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  1. #1
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    Baseball Handicapping - Umpires Pitchers

    SOME FRIENDS OF MINE WITH BIG COMPUTER BACKGROUNDS AND MINIMAL HANDICAPPING SKILLS HAVE ASKED ME WHAT THE FIVE BIGGEST HANDICAPPING FACTORS ARE IN HANDICAPPING BASEBALL.

    THEY ASKED ME TO LIST THE FIVE IN ORDER OF IMPORTANCE AND ASKED ME TO ASSIGN A % VALUE AS TO HOW IMPORTANT % WISE EACH FACTOR IS TO THE HANDICAPPING FORMULA.

    EXAMPLENOT WHAT I ACTAULLY BELIEVE)

    STARTING PITCHING 70%

    BULLPEN L10 DAYS 10%

    BULLPEN OVERALL 5%

    L/R VS.STARTERS 5%

    LINEUPS VS.STARTER 10%

    TOTAL 100%

    I'VE READ SOME EXCELLENT HANDICAPPING POSTS IN THE PAST HERE IN B.W.SO I KNOW THERE ARE SOME GREAT HANDICAPPERS OUT THERE.

    ANY INPUT WOULD BE GREATLY APPRECIATED.

    I EXPECT MY DEAR FRIEND RENO TO BE FIRST UP TO THE PLATE.

    ALL OUR SMALL DIFFERENCES ASIDE FROM READING PROFESSOR RENO'S POSTS ON BASEBALL ,I BELIEVE THIS IS HIS STRONG SUIT...

    THANKS IN ADVANCE FOR YOUR HELP.

    REALITY



    [This message has been edited by REALITY (edited 01-30-2001).]

  2. #2
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    Let's start with these #s and fine tune from here:

    STARTING PITCHING= 45% with exception Pedro, Randy, and any other hurler having career year.

    TEAM OVERALL RATING= 25%

    BULLPEN= 15% availability et al.

    TEAM TREND=10% Streaking either way. L/R etc.

    INTANGIBLES= 5%

    Reality, heading west for vacation. Thanks.

  3. #3
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    Oh, this one really interests me - educate the oddsmakers - NOT.

  4. #4
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    Reality, I know the ANSWER to your questions. I know EXACTLY how much every key factor in baseball is worth. I know exactly how many cents a run is worth in each league. I know exactly how many cents the home field is worth in each league. I know exactly how to make a predicta-score for a game and how to convert it to a moneyline. I hope to find the time to make, what I believe is, an accurate mathematical line on each game (Note: If I find the time, I'll begin making lines probably 30 games into the season.) If I make lines, I plan on providing them for a Don Best book. Also, I'll bet my own picks and have Bettorsworld monitor my selections. If I prove able to pick winners, I'll sell my selections.

    I'm not giving anything away. I've spent thousands of hours doing research. In fact, I just updated my research on NBA and college middling. I know exactly how much every point is worth and how profitable (or unprofitable) every 1.0 point, 1.5 point, and 2.0 point middle attempt at every line has been over the past three seasons.

    Because you have emphatically stated in the forums that I am NOT a wiseguy and that I am a mere pseudo-intellectual, I have zero incentive to provide you with any answers or to educate you about anything pertaining to sportsbetting.

  5. #5
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    RENO,

    I THOUGHT WE HAD REACHED SOME KIND OF TRUCE OR AT LEAST SOME MUTUAL RESPECT FOR EACH OTHER,OBVIOUSLY I WAS WRONG.

    WHEN JEFF FROM B.W.CALLED AND TOLD ME YOU WERE IN A PANIC ABOUT A COMPANY WHOSE COMMUNICATIONS WERE DOWN AND YOU THOUGHT THEY WERE AT THE AIRPORT I GOT OUT OF BED AND GOT DRESSED AND WENT OVER TO THE OFFICE IN QUESTION ON YOUR BEHALF.

    I KNOW JEFF IS COMING OUT YOUR WAY AND YOU MIGHT BE GETTING TOGETHER WITH HIM.

