Reverse Middle Scalps: Putting the House Percentage in Your Favor.

[AussieVamp2]

Totals from last year

1 28 1.1%
2 21 0.9%
3 118 4.8%
4 74 3.0%
5 191 7.8%
6 161 6.6%
7 248 10.1%
8 170 6.9%
9 226 9.2%
10 156 6.3%
11 200 8.1%
12 145 5.9%
13 152 6.2%
14 112 4.6%
15 114 4.6%
16 80 3.3%
17 72 2.9%
18 39 1.6%
19 41 1.7%
20 28 1.1%
21 25 1.0%
22 18 0.7%
23 11 0.4%
24 5 0.2%
25 7 0.3%
26 3 0.1%
27 4 0.2%
28 2 0.1%
29 1 0.0%
30 2 0.1%
31 2 0.1%
36 1 0.0%

[AussieVamp2]

so 6 and 7 very common scores, but totals around there are very rare....

[AussieVamp2]

so looking at last year, 9 seems to be the only 'danger' total for this strategy, with the others being similar or better to their actual overall frequency in the whole season

[AussieVamp2]

This then makes an approximate 2 season sample of :-

1 62 1.3%
2 62 1.3%
3 238 4.9%
4 169 3.4%
5 431 8.8%
6 311 6.3%
7 504 10.3%
8 342 7.0%
9 469 9.6%
10 328 6.7%
11 406 8.3%
12 259 5.3%
13 284 5.8%
14 199 4.1%
15 235 4.8%
16 134 2.7%
17 136 2.8%
18 77 1.6%
19 70 1.4%
20 52 1.1%
21 44 0.9%
22 27 0.6%
23 17 0.3%
24 11 0.2%
25 15 0.3%
26 4 0.1%
27 5 0.1%
28 3 0.1%
29 2 0.0%
30 3 0.1%

[AussieVamp2]

so close to 5000 games, a pretty good sample - the most common moderate range odd numbers being more common - 7,9,11

but don't have to worry about totals of 7 very often......

need to look at more seasons - and has the 'average' total given by bookies goon up this year - Houston, SF, etc. - so are there more 9.5s than 9, or anything like that? That might have an effect.

[AussieVamp2]

and looking at this year's sample on the previous page though - again it is 9 that has had a good percentage of pushes

8 out of 100, so around the mark again as a high push number - so it seems the common is a common occurrence and the bookmakers are reasonable at getting it

[pay2play]

From AV's work, I say you'd be best off, being coservative, to assume a 12% hit rate for odd number totals, and 8% for evens.

[pay2play]

So, if you take the coservative estimate of your chance of the total landing flat,
apply it to your opening example

8% chance of -644 = -51.52
92% chance of +58 = +53.36

expectation, on 1144 investment: 1.84
thats dollars, not percent. So, about 2/10 of a percent ROI.

Not including the risk of being shut out on on half of the wager.

[intheknow]

Come on Guys
Stop it, just stop it
The last thing we BM's need is you guys going around and educating players. Whatever happened to the players who play for fun. All you guys want to do is break the house. I have always felt I provided entertainment for people for a 10% juice price. You guys are rough on us. Keep your secrets to yourself!

Just Kidding

[chance_of_rain]

AV2's numbers for 1999 show 2456 games played, 103 pushed, that's about 4.2% or 1 in 24. So Boomer's original post stated an average win of $58 ($56-$60), and if the score landed on the O/U number, a loss of $644.

23 O/U winners X $58 = $1334 - 1 loss X $644 = $690 profit over 24 bets.

The 10.0 O/U numbers were 188-196-20, the 9.5 numbers were 184-207. Total games = 795, total pushes = 20 or 2.5% (1 in 40).

39 O/U winners X $58 = $2262 - 1 loss X $644 = $1618 profit over 40 bets.

Is it this simple or am I missing something here?

[pay2play]

rain, you're including the 1/2 numbered totals in developing your % chance of failure, which of course can not be landed on, and aren't relevant. This play is always going to have a whole number involved.
The whole numbered results from AV's sample:
Odd numbered totals:
7 1/19
9 56/493
11 13/191
13 3/19

Total 73/722, about 10% hits.

Even numbers 8,10 and 12 hit at 29/541, 5.4%

This is obviously going to be more profitable on even numbers, and with a good line differential, no line slippage and no payout problems, if you can get enough down and don't hit a bad run, you can make some. I'm not saying it's a bad play. If you can bet enough, safely enough, often enough, you can edge some out. But it isn't scalping where at least theoretically you aren't risking anything (in actuality, its my understanding from Reno's and Boomer's posts that shut outs and line slippage lead to positions being held sometimes). BM's sometimes find themselves in the position whereby they make a profit as long as the middle doesn't hit; a bettor making this play is in a similar position.

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