Get down on Gore now

[Gregg]

Tim,
You are right. When I re-read my post it does come across a bit tacky. However, unlike some other books, I do try to keep my posting within the context of the topic under discussion. I thought that a few of the guys may be interested in our props - and I was right.

Gregg

P.S. Business is booming!!!

[marcus]

Gregg, Thank you for relaying your prop bets on the Presidential election. It was not tacky as I and many others would never have known you had this prop bet at your place(Superbook.com). Gregg can you clarify the prop bet, "Bush to win over 30 states"? Does that mean if he wins exactly 30 states I would lose? Thank you. For the future you should state this type of prop more succinctly. How's this, "Bush to win 31 or more states". That would eliminate any confusion on what happens if Bush wins exactly 30 states.

[whiteboy]

Can someone post the line on Tennessee? thanks

[Gregg]

marcus,
Our prices for 'How many States will George Bush win' have all possible outcomes covered:

Over 30 -110
23-30 +120
Under 23 +600

You choose which one you think will win, all other outcomes would be losers. Therefore if you bet over 30 and he wins 30 this bet would be a loser.
For this event our prices constitute a future 'book' rather than a proposition bet where you either win or lose. Prices are quoted for all eventualities and you make your selection from these - only one can win, the rest are losers.
whiteboy,
To Win the State of Tennessee we have both Gore & Bush a pick at -120 each.

Gregg

[chestrockwells]

You're absolutely right Tim. Your comments in CAPS are oh so humorous. I'm sure that everyone took it that way.

[tim]

GREGG, you're just doing your job. Please don't take my comments personally. There is obviously some interest in these state by state returns. Guess people will bet on just about anything. CHESTROCK, you've given me even more reason to pull for Gore....

[chestrockwells]

Feel free to pull for him all you want,Tim. Unless you plan on rigging the ballot boxes, it won't make a difference.

[bazzer10]

Gregg, I think it is a phenomenonal effort to offer props on these type of areas. I've been looking for something a bit more imaginative than just the winner.

Out of interest, can I ask how you price them? Do you have to get in an outside political expert or pollster, or is one of your sports boys a political junkie in his spare time? I've always wondered how you have such specialist knowledge on this sort of stuff.

CHeers Harry

[intheknow]

I find it sad that some people will give their vote for an office as important as president to either Gore or Bush on the basis of how they feel about Gambling. There are so many more important problems facing the country today. I will vote for Gore because I liked the JOB Clinton did as President and think Al will continue it. I don't give a sh1t about the other personal stuff. Who does the best job... period. It doesn't matter to me if Gore says he going to outlaw all gambling. I'll deal with that if and when it comes.

[Chilly]

Hi,

if you are interested in wagering on this, regardless of your political predispositions, here is some info that I think should help you. I am a political scientist; I teach campaigns and elections, and I stand by these projections. I will also point you to a couple of objective sites that discuss the probabilities of states going either way. Remember, the popular vote is not what counts--its the electoral college votes (e-votes) that determine the outcome (so, popular votes WITHIN a state matter). I predict Bush wins by a plurality of 1% in the popular vote, based on his large lead in many states, but loses in the EC by at least 2 votes. Here's why I think this.....

First, by my calculations, Gore is almost certain to win 11 states totaling 149 e-votes. Bush is almost certain to win 22 states worth 179 e-votes. Next, Gore is slightly leading or likely to win an additional 5 states worth 59 e-votes and Bush is likely to win 3 more worth 25 votes. This puts gore behind 208 to 215, and leaves the following states to allocate: fla (25), iowa (7), maine (4), mich (11), min (10), missouri (11), NM (5), ore (7), Penn (23), w.vg (5).

Based on how states traditionall cast their votes, and that Gore is doing better lately (according to the polling) in most of these states, and the fact that he is of the incumbent party in a booming economy, he is likely to be advantaged and favord by the late-deciders in most of these states where it could affect the outcome. I also expect 25-30% of the Green supporters to defect and vote Gore as well, helping him win Min and ORE.

If I generously give Fla, iowa, maine, missouri, new mex, and w.vg to Bush, that leaves him with 31 states, 272 e-votes, and gore with 20 states [btw, make sure you clarify with the sportsbook how they count DC since it is NOT a state but will go for gore) and 266 electoral votes. Bush wins.

However, if I take away any one of these states, he is a loser, and I think he is not likely to win ore, min, mich, or pa when it comes down it it. Plus, if I take away FLA from Bush, that means he has to replace FLA with two states, best case PA and anything else, or if he cannot win fla or PA, then he must win almost all of the remianing states, including Mich, minn and ore, which I just don't him as able to do. Simply put, if my assumptions are on target, Bush has to win fla and not lose any other state I have allocated to him. If Bush fails to win FLA, he is almost certainly the loser.

If you want to back Bush, keep in mind that he has to win at least 31 states based on the likely e-votes. I'd say Gore is at least a 50 chance of being the winner, and not too much more, though, because Republican turnout is more likely to be higher than democratic turnout in some key states, and Nader backers might not defect enough so that Bush could get one or two more states.

The makeup of the electoral votes should make it clear to everyone, however, that Gore wagers at +110 or better are probably a good bet, and the obscence +150-160 range is WAY OFF.

good luck, and here are a couple of sites you might like to check out:
http://www.campaignline.com//odds/
http://www.state.nd.us/sec/distribut...toralvotes.htm
http://www.electyou.com/electoralmap.htm
http://www.uselectionatlas.org/

Chilly

[BBKing]

Pinnacle has Bush to win the popular vote at -175. I made a little play on it.

I think to win the election he is -150.

[Chilly]

well, my thoughts on the -175 bet are not favorable. It looks like Bush leads by around 2% in most national polls, but remember, the margin of error in these is typically 3.5 or 4%: In other words, we can't be sure who is ahead and by how much, except to say Bush if we polled 100 times, 95 times we would find Bush is either up by as much as 6% or down by as much as 2%. This does not bode well for -175 to win the popular vote given any frontrunner's lead (if bush is indeed leading) shrinks at the end due to the inclusion of undecided voters who typically go 50/50, thus watering down any lead that might exist. I would also guess Gore gains in the polls as he has shown a little momentum lately, and bush is "off-message" with the dui stuff diverting media coverage.

its not like physics, with immutable laws, but -175 seems a bit steep; I'd put a reasonable line at -125 for the pop vote, -105 for the electoral college vote...

Chilly

[BBKing]

somebody liked the -170 on Bush to win the popular vote, it went to -280.

[chestrockwells]

Chilly, needless to say I disagree with your analysis. But instead of going through all that again, I just wanted to point out a few factual errors in your post. At this point Bush is ahead in virtually all the popular vote polls and by anywhere from 3-6,7 8 or even 10%. Not the 2% you stated. Secondly, at this late stage most national polls are no longer done on the scale that allows a 3.5-4% margin of error you suggested but rather closer to 2%. This argument may seem trivial to some readers but you and I both know that 1% represent a lot of people. I understand where you're coming from in your analysis. But if you take the analysis back 2-3 months, there's no reason this is even supposed to be close at this point. Gore should firmly be in control. I think consensus will prevail. Either Bush wins the popular vote and the electoral or he loses them both. But I do admire you for actually going out on a limb with your 1% Bush victory on the popular but loss on the electoral.

[chestrockwells]

FYI, I've heard all kinds of "estimates" from books as to when all this goes off the board........including some "I don't knows". They range from Sunday to last game MNF but no one seemed really sure about this.