Contrary to the opinion of some, people who practice sports arbitrage (scalping) are not second class citizens in the gambling world. In an arsenal of strategies designed to achieve bankroll growth and work over the long haul, it is imperative to put the house percentage in your favor, however slight that may be.
The reverse middle scalp can be one of the most profitable, and for those of us who love the thrill of gambling, one of the most exciting strategies employed. All while making sure that you achieve a profit year in and year out.
An example of a reverse middle scalp would be the Tampa Bay/Philadelphia game. I bought the over 10 at +140 and the under 9.5 at -115, thus leaving me 25 cents to put in my pocket any way I desire.
Here's basically how it works using some sample dollar amounts: I choose to split my profits down the middle, thus insuring a profit no matter if over or under gets there.
In this scenario, we will use multiples of $500 roughly and one can adjust up or down from that based on your own bankroll:
I bet over 10 +140 which made it:
$500 to win $700
I bet under 9.5 -115 per $500 bet which made it:
$644 to win $560
If over got there I would have won $56 per $500 bet.
If under got there (it did)
it means I won $60.
What's the catch? If EXACTLY 10 gets there you lose $644 on the under bet and push (tie) on the over bet, a scenario which almost happened as it was 5-3 with a man on 2nd and a home run would have cost me a bunch.
Now here is the theory behind any reverse middle scalp in putting the house percentage in your favor which ensures profitability OVER THE LONG HAUL.
Professionals will tell you to way to figure out whether anything in sports is worth wagering is to do a statistical analysis on occurrences over a five-year, ten-year or longer sampling.
So let's say after your hard work you come up with a figure (for ease's sake) that the number 10 occurs 10% of the time (not the real number, it's closer to 7%) in Interleague Play during the total numbers of years since Interleague Play commenced.
Using this model that the number 10 falls 10% of the time, that means that in 1 in 10 events (baseball games), there will be a total combined score of 10. This means from a mathematical standpoint that you must receive MORE than 10 cents each time to turn a profit. If your research is correct and there aren't major variables (such as a juiced up ball and a Mark McGuire), which may make your research inaccurate, then you will turn a profit day in and day out if you practice this strategy.
Personally, because I have a very low tolerance for gambling, and because the opportunities present themselves, I never cut it that close. I make sure that I split not 20 cents, but at least 25 cents and more likely 30 cents, although 30 cent situations and above are harder to find.
There can be many variances on this strategy, you can weight the profit going with the steam (a good idea since steam was so hot last year) or against the steam. You can weight the profit on the dog or the favorite. I choose to split it down the middle, meaning if I don't have my number landed on exactly, I show a pretty decent profit.
Any strategy that puts the house percentage in YOUR favor is a strategy that day in and day out will make you money. Always practice this strategy within your bankroll and use a predetermined amount because varying your wager brings a very strong element of luck involved and may kill you even over the long haul.
If you win a bunch of $200 scalps and then increase your wagers and a $5,000 reverse middle lands, you'll spend alot of time trying to make up that 5 dimes. Not only that, you'll may get discouraged and quit. But if you set a pretermined amount and stick with it and keep track of your progress at the end of the season, I think you'll find that you made quite a bundle by the end of baseball season.
Statistical probabilities and something called the "law of large numbers" ensure that eventually you will make profits, even if you take some hits early on.