Betting the NFL, Part 3

[ajax50]

GASMAN,WHY DIG SO DEEP WHEN THE ANSWER IS RIGHT THERE.YES, THE PUBLIC DOES WIN BUT THEY LOSE IN THE LONG RUN.WE ALL WOULD LIKE TO THINK THAT OUR METHOD OF HANDICAPPING IS THE BEST,AS IT IS AN EGO TRIP TO A GREAT DEGREE.GIVE ME THE RATIO AND THE ABILITY TO GET GOOD NUMBERS AND MY HOMEWORK IS DONE.

[Count Zero]

It worked this week, that's for sure.

[ajax50]

EXCEPT FOR CLEVELAND,B/M'S MADE A FORTUNE

[AussieVamp2]

any updates?

[Scott Landau]

Wow, this was a great thread prior to my lurking days! Sorry I missed it.

[reno]

The baseball plays have been doing great. Unfortunately, because I am no longer a partner of the computer programmer, I haven't been getting them lately. My ex-partner went down to Mexico to take care of business, and when he returns I will offer to pay him a percentage of my winnings in return for the plays. If that doesn't work, I'll eventually start doing my own handicapping.

[AussieVamp2]

Scott, was browsing the archives (while still there )

Worth a read - choose option on Oddswiz to see all topics, so to speak, and have a browse

[Jeff]

[irish]

I always thought rushing yardage was the number 1 corralation with winning in football(pick-up,high-school,college or where ever)maybe im too simple!!!!!!!!!!!

[reno]

Irish, rushing yardage is one of the LEAST important stats. Crummy teams get behind early, and in the second half, the better team allows them to run the ball, thus eating up the clock. Consequently, crummy teams often accumulate a lot of rushing yardage and even a high rushing average. Passing is far more important. Generally speaking, teams that make the big pass plays and stop the big pass plays are the dominant teams in the NFL.

[zippy]

Thank you, Reno. The correlation between rushing success and winning football games is routinely grossly misinterpreted. This is one of my pet peeves about what passes for “analysis” by ex-jock announcers and their ilk.

They’ve got the causation almost exactly reversed. Teams don’t win because they get a lot of rushing yards; they get a lot of rushing yards because they win. More specifically, teams that are ahead in games tend to run more (to use clock), and teams that are behind tend to pass more (to try to score quickly). Since the teams that are ahead end up winning more often than not, the result is that winning teams do indeed tend to accumulate more rushing yards (and losing teams often end up with a lot of passing yardage).

Correlation is not causation. Yes, winning teams tend to run the ball more. They also tend to play back-up quarterbacks in the fourth quarter more, kneel down in the final two minutes of games more, etc. Accumulating more rushing yardage is no more the key to winning football than is yanking your starters earlier or calling more kneel down plays.

It’s like my noticing a correlation between people having high incomes and spending a lot of money on yachts and sports cars and such, and I conclude that the best way for me to increase my income is to start spending money like a drunken sailor.

[DoggieStyle]

You guys might be right about more rushing yards having no impact. I do think some of the most solid plays involve GREAT rushing teams that are playing teams that just can't stop the run. Even more so in colleges. But you just can't go by the rushing stats because they are not always entirely acurate.

[AussieVamp2]

well, ex-jocks and their lack of understanding of statistics involved with the game you can see on tv too

it is funny, but almost the same thing as you express there

[AussieVamp2]

and reno, did they ever get around to hockey?

[AussieVamp2]

rushing and college and the NFL would have to be different, to start with, due to the 'non-closed' nature of college football - it is not a league, as such

and also, rushing stat calculated differently