    WHY DON'T YOU ASK HIM ABOUT MY PROFESSIONAL ACCOMPLISHMENTS IN THIS BUSINESS.

    I'M SURE HE WILL TELL YOU ENOUGH ABOUT REALITY THE PERSON.

    I HAVE PAID YOU SOME RESPECT ON MORE THAN ONE OCASSION, AS WELL AS IN THIS THREAD.

    REST ASSURED YOU WILL NEVER SEE A REQUEST OR A REFERENCE TO YOU AGAIN IN ANY OF MY POSTS UNLESS YOU ARE BORED AND INVOKE REALITY'S NAME IN A LESS THAN FLATTERING WAY.

    REALITY

    P.S.

    RONBETS,

    THANKS.

    YOU HAVE AN OPEN INVITATION ANYTIME.

    REALITY

  6. #6
    Hartley Guest
    Another factor to consider that is often overlooked is the home plate umpire. There is no question that some umpires are pitchers umpires and other are hitters umpires. Plus some umpires like to call the low strike and others prefer the high strike.

    This is obviously important for 2 reasons.

    1) If an umpire has a very liberal strike zone the games are generally lower scoring.

    2) If an umpire calls the low strikes and not the high strikes, this will hurt teams whose pitchers have a tendency to keep the ball a little higher in the strike zone and it will hurt batters who like to swing at the lower pitches.

    Someone in this forum used to analyze umpires and it was amazing the discrepency between a hitters umpire and a pitchers umpire.

  7. #7
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    Originally posted by sportshobby:
    Oh, this one really interests me - educate the oddsmakers - NOT.

    THIS IS JUST ANOTHER SET OF COMPUTER GEEKS WHO WANT TO SIT DOWN,DEVISE A FORMULA AND TEST IT ON THE LAST 3 SEASONS FOR FUN.

    THIS HAS NOTHING TO WITH EDUCATING B.M.'S LEAST OF ALL MYSELF.

    I DO MY BASEBALL HANDICAPPING EVERY DAY AS A B.M.

    IT TAKES ME 1 HOUR.

    WHEN I'M DONE I JUST TAKE A LOOK AT THE HOUSES I RESPECT AND COME UP WITH A LINE THAT REFELECTS MY NUMBER.

    IT MUST BE PRETTY GOOD BECAUSE WHERE I WORKED I DEALT A DIME LINE AND HELD 6% FOR TWO CONSECUTIVE SEASONS.

    THAT'S RIGHT 6%.

    JEFF FROM B.W.CAN ATTEST TO THAT FACT.

    THE DEVIL FROM ACROSS THE STREET CAN ATTEST TO THAT FACT.

    SPIRO FROM OLYMPIC CAN ATTEST TO THAT FACT.

    SO REST ASSURED I WAS NOT "BEARDING",FOR MYSELF WHEN I ASKED FOR SOME OPINIONS IN THIS FORUM.

    REALITY

  8. #8
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    HARTLEY,

    THE UMPIRES CHART IS ESPECIALLY IMPORTANT TO CONSIDER WHEN HANDICAPPING TOTALS.

    REALITY

  9. #9
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    Reality, at this point I have no problem with you and actually consider you to be an entertaining addition to the posting forums.
    You are obviously a high-integrity guy who is extremely loyal to your friends. And I respect you for that.

    However, based on various inaccurate and derogatory statements you have made about me and my sportsbetting style and acumen, why would I want to provide you with any specific handicapping information?

  10. #10
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    FOR THE SAME REASONS I PUT ASIDE YOUR LESS THAN FLATTERING REMARKS ABOUT ME.

    I THOUGHT WE WERE BEYOND THAT I WAS OBVIOUSLY WRONG.

    REALITY


  11. #11
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    RENO,

    THIS IS RESPECT:

    "ALL OUR SMALL DIFFERENCES ASIDE FROM READING PROFESSOR RENO'S POSTS ON BASEBALL ,I BELIEVE THIS IS HIS STRONG SUIT..."

