Any notice the crazy line movement yesterday?

[Taxman]

I am in Vegas this week. We were at the Bally's sportsbook yesterday.

Yesterday morning and yesterday afternoon had 2 real crazy line movements and the public got buried!

Detroit was -1.5 a hour before kickoff and dropped to -1 30 minutes before kickoff. 5 minutes before kickoff, the Jets were favored by 1.5.

San Francisco was -5.5 on the parlay cards, line was -5. During the afternoon, the line was actually bet down to -3.5 after 30 minutes before kickoff. It closed at -4.

Atlanta was -2.5 on the parlay cards. Saturday night the line went from -3 to -4. During the early afternoon games the spread went from -4 to -5 to -6! I had to jump on that, way too much money coming in on one side. Plus, the typical public perception of Atlanta's last game and destroying Tampa helped drive up that line. I think I was the only one in the book that had Minnesota. It was very quiet when Minnesota would score.

Needless to say I took SF and Minnesota as a parlay off the board.


I have learned over the years, if the public is very heavy on one side, you have to go opposite. Fortunately for me, it paid off.

It will be interesting to see how next week's NFL lines open up with GB thrashing the Bears and the Cowboys pounds the Saints. Also throw in the meager showing of the Skins against the Giants.

[widestrides]

Thing is, those late moves were more likely big sharp bettors, except for maybe Atlanta. Public doesn't move lines late like that, but sharps and syndicates come in late. I don't think the Public can't move lines all by themselves. It would take a lot of Public money to move a line.

I looked at a lot of line movement over the years and it's not much of a tell. Something like only 52% of the time it pays to follow it.

[Krichinsky]

I had a friend who was in LV as well. He had a six team parlay. Covered the first 5 games
and his 6th game was Phili @ +5.5. Parlays very rarely go this well, so I kept waiting for
a Foles pick 6 the last two times the Eagles had the ball. Glad it didn't happen.
It's an unbelievable feeling when you hit like that.

As a thank you, for added advice, the K-man will be treated to a nice steak dinner!

[Cookie Monster]

San Francisco was -5.5 on the parlay cards, line was -5. During the afternoon, the line was actually bet down to -3.5 after 30 minutes before kickoff. It closed at -4.

Atlanta was -2.5 on the parlay cards. Saturday night the line went from -3 to -4. During the early afternoon games the spread went from -4 to -5 to -6! I had to jump on that, way too much money coming in on one side. Plus, the typical public perception of Atlanta's last game and destroying Tampa helped drive up that line. I think I was the only one in the book that had Minnesota. It was very quiet when Minnesota would score.

Needless to say I took SF and Minnesota as a parlay off the board.


I have learned over the years, if the public is very heavy on one side, you have to go opposite. Fortunately for me, it paid off.

It will be interesting to see how next week's NFL lines open up with GB thrashing the Bears and the Cowboys pounds the Saints. Also throw in the meager showing of the Skins against the Giants.

Very well played. Public got buried on ATL, seemingly obviously "square money" continuing to pour in throughout the drastic line movement. Philly was dreadful, staying at 4, 4.5 for long enough to suck a bunch of people in to a .5 or 1 point loss which one does not expect off of the dead number of -5. I believe the public OK on Green bay though but nowhere close to even out the beating they took on ATL.

Try to stay out of the Clark County Jail. No Dine-and-Dashes out of the Buffet.

[Cookie Monster]

I looked at a lot of line movement over the years and it's not much of a tell. Something like only 52% of the time it pays to follow it.

Unfortunately, yes. Which is extremely aggravating because it seems like it should work better.

[resteasy]

Wish i had seen it. Been away all last week. Was flying all yesterday missing the games which sucks. That would be helpful info. Thanks for posting it and good luck in vegas!

[hart attack]

Can't imagine why anyone would have bet Atlanta......long week of prep playing a team with a rookie QB making his 1st start that just happens to be missing its clear MVP stud RB & at best was supposed to win 5-6 games. I guess I am a "square" cuz I had them everywhere.

I'm the only degenerate gambler that can go 3-1 in college, 7-2 in NFL, and end up only +1.5 units. FIVE parlays all had Atl as the only loss (including a 7 teamer). ND was the pick Saturday & Atl Sunday. I bet Atl beats them by 20 in Atl....just so sick.

[Cookie Monster]

Can't imagine why anyone would have bet Atlanta......long week of prep playing a team with a rookie QB making his 1st start that just happens to be missing its clear MVP stud RB & at best was supposed to win 5-6 games. I guess I am a "square" cuz I had them everywhere.

I'm the only degenerate gambler that can go 3-1 in college, 7-2 in NFL, and end up only +1.5 units. FIVE parlays all had Atl as the only loss (including a 7 teamer). ND was the pick Saturday & Atl Sunday. I bet Atl beats them by 20 in Atl....just so sick.

