I read all the pundits and find Bill Simmons to be damned funny. From this week's column:
How would Peyton Manning’s retirement affect the TV commercial landscape? Every third non-Cialis commercial features Peyton Manning. If Manning retires one of two things will happen: 1) he has MORE time to film commercials (“Hi, I’m Peyton Manning, if you’ve had your ass kicked in the playoffs as much I have, then you’ll appreciate the cool, soothing relief of Preparation H”) or 2) a void is created. BTW - he likes Green Bay and Indy.
Also as far as using a #1 pick to trade for Trent Richardson, they could have used a lower draft selection and just made him Jim Irsay's driver.
What happened last week with Denver? Starting with the spread, it shot up to 9˝ by game time, so somebody somewhere was moving significant amounts of scratch. I have no idea who or why. Maybe they beat the line up that far to get down on Indy, or maybe somebody with more money than brains got on Denver (that description fits me).
Fox got fired (they can call it whatever they like) and at 8:00 left in the 4th quarter, I can see why. It was like the entire Broncos team was shuffling around in a buffet line. No sense of urgency, ZERO. It was like they knew they'd lose and couldn't wait to get it over with. When Manning had the ball slapped out of his hand, he made ZERO effort to recover the fumble. He looked like a disinterested observer at a craps game.
OK, with Aaron Rodgers not 100% I'm hesitant to back him. The correct (but based on an absurd rule) call against Dallas last week was the difference in the game. They have to change that rule; it's ridiculous. Very close tilt against a well-above average defense last week. They play today against a similar squad, the difference being up front. I don't think Seattle gets the same pressure with 4 as Detroit did. Look for Seattle to send 5 early and test Rodgers calf/mobility. That's what I'd do . . . still, you do have to consider Green bay's defense is among the best Seattle has faced - if you discount Arizona and San Francisco - as they had serious offensive shortcomings, namely they just couldn't put points on the board.
I think the total is just too high. Opened at 46˝, now 44˝-45 although the side has edged up to 8 and 9˝ at 5 Dimes - THE place to bet dogs as they always have a significantly generous line. The bottom line here is this: Seattle's stretch run looks impressive statistically, but in reality not so much. I expect to see a defensive struggle and points at a premium. GB RB Lacy will get 100 yards against a suddenly soft Seattle run D. Weather alert - forecast of rain and I saw a possibility of wind gusts up to 60 MPH I don't care who you are, throwing in wind gusts like that will be impossible. I'll lay a wager on Green Bay as well as under the total. I think they are both strong plays. Disclosure: I do not like Seattle; they are not gracious winners.
Patriot fans got yet another scare from the Ravens who had plenty of chances to win the game, but came up short. Great game, another Baltimore cover. This week they face a MUCH better defense and if the Ravens could hang 30 points on the Pats, rest assured the Colts can as well. The thing in this game - and in all New England Games - is Rob "I threw him out of the club" Gronkowski. Nobody has an answer for him, because there is none. The best you can hope for is to mitigate the damage he'll do. I read it somewhere, but the Colts has been successful keeping Gronk in check, even while getting blown out. Maybe because they were running for 200 yards? The Indy defense is better and has played better than New England. HC Pagano, previously a DC for Baltimore, has had a pretty good track record against Brady and Co. there, but it hasn't carried over to his new team, though he certainly doesn't have the same talent.
That damned evil genius Belichick can tie opposing QBs in knots and Luck has not fared well (6 TDs | 8 INTs) against him. Either Luck doesn't get the correct hot read against the blitz, or is confused by the coverage to where he holds the ball way too long. Look for 3-5 step drops early in the game along with "Boom" Herron on the ground to stymie the Patriot scheme. I look for Indy to copy Baltimore's offense and play the solid defense they've been playing. Based on the revenge motivation from recent blowouts, a better defense and decent weather (44 degrees at game time, wind 12 mph) I expect an exciting, competitive, close game. Honestly, getting less than 7 just doesn't appeal to me, so on this game I'll pass and watch as a fan. If I can get 7, I'll make a small wager for, as the bookie says, "cheer money."
Other plays by the pundits:
The Gold Sheet
SEATTLE 33 - Green Bay 19
NEW ENGLAND 31 - Indianapolis 29
*********
Powersweep
GB/SEA Under 1*
Patriots x 13 3*
*********
Grantland/Bill Simmons
Colts
Green Bay
*********
Greg Cote - Miami Herald
Green Bay
New England
*********
Wunderdog - Free Play
Green Bay
*********
Bleacher Report
Green Bay
Colts
Green Bay at Seattle (over 46 points)
Indianapolis at New England (over 53 points)
*********
Man v Machine
PACKERS: 20 (37% win probability)
SEAHAWKS: 27 (63%)
VEGAS: Seahawks (-7.5)
SEAHAWKS: 23 PACKERS: 9
COLTS: 28 (48%)
PATRIOTS: 31 (52%)
VEGAS: Patriots (-6.5)
PATRIOTS: 34 COLTS: 31
*********
Massey-Peabody (Statistics Expert)
Green Bay +7/+7.5 at Seattle [MP Line: GB +2.5] Big Play
New England -6.3 vs. Indianapolis (Mean Play)
*********
Team Rankings - good site for stats. (YPP) Yards Per Point is one I always look at . . .
SEA
NE
*********
Just remember:
Don't bet the farm; you'll be a sharecropper.