    THIS IS DISRESPECT:

    "Reality, at this point I have no problem with you and actually consider you to be an entertaining addition to the posting forums."

    I'M ENTERTAINING?

    NOT KNOWLEDGABLE?

    NOT INFORMATIVE?

    ENTERTAINING.

    WELL HAVE SOME REAL ENTERTAINMENT IF YOU CAN STAND THE REALITY OF THE SITUATION.

    GO OUT WITH JEFF,HAVE A FEW DRINKS,AND THEN ASK HIM,OFF THE RECORD IS REALITY THE REAL DEAL OR REALLY FULL OF S-H-I-T AND SEE WHAT HE TELLS YOU.

    THAT'S ENTERTAINMENT!

    REALITY



  12. #12
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    Feb 2000
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    687
    We're talking generics here. The man(Reality) is trying to stimulate discussion. Baseball has very few secrets left. It's like that frog in biology class. Maybe some of you guys are trying to flatter yourselves.

    That "Serious Middling ?" post was something else though. The poster "Bigdan" wanted you to attend his classes and guarantee the final exam w/o opinions. That's a different story folks.


    Hartley, during BB season I gladly will email you my list of O/U Umpires.

  13. #13
    AussieVamp2 Guest
    the cube root of a double exponentially smoothed time series of the last 20 games average runs for, that a possibility?

  14. #14
    Join Date
    Jan 2001
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    You know you two ( reno and reality) sound like two girls fighting and arguing. One is saying. Look at me im so smart, i can handicap baseball games. My a** you can! Reality, you are probably down so much in your life in gambling, its not funny. You sound so insecure with your life. No one but no one should ever say I'm winning just ask Jeff, you'll see. Just right there i could tell you're not a winner in gambling, lifetime, because if you were you would not brag like that. And why would reno want to give away his secret if he really does well for himself. He's not stupid. Telling other people his work, could jeopardize himself in the long run. So reality, GET A LIFE!

  15. #15
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    ASS ROTHSTEIN,

    I'M A B.M.,ONE OF THE BETTER ONES AND IN TERMS OF WIN% AND NET WIN ONE OF THE MOST SUCCESSFUL.

    I DIDN'T ASK RENO FOR THE COLONELS SECRET RECIPE OF 11 HERBS AND SPICES,I JUST ASKED IN HIS OPINION WHAT ARE THE FIVE MOST IMPORTANT CATEGORIES IN BASEBALL HANDICAPPING .

    IF THAT INFORMATION IS ENOUGH FOR SOMEONE TO KNOCK THE POKER PLAYERS OFF THE TOP OF THE MOUNTAIN,THEN PLEASE ACCEPT MY SINCEREST APOLOGY FOR THE ATTEMPTED SECURITY BREACH.

    SPEAKING OF SECURITY BREACH ,WHAT GUTLESS WONDER ARE YOU TOO SCARED TO POST UNDER YOUR MORE WELL KNOWN POSTING NAME HERE AT BW?

    YOU JUST DECIDED IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT TO JUST SIGN UP AND BECOME A MEMBER OF THE REALITY FAN CLUB.

    OH YEAH...

    Profile for Ace Rothstein
    Search: All posts by this registered user.


    Date Registered: 01-31-2001
    Status: Junior Member
    Total Posts: 1
    Current Email: Not available.
    Homepage: http://
    Occupation: gambler
    Location: canada
    Interests: gambling


    NEXT!

    REALITY






  16. #16
    Join Date
    Jan 2001
    Posts
    2
    Hi everyone my name is Reality. I'm a very successful bettor and i make alot of money. I am also one of the most successful BM'S this industry has ever seen. I know so much because im so smart. I'm smarter than you and all your friends put together. Just ask my friend Jeff.W, he'll tell you im not lying. I have no self esteem and i say this because I have lost so much money in my lifetime and i dont want to admit to that fact. This way my wife wont leave me and she'll think i'm a real man. That's why I only write in caps.

    Thanks

    Reality

    Thats how you sound Reality.

    [This message has been edited by Ace Rothstein (edited 01-31-2001).]

