last 5 games with Davis behind home plate.

903 St. Louis Cardinals -102 Over 7½ -105
904 San Diego Padres -108 Under 7½ -115
Brian Gorman 2014: 8-10, 9-9 o/u (2013: 13-7, 8-11 o/u)
Home team is 14-5 in Gormans last 19 Padres games behind home plate.
Padres are 18-8 in their last 26 games with Gorman behind home plate.
Night games

905 Philadelphia Phillies +149 Over 7 -115
906 Washington Nationals -159 Under 7 -105
Umpire information not available. Will update.

915 Los Angeles Angels -115 Over 9 +100
916 Baltimore Orioles +105 Under 9 -120
Mark Ripperger 2014: 12-9, 10-9 o/u (2013: 1-2, 2-1 o/u)
Over is 4-1-1 in Rippergers last 6 games behind home plate.

917 Seattle Mariners +123 Over 8½ -105
918 Cleveland Indians -133 Under 8½ -115
Gabe Morales 2014: 13-11, 14-8 o/u (2013: no record)
Over is 8-2 in Morales' last 10 games behind home plate.

907 Cincinnati Reds -119 Over 6½ -105
908 Miami Marlins +109 Under 6½ -115
Umpire information not available. Will update.

919 Minnesota Twins +180 Over 7½ -115
920 Kansas City Royals -190 Under 7½ -105
Adam Hamari 2014: 6-13, 8-9 o/u (2013: 7-4, 5-6 o/u)
Road team is 11-1 in Hamaris last 12 games behind home plate.

921 Toronto Blue Jays -124 Over 8½ -110
922 Houston Astros +114 Under 8½ -110
Umpire information not available. Will update.

909 Pittsburgh Pirates -113 Over 8½ -120
910 Arizona Diamondbacks +103 Under 8½ +100
Umpire information not available. Will update.

911 Atlanta Braves +190 Over 6 +110
912 Los Angeles Dodgers -210 Under 6 -130
Mike DiMuro 2014: 4-15, 8-7 o/u (2013: 18-15, 16-14 o/u)
Road team is 17-5 in DiMuros last 22 games behind home plate.
Braves are 4-1 in their last 5 games with DiMuro behind home plate.
Dodgers are 0-5 in their last 5 games with DiMuro behind home plate.


The only system UN play was CWS/Det which looks like an OV at 4-4 in the 6th. I got up late and took
UN 11.5 in-game so hopefully things slow down.
Some interesting stats,
HP ump in Col/Chi is 16-3 for the home team.
HP ump in Stl/SD favors Pads per stats
HP ump in Min/KC favors road team big-time
HP ump in Atl/LAD favors road, Braves and intensely dislikes LA .... ha ha

[dragon1952]

Took Cubs -1.5 based on huge HP umpire lean to home team as well as huge pitching advantage to Cubs. 0-0 in the 5th so far.

Later plays
SD +104 - the Pads seem to have the Card's number, plus HP ump bias and starting pitcher advantage

[dragon1952]

Phi +1.5 -135 - OV/UN is a low 7, neither team hits LHP well, both pitchers held the other team to 1 run over 7 inn. last meetings.
Bal -106 - The Orioles have been just as hot as the Angels.And...."Norris is 4-2 in seven starts at Camden Yards and is even more stellar against the Angels, going 4-0 lifetime with a 0.52 ERA in five starts"
Sea +118 - don't understand this at all. McAllister has lost his last six decisions and Young is going for his 10th win.
Mia +101 - Another funny one. I know Cueto is good but the 4 runs Cincy scored last game was the most in their last 12 games over which they've averaged 2 runs per game. Miami is about the hottest team around lately.
Ari +104 - Collmenter is 5-2 with a 2.89 ERA his last 10 home starts, including 3-0 his last 4 there allowing just 3 runs over 20 innings.

In four lifetime starts against the Pirates, his ERA is 1.59.

[dragon1952]

4-3 (plus hit my in-game UN on CWS/DET) but 2 really tough losses with Bal losing 1-0 in extra inns. and Miami getting screwed by umpires.
Cubs -1.5 - Winner
SD +104 - Loser
Phi +1.5 -135 - Winner - Phils win SU
Bal -106 - Loser - Bal loses 1-0 in 13 innings---ouch
Sea +118 - Winner
Mia +101 - Loser (with some help from the umps. If you didn't hear what happened you need to Google it) :^ /
Ari +104 - Winner

[dragon1952]

Friday -

Phi +1.5 @+105 - taking Philly on the run line again getting 1.5 runs with good odds
Tex +1.5 @-120 - line is attractive for this match-up
Col +1.5 @+110 - Tigers in a little slump so I'll take 1.5 runs
Mia -112 - they should be breathing fire after last night
Tor -112 - kind of a funny one. Probably a trap. HP ump favors road team 5-11 and better pitching for Tor
Ari +113 - Ari on a small roll