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**collywobbles** · 12-21-2014, 02:35 AM

Great Stuff.

You've been here from the start, basically. When The Shrink still roamed The Earth & war was in The Garden. Where have you been? I ain't seen you around. 1st time I've seen you.

Heres a gift for you:

Its kinda dirty. Sorry. And the real one wherever it is ain't as big as in the picture.

Best Case at this point, and what the universe should cause to happen (for my own entertainment, if nothing else) would be Bears Defense takes the reigns, refusing to go out shamed looking like they just really don't care that much (the shade that Cutler has painted the canvas that is this year's Bears in) and stifle DET to get the cover & for CLE to topple CAR.

3rd such massive Stale line this year. Widestrides will tell you. 4 pt. Stale MIN+2.5 from -1.5 early season I think vs. DET LOSER NYJ 4 maybe even 4.5 pt stale in the Buffalo Snow Disaster, game moved to DET LOSER totally smoked by Bills, CAR now 1.5 Dog to present 3.5 at some square books 4 pt faves so fully 5 pt + stale line. LOSER?? If so and this one loses also everyone needs to agree with my intuition that The Universe don't want you playing stale lines, feels its unsavory so ya'll just gotta stop, let me alone throw myself on the sword and take these Losses in seasons to come.

tl:dr: CHI cover of 6.5 & CLE WIN = earthquake magnitude 7.7 for LVH contest & others including our own MOCK here, massive shakeup and a final week thats magnified a lot excitement wise. Don't play stale lines. Its not working. Remove this tool from your handicapping arsenal at once, cast it off into some irretrievable place. This ain't Fezzik's LVH Contest era, you're spinning your wheels with stale lines at best. More accurately, As illustrated above, already MIN, NYJ cost you 2 wins which is the exact margin, oddly enough, thats gonna separate you from Wine & Roses and cold hard baloney.

On another note: I personally find it to be totally reckless, a play against Seattle in this spot within any top entrant's 5 picks, fully 1/2 of the just 10 picks remaining. AZ starting a (all known evidence suggests) bumbling & totally incompetent unknown QB who has been with the team all of 5 weeks vs. a Defensive thats gelled since the return of Bobby Wagner 4 weeks back and is gonna be focused and ready to tee off on AZ where I see Cards playing tight, scared...desperate.

I just think there were less risky options. far from "sharp" am I though, in these matters. If I've learned nothing else from this season and observing the choices of those who saw success in this contest...."sharp" is a term that I fully have nowhere near an understanding of and a status that I have no realistic hope of achieving soon. Top Dog Ballers Redskins pick tonite, a perfect example of that. Seems as insane as a pick on AZ to me, with other options available. makes zero sense to me from a handicapping perspective beyond the very shallow "Home Dog in DIV matchup" The Redskins suck, PHI needed that game. I have no idea how one even conceives of pulling the trigger on that play AND AZ & especially 3.5 spots above the difference between $735,000 payout and a 2nd place $294,000ish cash.

Ballers is in The Midas Zone, all he touches turns to gold so AZ prolly covers too but how exactly do you locate the courage to play against Seattle with a team which, by comparison to Seahawks at least...over their last 4, is one the ropes and down to a total ? at QB just one hit away from a 4th string QB AZ has no confidence in whatsoever?

I ask these questions in an effort to grasp what it is to be "sharp", as opposed to square. What are these top players seeing in these "crazy" picks? a 3-11 WASH, 2-12 JAX, friggin imperiled Cards squad....

Seattle win = they take hold of the NFC West lead with the same record as the Cardinals (11-4) but with the head-to-head tiebreaker. Arizona could take it back the following week if the Seahawks lose to the Rams and the Cardinals beat the 49ers.

Seahawks clinched a spot in the playoffs with the surprising (to put it mildly) loss or tie by the Eagles. I appreciate that 8...7.5 whatever that AZ line is, its alot to lay with a Road fave in a crucial late season DIV matchup for both teams but we all know the direction the 2 teams have been headed in....of late. Seattle dominated AZ 19-3 a few weeks back, as they did SF by the same score only to PUSH at -10 in the rematch vs. SF in a game SF should have covered really, and SEA FAILED to cover so I guess SEA's inability to repeat their domination of SF bodes well for AZ bettors but really...

tl:dr: I don't understand why they're taking AZ. At all. Please help me understand.