Stardust Sonny
How would Peyton Manning’s retirement affect the TV commercial landscape? Every third non-Cialis commercial features Peyton Manning. If Manning retires one of two things will happen: 1) he has MORE time to film commercials (“Hi, I’m Peyton Manning, if you’ve had your ass kicked in the playoffs as much I have, then you’ll appreciate the cool, soothing relief of Preparation H”) or 2) a void is created. BTW - he likes Green Bay and Indy.
Also as far as using a #1 pick to trade for Trent Richardson, they could have used a lower draft selection and just made him Jim Irsay's driver.
What happened last week with Denver? Starting with the spread, it shot up to 9˝ by game time, so somebody somewhere was moving significant amounts of scratch. I have no idea who or why. Maybe they beat the line up that far to get down on Indy, or maybe somebody with more money than brains got on Denver (that description fits me).
Fox got fired (they can call it whatever they like) and at 8:00 left in the 4th quarter, I can see why. It was like the entire Broncos team was shuffling around in a buffet line. No sense of urgency, ZERO. It was like they knew they'd lose and couldn't wait to get it over with. When Manning had the ball slapped out of his hand, he made ZERO effort to recover the fumble. He looked like a disinterested observer at a craps game.
OK, with Aaron Rodgers not 100% I'm hesitant to back him. The correct (but based on an absurd rule) call against Dallas last week was the difference in the game. They have to change that rule; it's ridiculous. Very close tilt against a well-above average defense last week. They play today against a similar squad, the difference being up front. I don't think Seattle gets the same pressure with 4 as Detroit did. Look for Seattle to send 5 early and test Rodgers calf/mobility. That's what I'd do . . . still, you do have to consider Green bay's defense is among the best Seattle has faced - if you discount Arizona and San Francisco - as they had serious offensive shortcomings, namely they just couldn't put points on the board.
I think the total is just too high. Opened at 46˝, now 44˝-45 although the side has edged up to 8 and 9˝ at 5 Dimes - THE place to bet dogs as they always have a significantly generous line. The bottom line here is this: Seattle's stretch run looks impressive statistically, but in reality not so much. I expect to see a defensive struggle and points at a premium. GB RB Lacy will get 100 yards against a suddenly soft Seattle run D. Weather alert - forecast of rain and I saw a possibility of wind gusts up to 60 MPH I don't care who you are, throwing in wind gusts like that will be impossible. I'll lay a wager on Green Bay as well as under the total. I think they are both strong plays. Disclosure: I do not like Seattle; they are not gracious winners.
Patriot fans got yet another scare from the Ravens who had plenty of chances to win the game, but came up short. Great game, another Baltimore cover. This week they face a MUCH better defense and if the Ravens could hang 30 points on the Pats, rest assured the Colts can as well. The thing in this game - and in all New England Games - is Rob "I threw him out of the club" Gronkowski. Nobody has an answer for him, because there is none. The best you can hope for is to mitigate the damage he'll do. I read it somewhere, but the Colts has been successful keeping Gronk in check, even while getting blown out. Maybe because they were running for 200 yards? The Indy defense is better and has played better than New England. HC Pagano, previously a DC for Baltimore, has had a pretty good track record against Brady and Co. there, but it hasn't carried over to his new team, though he certainly doesn't have the same talent.
That damned evil genius Belichick can tie opposing QBs in knots and Luck has not fared well (6 TDs | 8 INTs) against him. Either Luck doesn't get the correct hot read against the blitz, or is confused by the coverage to where he holds the ball way too long. Look for 3-5 step drops early in the game along with "Boom" Herron on the ground to stymie the Patriot scheme. I look for Indy to copy Baltimore's offense and play the solid defense they've been playing. Based on the revenge motivation from recent blowouts, a better defense and decent weather (44 degrees at game time, wind 12 mph) I expect an exciting, competitive, close game. Honestly, getting less than 7 just doesn't appeal to me, so on this game I'll pass and watch as a fan. If I can get 7, I'll make a small wager for, as the bookie says, "cheer money."
Other plays by the pundits:
The Gold Sheet
SEATTLE 33 - Green Bay 19
NEW ENGLAND 31 - Indianapolis 29
*********
Powersweep
GB/SEA Under 1*
Patriots x 13 3*
*********
Grantland/Bill Simmons
Colts
Green Bay
*********
Greg Cote - Miami Herald
Green Bay
New England
*********
Wunderdog - Free Play
Green Bay
*********
Bleacher Report
Green Bay
Colts
Green Bay at Seattle (over 46 points)
Indianapolis at New England (over 53 points)
*********
Man v Machine
PACKERS: 20 (37% win probability)
SEAHAWKS: 27 (63%)
VEGAS: Seahawks (-7.5)
SEAHAWKS: 23 PACKERS: 9
COLTS: 28 (48%)
PATRIOTS: 31 (52%)
VEGAS: Patriots (-6.5)
PATRIOTS: 34 COLTS: 31
*********
Massey-Peabody (Statistics Expert)
Green Bay +7/+7.5 at Seattle [MP Line: GB +2.5] Big Play
New England -6.3 vs. Indianapolis (Mean Play)
*********
Team Rankings - good site for stats. (YPP) Yards Per Point is one I always look at . . .
SEA
NE
*********
Just remember:
Don't bet the farm; you'll be a sharecropper.
Stardust Sonny
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