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  1. #1

    AFC / NFC Title Games

    I read all the pundits and find Bill Simmons to be damned funny. From this week's column:

    How would Peyton Manning’s retirement affect the TV commercial landscape? Every third non-Cialis commercial features Peyton Manning. If Manning retires one of two things will happen: 1) he has MORE time to film commercials (“Hi, I’m Peyton Manning, if you’ve had your ass kicked in the playoffs as much I have, then you’ll appreciate the cool, soothing relief of Preparation H”) or 2) a void is created. BTW - he likes Green Bay and Indy.

    Also as far as using a #1 pick to trade for Trent Richardson, they could have used a lower draft selection and just made him Jim Irsay's driver.

    What happened last week with Denver? Starting with the spread, it shot up to 9˝ by game time, so somebody somewhere was moving significant amounts of scratch. I have no idea who or why. Maybe they beat the line up that far to get down on Indy, or maybe somebody with more money than brains got on Denver (that description fits me).

    Fox got fired (they can call it whatever they like) and at 8:00 left in the 4th quarter, I can see why. It was like the entire Broncos team was shuffling around in a buffet line. No sense of urgency, ZERO. It was like they knew they'd lose and couldn't wait to get it over with. When Manning had the ball slapped out of his hand, he made ZERO effort to recover the fumble. He looked like a disinterested observer at a craps game.

    OK, with Aaron Rodgers not 100% I'm hesitant to back him. The correct (but based on an absurd rule) call against Dallas last week was the difference in the game. They have to change that rule; it's ridiculous. Very close tilt against a well-above average defense last week. They play today against a similar squad, the difference being up front. I don't think Seattle gets the same pressure with 4 as Detroit did. Look for Seattle to send 5 early and test Rodgers calf/mobility. That's what I'd do . . . still, you do have to consider Green bay's defense is among the best Seattle has faced - if you discount Arizona and San Francisco - as they had serious offensive shortcomings, namely they just couldn't put points on the board.

    I think the total is just too high. Opened at 46˝, now 44˝-45 although the side has edged up to 8 and 9˝ at 5 Dimes - THE place to bet dogs as they always have a significantly generous line. The bottom line here is this: Seattle's stretch run looks impressive statistically, but in reality not so much. I expect to see a defensive struggle and points at a premium. GB RB Lacy will get 100 yards against a suddenly soft Seattle run D. Weather alert - forecast of rain and I saw a possibility of wind gusts up to 60 MPH I don't care who you are, throwing in wind gusts like that will be impossible. I'll lay a wager on Green Bay as well as under the total. I think they are both strong plays. Disclosure: I do not like Seattle; they are not gracious winners.

    Patriot fans got yet another scare from the Ravens who had plenty of chances to win the game, but came up short. Great game, another Baltimore cover. This week they face a MUCH better defense and if the Ravens could hang 30 points on the Pats, rest assured the Colts can as well. The thing in this game - and in all New England Games - is Rob "I threw him out of the club" Gronkowski. Nobody has an answer for him, because there is none. The best you can hope for is to mitigate the damage he'll do. I read it somewhere, but the Colts has been successful keeping Gronk in check, even while getting blown out. Maybe because they were running for 200 yards? The Indy defense is better and has played better than New England. HC Pagano, previously a DC for Baltimore, has had a pretty good track record against Brady and Co. there, but it hasn't carried over to his new team, though he certainly doesn't have the same talent.

    That damned evil genius Belichick can tie opposing QBs in knots and Luck has not fared well (6 TDs | 8 INTs) against him. Either Luck doesn't get the correct hot read against the blitz, or is confused by the coverage to where he holds the ball way too long. Look for 3-5 step drops early in the game along with "Boom" Herron on the ground to stymie the Patriot scheme. I look for Indy to copy Baltimore's offense and play the solid defense they've been playing. Based on the revenge motivation from recent blowouts, a better defense and decent weather (44 degrees at game time, wind 12 mph) I expect an exciting, competitive, close game. Honestly, getting less than 7 just doesn't appeal to me, so on this game I'll pass and watch as a fan. If I can get 7, I'll make a small wager for, as the bookie says, "cheer money."