What are these top cappers finding, seeing, "uncovering" to give them the courage to pull the trigger on these seemingly nuttyass plays?

**Dinger** · 12-21-2014, 08:35 AM

Interesting to read what the big boys picks are. I'll be at the Cardinals / Seahawks game tonight. They (Cards) play really well at home. but Seahawks are now playing on all cylinders. Should be a good time!! Dinger

**stardust** · 12-21-2014, 04:50 PM

Originally posted by collywobbles View Post

Great Stuff.

You've been here from the start, basically. When The Shrink still roamed The Earth & war was in The Garden. Where have you been? I ain't seen you around. 1st time I've seen you.

Heres a gift for you:

Its kinda dirty. Sorry. And the real one wherever it is ain't as big as in the picture.

Best Case at this point, and what the universe should cause to happen (for my own entertainment, if nothing else) would be Bears Defense takes the reigns, refusing to go out shamed looking like they just really don't care that much (the shade that Cutler has painted the canvas that is this year's Bears in) and stifle DET to get the cover & for CLE to topple CAR.

3rd such massive Stale line this year. Widestrides will tell you. 4 pt. Stale MIN+2.5 from -1.5 early season I think vs. DET LOSER NYJ 4 maybe even 4.5 pt stale in the Buffalo Snow Disaster, game moved to DET LOSER totally smoked by Bills, CAR now 1.5 Dog to present 3.5 at some square books 4 pt faves so fully 5 pt + stale line. LOSER?? If so and this one loses also everyone needs to agree with my intuition that The Universe don't want you playing stale lines, feels its unsavory so ya'll just gotta stop, let me alone throw myself on the sword and take these Losses in seasons to come.

tl:dr: CHI cover of 6.5 & CLE WIN = earthquake magnitude 7.7 for LVH contest & others including our own MOCK here, massive shakeup and a final week thats magnified a lot excitement wise. Don't play stale lines. Its not working. Remove this tool from your handicapping arsenal at once, cast it off into some irretrievable place. This ain't Fezzik's LVH Contest era, you're spinning your wheels with stale lines at best. More accurately, As illustrated above, already MIN, NYJ cost you 2 wins which is the exact margin, oddly enough, thats gonna separate you from Wine & Roses and cold hard baloney.

On another note: I personally find it to be totally reckless, a play against Seattle in this spot within any top entrant's 5 picks, fully 1/2 of the just 10 picks remaining. AZ starting a (all known evidence suggests) bumbling & totally incompetent unknown QB who has been with the team all of 5 weeks vs. a Defensive thats gelled since the return of Bobby Wagner 4 weeks back and is gonna be focused and ready to tee off on AZ where I see Cards playing tight, scared...desperate.

I just think there were less risky options. far from "sharp" am I though, in these matters. If I've learned nothing else from this season and observing the choices of those who saw success in this contest...."sharp" is a term that I fully have nowhere near an understanding of and a status that I have no realistic hope of achieving soon. Top Dog Ballers Redskins pick tonite, a perfect example of that. Seems as insane as a pick on AZ to me, with other options available. makes zero sense to me from a handicapping perspective beyond the very shallow "Home Dog in DIV matchup" The Redskins suck, PHI needed that game. I have no idea how one even conceives of pulling the trigger on that play AND AZ & especially 3.5 spots above the difference between $735,000 payout and a 2nd place $294,000ish cash.

Ballers is in The Midas Zone, all he touches turns to gold so AZ prolly covers too but how exactly do you locate the courage to play against Seattle with a team which, by comparison to Seahawks at least...over their last 4, is one the ropes and down to a total ? at QB just one hit away from a 4th string QB AZ has no confidence in whatsoever?

I ask these questions in an effort to grasp what it is to be "sharp", as opposed to square. What are these top players seeing in these "crazy" picks? a 3-11 WASH, 2-12 JAX, friggin imperiled Cards squad....

