Get down on Gore now

[Rich]

GO AL GO!

People that don't follow politics have no idea what this is like, A football game that goes on for about a year with fumbles and big plays on both sides, as for me I'm going
totally crazy right now.

The reason for Bush's lead in the likely voter polls is THE REPUBLICAN BASE they are
motivated and will turn out in big numbers everywhere, listen to Limbaugh if you don't believe it. HOWEVER in most if not all bground states DEMOCRATS if they show up in good numbers will overwhelm all GOP turnout.
That is the question, by the way Florida is not the case DEMS always turnout especially seniors it's just that the state isn't as naturally Democratic as lets say Michigan

[Rich]

ZOGBY'S 6 OCLOCK LAST POLL WILL SHOW
GORE TAKING THE LEAD NATIONWIDE AND HOLDING
IN THE KEY BATTLEGROUNDS

WATCH OUT W THE TRAIN IS COMING!

[Phil]

John Zogby was just on MSNBC. He's releasing polls at 6pm that have GORE ahead in the POPULAR VOTE!!!

and he said he feels it's pretty much sowen up for Gore in Michigan, that Penn is strongly trending to Gore, and that he (Gore) is still ahead in Florida

Boys, Gore is gonna win this. It will be close but if Al takes the big 3 Battlegrounds, I like the +MONEY

[whiteboy]

Is Gregg saying he has Bush -175 to win Michigan? Am I reading that right? Great value there, maybe.

Iowa futures markets give Bush 70% chance of winning. Who knows.

[Phil]

I'm right there with ya Rich!

apparently we watch the same tv shows

did you see the way MSNBC did theoretical electoral college projections earlier this afternoon on their map board. That was great! Man I am a total US political junkie.

On to trying to figure out the house and senate...

[david173]

Hey Friends,

Elections often break late, and if the undecideds and soft supporters are moving to Gore (as all political science models have all along said they should), he could be on his way in the battleground states. If there really is Gore momentum out there, as opposed to a Zogby poll quirk, it will likely lead to a Gore victory, confirming political science conventional wisdom.

For a different perspective, though, see www.voter.com, which has Bush up 46-37 nationally and gives 232 solid EVs to Bush (including Tennessee and WV), and leaves Florida, Wisconsin, Oregon, Arkansas, New Mexico, Nevada, Maine, New Hampshire, Delaware, Missouri, Iowa, Pennsylvania undecided. Voter.com gives 207 solid EVs for Gore.

If you concede Bush the 232 EVs assigned by voter.com, then, unless Gore pulls Florida, Gore would have to virtually sweep the remaining states to win, as 232 + 25 would be 257 EVs for Bush and 270 would be readily attainable for the GOP standard bearer by various means.

By contrast, give Florida to Gore and it's 232-232, and given probable Gore edge in Pennsylvania, it looks like Gore has the easier path to 270.

In my opinion, it will come down to Florida.