    Other plays by the pundits:

    The Gold Sheet

    SEATTLE 33 - Green Bay 19
    NEW ENGLAND 31 - Indianapolis 29
    *********
    Powersweep

    GB/SEA Under 1*
    Patriots x 13 3*
    *********
    Grantland/Bill Simmons

    Colts
    Green Bay
    *********
    Greg Cote - Miami Herald

    Green Bay
    New England
    *********
    Wunderdog - Free Play

    Green Bay
    *********
    Bleacher Report

    Green Bay
    Colts

    Green Bay at Seattle (over 46 points)
    Indianapolis at New England (over 53 points)

    *********
    Man v Machine

    PACKERS: 20 (37% win probability)
    SEAHAWKS: 27 (63%)
    VEGAS: Seahawks (-7.5)

    SEAHAWKS: 23 PACKERS: 9

    COLTS: 28 (48%)
    PATRIOTS: 31 (52%)
    VEGAS: Patriots (-6.5)

    PATRIOTS: 34 COLTS: 31
    *********
    Massey-Peabody (Statistics Expert)

    Green Bay +7/+7.5 at Seattle [MP Line: GB +2.5] Big Play
    New England -6.3 vs. Indianapolis (Mean Play)
    *********
    Team Rankings - good site for stats. (YPP) Yards Per Point is one I always look at . . .

    SEA
    NE
    *********
    Just remember:

    Don't bet the farm; you'll be a sharecropper.

    Stardust Sonny

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Sep 2014
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    312
    Quote Originally Posted by stardust View Post
    What happened last week with Denver? Starting with the spread, it shot up to 9˝ by game time, so somebody somewhere was moving significant amounts of scratch. I have no idea who or why. Maybe they beat the line up that far to get down on Indy, or maybe somebody with more money than brains got on Denver (that description fits me).

    It was like the entire Broncos team was shuffling around in a buffet line. No sense of urgency, ZERO. It was like they knew they'd lose and couldn't wait to get it over with. When Manning had the ball slapped out of his hand, he made ZERO effort to recover the fumble. He looked like a disinterested observer at a craps game.
    For what little it is worth, and trust that it is worth very very little in regards to what Whales/"Inside Traders" of NFL Betting do, my personal opinion is that the line was moved so Whales could go heavy on Indy late after sucking in as much $$$ as possible on Denver.

    Prepare yourself mentally for "revelations"....most likely NO TIME SOON but more like 15-ish years after Peyton hangs it up that he was far from the "Mr. Clean" presented.

    We've seen his teams crash and burn like this before. Now 9 (NINE) "one and dones" in postseason. I appreciate that he was hurt this time....I am just saying (maybe I am totally wrong) but I personally would not be at all surprised if very "shocking" truths eventually see the light of day that answer your question: "What happened last week with Denver?"

    Whatever the case....common sense dictates that Manning + Postseason = No Play or Fade. Ain't no way anyone with the sense that God gave to a Orange Beet could back P. Mannning postseason. SHADY as phuc.

  3. #3
    Join Date
    Nov 2005
    Posts
    4,402
    Give me a break colly. We're talking about Peyton Manning here. We might as well be talking about Tim Tebow.

  4. #4
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    Sep 2014
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    Quote Originally Posted by dragon1952 View Post
    Give me a break colly. We're talking about Peyton Manning here. We might as well be talking about Tim Tebow.
    Yeah, I know...crazy. I've just watched now so many Peyton teams (& a few pretty heavily favored) go down in postseason that maybe this has caused me to lose my mind. He had a Torn Quad this time....would have been nice to have known this prior to the game instead of the day after.

  5. #5
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    Sep 1998
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    Some heavy hitters knew of this injury-sure wish I did......

  6. #6
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    Sep 2014
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    Quote Originally Posted by Carpet View Post
    Some heavy hitters knew of this injury-sure wish I did......
    Yeah, I hear that. Am I naive to assume that the late line jump to Indy +9.5 (from what....8...7.5???) means the books were NOT among those who knew?

  7. #7
    Join Date
    Sep 1998
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    4,589
    Quote Originally Posted by collywobbles View Post
    Yeah, I hear that. Am I naive to assume that the late line jump to Indy +9.5 (from what....8...7.5???) means the books were NOT among those who knew?
    I do not think the books new they only adjust to money coming in. It was the bettors/sharps that drove that line the book had to accomadate-Dont get me wrong I am sure they were praying for a Indy cover

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