Seattle win = they take hold of the NFC West lead with the same record as the Cardinals (11-4) but with the head-to-head tiebreaker. Arizona could take it back the following week if the Seahawks lose to the Rams and the Cardinals beat the 49ers.

Seahawks clinched a spot in the playoffs with the surprising (to put it mildly) loss or tie by the Eagles. I appreciate that 8...7.5 whatever that AZ line is, its alot to lay with a Road fave in a crucial late season DIV matchup for both teams but we all know the direction the 2 teams have been headed in....of late. Seattle dominated AZ 19-3 a few weeks back, as they did SF by the same score only to PUSH at -10 in the rematch vs. SF in a game SF should have covered really, and SEA FAILED to cover so I guess SEA's inability to repeat their domination of SF bodes well for AZ bettors but really...

tl:dr: I don't understand why they're taking AZ. At all. Please help me understand.

What are these top cappers finding, seeing, "uncovering" to give them the courage to pull the trigger on these seemingly nuttyass plays?

I have a fair amount of Stardust chips. Boyd closed to start Echelon Center. Uh - huh. I have a bunch of photographs of the building shell - until they sold it. That joint was a cash cow and Boyd just made bad decisions at the worst possible times.

Yep, been around a long time. A regular old timer. I had an account at Aces Gold before they became Places Fold, because indeed they did.

Chicago did better without Cutler than with him, which I alluded to. There isn't a better QB to bet against in my opinion. I still lost money. Cleveland's Johnny Teaser Killer got nicked up and gave way to Hoyer the Destroyer. I got a push as it was 4 for days as far as I could see, but it was a big wager so when Hoyer entered I had a very bad feeling, so a push was better that what I was staring at most of the 4th quarter.

I don't hold myself out as a sharp or wiseguy, but I know enough to pay attention to them. I get the Gold Sheet just so I don't miss something. This is entertainment for me. Today they had:

TOP CHOICE 1� UNITS MINNESOTA (+6) over Miami
ATLANTA (+6�) over New Orleans -home
PITTSBURGH (-3) -home over Kansas City
NY GIANTS (+6�) over St. Louis -home
ARIZONA (+7�) -home over Seattle

I played every one, small though, very small. Oh and does ANYONE even think Indy would fake punt from the 19 if they were serious about the game? Come on. NEVER! Pagano can talk all he likes, it's the smart move. Dallas is up 28 points now and coming after Luck. How long will he allow that to happen?

Arizona, at home, with a great defense against a Seattle squad not real impressive on offense. Take away that bad call against SF, they only score 10 points . . . even 17 isn't overwhelming. As I see it, Ryan Lindley has been around and specifically around the Arizona club. Five weeks . . . think he was playing solitaire? You may not think he ISN'T MUCH, but in my opinion, I don't think they need much. I have a standard wager on them, so - I won't have to hide all the sharp objects or avoid high rise buildings. I got them at +9 and they are up to 9� as I type.

Stale lines? I posted the lines found on BW live odds feed when I posted the OP here. It's hardly fair to post up CAR -1� and claim a winner.

We all know anything can, and often DOES happen. That's why it's gambling. Don't bet enough to change your life win or lose. Don't get too big a grin when you win and don't sing the blues when you lose. It's the nature of the beast. I like to wager enough to make me sweat though. Entertainment . . .

Ballers is in The Midas Zone, so like they say in Vegas: I'd rather be lucky than good

**stardust** · 12-21-2014, 05:02 PM

Originally posted by Dinger View Post

Interesting to read what the big boys picks are. I'll be at the Cardinals / Seahawks game tonight. They (Cards) play really well at home. but Seahawks are now playing on all cylinders. Should be a good time!! Dinger

Well I hope it's a great game. I usually do a lot of different compiling of data and picks; it helps me and I'm not afraid to play against anybody either. Buffalo should STOMP Oakland, but no way I trust that offense, on the road, West Coast travel . . . with the two Raider wins coming at home against decent teams.

Hey - have fun at the game. I got a gift from Ryan Lindley and he included a autographed rookie card. I like and think he's a stand up guy. No matter if he wins or lays an egg, that won't change.

OK, back to hibernation with me. I doubt we'll get much good data next week. I am historically terrible on the last week.