  17. #17
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    Apr 2000
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    ASS ROTHSTEIN,

    YOU NEED TO DO THREE THINGS:

    1.REVEAL YOUR TRUE IDENTITY,IT WILL HELP YOU GET OVER YOUR FEARS AND HOSTILITY.

    2.GET A LIFE,JOINING THE REALITY FAN CLUB IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT IS NOT THE WAY TO GO THROUGH LIFE SON.

    3.GET SOME HELP,SOME VERY PROFESSIONAL HELP...

    YOUR IDOL,

    REALITY

    P.S.

    REALITY DOSEN'T MIND HAVING FANS,BUT HE DRAWS THE LINE AT STALKERS.

    BE CAREFUL...

  18. #18
    Join Date
    Nov 2000
    Posts
    39
    Reality,

    I have made aliving off baseball for the past couple of years.
    Starting pitchers 55%
    Whos hot whos not 15%
    bull pen 10%
    line ups vs starter 10%

  19. #19
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    Apr 2000
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    A-TRAIN,

    YOU LEAVING OUT 10% FOR INTANGIBLES?

    REALITY

  20. #20
    Join Date
    May 2000
    Posts
    84
    to Reality:

    All you need to do is follow me around during the baseball season. When I bet the chalk $10,000,000 starter....play the other side cause he's gonna give up 7 runs in the first. When I play the dog....jump on the other side because my relief pitchers are going to give up 6 or seven runs in the 9th inning. It's like clockwork. You'll be smiling like a butchers dog after a couple of months.

  21. #21
    Join Date
    Jun 2000
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    251
    Yankees Suck.Yankees Suck.THEEEEEE Yankees Suck.

  22. #22
    Join Date
    Jan 2001
    Posts
    1
    I THOUGHT THIS BOARD WAS SUPPOSED TO HELP EACH OTHER.THE MAN ASKS A VERY GOOD QUESTION AND PEOPLE DUMP ON HIM?????WHY WOULD ANYBODY EVEN NEED THESE FORUMS IF THEY HAD THESE SUPER GREAT ,SUPER SECRET SYSTEMS.I DONT KNOW THE HISTORY OF YOUR RELATIONSHIP WITH EACH OTHER BUT THERE ARE ALOT OF PEOPLE OUT THERE WHO WOULD LOVE TO LEARN HOW EVERYBODY APPROACHES THE ART OF HANDICAPPING.REALITY KEEP ASKING THESE QUESTIONS AS I FEEL THERE ARE ALOT OF PEOPLE LIKE ME WHO ARE STUDENTS OF THE GAME AND WANT TO KNOW HOW TO BECOME BETTER HANDICAPPERS.I AM NEW TO BETTING SO I RELY ON BOARDS LIKE THESE TO LEARN.THANK YOU

  23. #23
    Join Date
    Feb 1999
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    11
    What's with all the CAPITOL letter SHOUTING?

  24. #24
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    Danny, even though I think of this as a player's forum, there may be as many readers on the other side of the counter. So even though there aren't any deep secrets, the prospects of helping the very books that I'm playing make better lines just doesn't excite me.

    It's also off-topic, although there is plenty of that anyway.

  25. #25
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    Apr 2000
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    GENTLEMAN,

    LIKE I STATED BEFORE IF ANYONE THINKS THAT LISTING THEIR PERSONAL 5 MOST IMPORTANT HANDICAPPING FACTORS AND THE % OF IMPORTANCE THEY FEEL IT REFLECTS IN THEIR HANDICAPPING FORMULA IS ENOUGH TO KNOCK THE POKERS OFF THEIR THRONE,I HAVE SOME BEAUTIFUL VACATION PROPERTY IN FLORIDA FOR SALE THAT'S A LITTLE WET NOW BUT WHEN IT DRIES UP THE VALUE WILL GO THROUGH THE ROOF.

    SPORTSHOBBY,

    CAN YOU EXPLAIN WHY THIS IS AN OFF TOPIC?

    REALITY

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