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  1. #1
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    Aug 2007
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    SUPER BOWL LI (NE vs. ATL)

    I have crunched my numbers into my system, using box scores of the last 12 games.
    Adjusted for strength of schedule.

    I have Atlanta Falcons at -3.5.

    So I'm betting the Falcons on the money line to win the Superbowl.

    Good luck out there....Dinger

    Like to hear everyones opinion (take) on the big game.

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Nov 2005
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    I am obviously not in tune with these playoff teams as I am just 2-4 in the Div. and Conf. championship games
    but you've got to think Belichick will come up with something to disrupt Ryan's timing. I read the following this
    morning.
    "ATL - QB Matt Ryan the best without pressure

    Source: NBC Sports - Chris Collinsworth

    Atlanta Falcons QB Matt Ryan's passer rating is 131.1 when he's in a clean pocket. That's the best rating in the NFL by more than 10 points.
    Ryan put up great numbers this year, but perhaps most impressive is that only 12.4 percent of his passes were considered "off target." That
    mark ranks second in the league, only behind Drew Brees (10.0 percent)."

    The line is NE -3 with a high total of 59.5. This is the highest total in SB history. There have only been 8 other SB's with a total higher than 50.
    5 of those went under the total, 5 of those the dog won SU and in only 3 did the favorite win and cover.
    Tom Brady is 4-2 in SB's, and 4-0 when not facing the Giants...ha ha.
    Some tidbits,
    1. Super Bowl LI pits the top-ranked scoring offense (Atlanta) against the top-ranked scoring defense (New England). That's happened six times
    before and the old adage that "defense wins championships" has been validated in five of those games.
    2. (and as I pointed out last week which is one reason I took Pit +6) ... the Pats played the easiest schedule of any team in the NFL.
    3. Both teams were 7-1 ATS in away games this year.
    4. ATL was 13-2-1 to the OV, NE was 6-10 to the UN.
    5. ATL was 6-2 SU in away games, NE was 8-0 SU away.
    6. Brady is 13-1 as a starter this year and the Pats defense has given up more than 17 points just 3 times in those 14 games
    7. ATL gave up 24 or more points in 10 games.
    8. ATL scored 100 pts more than NE yet NE out-scored opponents by 57 more pts. than ATL.

    NE obviously hasn't seen an offense like Atlanta's so you figure they're not going to be in the group that scored 17 or less
    against the Pats. Even in their 5 losses ATL scored 24 or more in 4 of those. But you figure this will be the toughest test
    for ATL this year, both on offense and on defense.
    Of the offenses ATL has seen this year that you could put anywhere near the same category as NE's, they gave up 32 twice
    to the Saints and 32 to GB. They did hold GB to just 21 last game but GB was moving the ball really well and missed a 41 yd FG
    and then fumbled inside the 5 yd line or else it might have been closer to 31 pts.

    I'm guessing NE has to at least hit their average of ~31 ppg (with Brady as starter) and ATL doesn't quite hit their average of ~34 ppg
    as I trust Belichick to come up with something defensively to slow Ryan down.
    Final score prediction - NE 34 ATL 27

  3. #3
    Join Date
    Sep 1998
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    New England is where my green backs flow.

    Atlanta has not faced a defense like this all year they are not going to get the easy reads that GB spoiled them with.

    NE by 10

  4. #4
    Join Date
    Aug 2000
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    8,071
    Leaning New England myself.

    I saw a line at my book before last week that had the pats -3.5 over Atlanta as a early line I could have played.

    What made that line shift 7 points? Pats should be favored still. Green Bay is not as good as they looked before the Atlanta game. Too much emphasis being put in how they smoked the pack but the pats basically did the same thing to a better steelers team.

  5. #5
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    Aug 2000
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    My bad. I was looking at the wrong thing. Pats are favored. Duh.

    My pick insight is still the same though. Thought that was a weird line I saw!

  6. #6
    Join Date
    Jun 2001
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    432
    Because I love trends, going with the white jerseys of New England. Not exactly earth shattering analysis and feel like the oddsmakers are making mocking me with the Patriots-3 -105.

  7. #7
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    Nov 2005
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    I will admit that I have pretty much given up on gambling, as such, and have been concentrating more on DFS
    and fantasy sports in the past couple years but this is as shocker. I deposited for the SB and evidently my sportsbook
    now has an "opt out" option? For example I made a SB bet of $57.50 to win $50 on NE -3 (-115) and it is showing a
    "cash out now" option for $48.37!?!? Same on my $10 3 team NBA parlay for tonite... I can evidently pussy out on the deal
    and cash out for $7.72!?!? Ha..fucking...ha! What's this world coming to?

  8. #8
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    Nov 2005
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    Does anyone actually think Atlanta has a shot in this game? I can't believe the line hasn't moved :^ /

  9. #9
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
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    1,888
    Quote Originally Posted by dragon1952 View Post
    I will admit that I have pretty much given up on gambling, as such, and have been concentrating more on DFS
    and fantasy sports in the past couple years but this is as shocker. I deposited for the SB and evidently my sportsbook
    now has an "opt out" option? For example I made a SB bet of $57.50 to win $50 on NE -3 (-115) and it is showing a
    "cash out now" option for $48.37!?!? Same on my $10 3 team NBA parlay for tonite... I can evidently pussy out on the deal
    and cash out for $7.72!?!? Ha..fucking...ha! What's this world coming to?
    Prevents so called "triggers". Your sports book doesn't want you to be offended if you lose. ha, ha.
    Saw this quote, which is the same thing, "people are having trouble taking responsibility for my
    actions".

  10. #10
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    Aug 2000
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    8,071
    My final call is a teaser....

    Pats +4
    Under 65

  11. #11
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    Nov 2005
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    Ha ha...wow! That's about all I can say. From what I read earlier Vegas had taken a hit in the playoffs, and now this with, from what I gather,
    most of the money that had come in as of Sun. morning was on NE (around 60% even though the line never really moved) and on the over.
    If that is in fact true then they'll need plenty of Vaseline tomorrow. :^ /

  12. #12
    Join Date
    Nov 2005
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    Quote Originally Posted by woodee12 View Post
    My final call is a teaser....

    Pats +4
    Under 65
    Oh...and congrats on the teaser woodee ;^ )

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