**woodee12** · 12-21-2014, 09:57 PM

Welcome back. Haven't seen you in a while! Hope all is well.

**stardust** · 12-23-2014, 10:59 PM

Trying to figure out week 17, which has been a guessing game as long as I can remember. I think the thing to do is figure out who isn't really playing to win.

Tampa comes to mind. They now have the #1 draft pick. Reading between the lines, I expect them to keep it. HC says he's trying to win (what else can he say), but wants to get a look at some young players. They play New Orleans . . . and of course the risk is the younger players play better than the current starters. With Tampa, it's hard to imagine they can be much worse. Maybe that's why he's staying with Josh McCown. Hard to think otherwise.

Eagles claim they are playing starters, as does Now Orleans . . . all I can do is read. Input is certainly welcome!

**Carpet** · 12-24-2014, 09:04 AM

Stardust-

I do not see Tampa and Lovie smith laying down-NO is crappy but a better team than the Bucs.

I see TN laying down vs Indy locking up the first pick in the draft.

GL Sir.

**stardust** · 12-24-2014, 02:14 PM

I really wonder why HC Smith is playing Josh McCown (10 TD | 13 INT | 70.5 RAT | Career | 60 TD | 58 INT) over Mike Glennon (10 TD | 6 INT | 83.7 RAT | Career 29 TD | 15 INT).

Except for his fantastic showing in Chicago last year, McCown is in his 12th year of a mediocre NFL stint, while Glennon is in his 2nd year. Certainly McCown isn't the Tampa future, but has started every game after Tampa's 1-9 start. Tampa turned down 6 trade offers for Mike Glennon during the draft, so he's considered the QB of the future. I think they actually started evaluating players a lot earlier in the season, knowing they weren't going anywhere.

The 2015 draft features QBs Marcus Mariota and Jameis Winston. Tampa could trade Glennon and draft Mariota, or trade the #1 selection for a handful of draft picks. I think it's smart to avoid Jameis Winston completely. He's trouble if I ever saw it. I just don't see a 2-13 team beating the Saints - as bad as the Saints have been. But hey, I've been wrong before and there are many other games to pick from.

Indy - think they'll play starters the whole game? Dallas? New England will, or Bill Belichick has historically. Seattle? I know many Denver players, including Manning (thigh) really need rest.

All I can do is read, read, read and put myself in the HC position to try and suss out what will take place.

**collywobbles** · 12-24-2014, 02:38 PM

A few of us have tyrant Business Managers who are not allowing us to respond to this thread until Sunday Morning.

**collywobbles** · 12-24-2014, 04:07 PM

Originally posted by stardust View Post

All I can do is read, read, read and put myself in the HC position to try and suss out what will take place.

I tried that and its not working LOL. I keep arriving at the same insanely frustrating question: "How do I know that any of this will be applicable?"

Like you said with Indy....resting players? Surely. Not that I'd touch TENN with YOUR MONEY let alone my own...

Give Jameis a break. He's a kid. It may not be as it appears. Lets give him a chance. If we don't have Hope, what do we have?

I did manage to finish capping ONE game: Found something that I can rely on FOR SURE and thats that The team playing NE is named BILLs and the HC of NE is also named BILL so I think he's not gonna beat 'em that bad so take BUFF + the points. OH WAIT MY BUSINESS MANAGER SAYS I CAN TALK ABOUT TOTALS OK!!!

Pheww!!! I like the Under in that game. Jets at Miami Under to, for obvious reasons. Not like I'm comin' out with earthshattering stuff here.

I think if ya wanna know what we think you're gonna haveta duplicate what you did (with them LVH picks) when you started this thread and hit up our contest thread sometime after Midnight Saturday. As if its not hard enough to figure these games out we have to consider along the way if what we think is gonna be what the others think so maybe we need to fade that thought. If Week 17 is a minefield its like a "New & Improved" minefield with MORE MINES!!!

Tryin' to navigate this particular minefield could lead to a guy having to risk a play on Andy Dalton to go TWO PRIMETIME GAMES IN A ROW without imploding lol. God Forbid....I really hope it don't come to that.

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Real Hilton Top 5 and also picks from the top players.

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