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Mock Hilton Standings thru week # 8

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  • #16
    collywobbles,

    I hear you on some of that, but you are wrong that late money is square money. True, the sharps will pound a bad line early on Sunday night or Monday, but they often will try to gradually push the line with small amounts of money one way all week long and then pound it the other way on Sunday or even near kickoff.

    True, you should never be scared off your solid play because the line is moving against you, but you are going to be playing a contest line with less value than what you could get in the real world. That is a mathematical fact. Best way to handle that is to go ahead and play the bad line in the contest, but also put a little cash on the better line.

    I've looked at line moves going back 5-6 years and it is correct only 52% of the time, but that is when you have to bet the new line after the move. In a contest with a line fixed from Wednesday, and even with a deadline of Saturday Noon or Saturday midnight, that % would be closer to 55%. That's worth playing EVERY single one of them, but yes, you should still choose your spots and not get scared off your solid plays.

    There are more and more Sharps and Betting Syndicates out there influencing lines with solid insider information and computer programs and every stat in the book than ever before. So I would say line movement is more accurate than ever. But we are still probably only talking 53%, and there will still be some strong public favorites or square money that will be enough to push some lines, but the increasing amount of sharps and syndicates and their much larger bankrolls should keep those square line moves in check. Line moves caused by squares should be easy to identify. Almost always favorites and the teams that played great last week and of course the favorite teams like Dallas, Denver, etc. Or just check one of those sites that tracks the Public %.

    This all results in a much sharper lines. My takeaway from that is to play more teasers as the chance that both sides will cover if given 6.5 more points is becoming greater and greater. But not teaser totals. Totals are not nearly as sharp and both over and under do not win at the same high % that both sides do with 6.5 extra points.

    GL!

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    • #17
      Yes, definitely I'll need to sharpen up on being able to identify Line Moves as result of sharp money and Joe Public. Being this is my first NFL contest of this type this is literally the very first time within a long NFL betting lifetime that I've been faced with disparities in lines as we see on occasion in The Mock.

      I'll start this week, watching the lines throughout to see what its like and your input on focus upon the "favorites and the teams that played great last week and of course the favorite teams like Dallas, Denver" in regards to LATE line moves is helpful....to spot dumb money driving a line move.

      I certainly grasp that Whales seek to move a line and wish, of course, I had their computer programs that establish a proper line to compare against wherein laying lumber to nudge a line to a place where its enough off their line to hammer was my everyday waking reality....

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