Sick and frustrating but....and I think you know this.....you have to accept the day as a "positive" in that while parlays are square bet which expect a series of events to play out as expected (inherently unlikely due to simple Laws of Probability) to get shot down by just ATL with one being a 7 teamer you're process/thought to arriving at plays is working in a higher % of instances than is true of most others.

If I do a parlay very rarely does it not include Moneylines which I did have one yesterday with a 12-team (mostly Moneylines) College/NFL parlay that even had 3 MLB games (Seattle, DET & STL, MLB Closing Day) only to lose with the Steelers managing to find a way not get that needed just one final 1st down to run out the clock vs. a team that had surrendered 56 points the week before so gave the ball back to them with under a minute to go Tampa with no time outs, Mike friggin GLENNON fer chrissakes 41 yd. pass play right down the middle of the damn field then.....your avatar suggests that you know what happened.

And it does happen. Especially on parlays. Parlay player has to accept that a miss by one game is no different than a miss by 2 or more games unless you can forget it completely, move forward and do not "mortgage" yourself on any single play as you did here unless you had bet, like, 18 or more parlays or some such thing.

ATL (or any one team) should NEVER have been allowed on to that many tickets, absolutely no way. It could only have gotten there by being what I call a "LOVE PLAY" (game that feels too easy....sure winner) which I treat as a total red flag. Worse case here you're guilty of poor parlay discipline not poor capping so forget about it and win next week by, firstly, not mortgaging yourself on a play.

[resteasy]

Sick and frustrating but....and I think you know this.....you have to accept the day as a "positive" in that while parlays are square bet which expect a series of events to play out as expected (inherently unlikely due to simple Laws of Probability) to get shot down by just ATL with one being a 7 teamer you're process/thought to arriving at plays is working in a higher % of instances than is true of most others.

If I do a parlay very rarely does it not include Moneylines which I did have one yesterday with a 12-team (mostly Moneylines) College/NFL parlay that even had 3 MLB games (Seattle, DET & STL, MLB Closing Day) only to lose with the Steelers managing to find a way not get that needed just one final 1st down to run out the clock vs. a team that had surrendered 56 points the week before so gave the ball back to them with under a minute to go Tampa with no time outs, Mike friggin GLENNON fer chrissakes 41 yd. pass play right down the middle of the damn field then.....your avatar suggests that you know what happened.

And it does happen. Especially on parlays. Parlay player has to accept that a miss by one game is no different than a miss by 2 or more games unless you can forget it completely, move forward and do not "mortgage" yourself on any single play as you did here unless you had bet, like, 18 or more parlays or some such thing.

ATL (or any one team) should NEVER have been allowed on to that many tickets, absolutely no way. It could only have gotten there by being what I call a "LOVE PLAY" (game that feels too easy....sure winner) which I treat as a total red flag. Worse case here you're guilty of poor parlay discipline not poor capping so forget about it and win next week by, firstly, not mortgaging yourself on a play.

exactly. The love play thing is what I look out for too. I don't do many parlays but if I do more than 1 I despise having one play linking them all. Same goes for teasers. If I catch myself wanting to do that then the red flags are up.

[Boone Moone]

Very nice thread here guys. I myself was in Vegas from Saturday to Saturday, but just missed you Taxman, as I do most of my playing at Bally's and Harrah's as well. Loaded up on the 49er's, and did very well, but the only place they lost was right here on the NFL Contest, as the spread was 5.5 !! That sucked.
Had a great streak of luck though, and although I was out there looking at houses, it made me stay in town an extra 3 or 4 days......Was gonna hang around for Sunday, but hey, a guy's gotta get some sleep sooner or later !!! As for this week, I'm all over the Colts and Broncos. Good Luck Fellas.

[Krichinsky]

What was it about this past weekend?
Boone if you head that way keep us updated.
Might end up having a BW party house or start our own annual get together.

Certain games stick out each year and Phili @ SF will be one of those.

Just wish SF had shown as much grit when they flopped in their home debut against Chicago.

[Boone Moone]

I'm up there about once every 2 or 3 weeks when it's not tax season "K-Man", since it's only about a 3 1/2 hour drive from where I live near Los Angeles....I only work from January to April every year, with scattered appointments all throughout the year, so why not ? I'm looking to move out there for good next spring, because you get so much more for your money out there compared to California.....And it's not like I'm a gambling fiend, because all I play is horses and sports. I just love the fresh air, the action, and of course, "the scenery", if you know what I mean. I've remained in L.A all my life to be close to family, but with the passing of my mother and brother earlier this year, it's time to go.
Once I settle in, we'll find a way to do it up good !! Keep in touch.....Good luck this week !!

[dragon1952]

Speaking of line moves, Oregon/Arizona total opened at 74.5 and was bet up to 82.5 at one point. As hard as it is to do I had to go UN 82.5. 51-31 and I still win :^ )