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  1. #26
    Join Date
    Oct 1999
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    Its amazing how an interesting post can go south so quick. Lets get back to the question.

    For those of us who have been around this board, we all know Reality and Reno bring a wealth of info to the table. And to me thats the bottom line.

    Now back to the question.

    BTH

  2. #27
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    Apr 2000
    Posts
    1,765
    BTH, you're right. I'm looking forward to anything those two want to write on any topic.

  3. #28
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    Sep 2000
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    33
    What a wierd thread.

    First, we have Mr. Reality posting a Q for some computer dudes about bases. In another thread, R has mentioned that he is building an offshore "establishment" and from other posts, we find he is a long time BM. Then he posts up some bogus %'s asking Reno to help him out. To which Reno tells him to take a long skateboard trip off a short pier.

    Now, why is a "former" BM asking a middler for baseball factors? And if his computer boys are aren't just a pack of blithering idiots, why can't they get a db and figure it out themselves? Don't they know any Stat?

    This thread just doesn't "add up."

  4. #29
    Join Date
    Apr 2000
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    1,765
    Geek, there are a lot of really smart individuals who are willing to give out anything they know. So a leading question like this can possibly lead to all sorts of inputs which might be useful to the oddsmaker. Even if the poster is wrong in what he submits, the idea he writes about can be useful.

    To simply answer the question posed (what percent is each category worth) would be harmless. But there's always some smart-a$$ who wants to impress the world with his handicapping ability, and he goes on and on.

    I say the less the linesmakers know, the better.

  5. #30
    Join Date
    Apr 2000
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    1,005
    Originally posted by Geekinstein:
    What a wierd thread.

    First, we have Mr. Reality posting a Q for some computer dudes about bases. In another thread, R has mentioned that he is building an offshore "establishment" and from other posts, we find he is a long time BM. Then he posts up some bogus %'s asking Reno to help him out. To which Reno tells him to take a long skateboard trip off a short pier.

    GEEK,

    I NEVER SAID ANYWHERE I WAS BULIDING AN OFFSHORE ESTABLISMENT.

    I SAID I WAS IN BIDDING ON A LAND BASED CASINO.

    GAMING TABLES,SLOT MACHINES,ETC.

    THIS IS THE QUOTE YOU ARE REFERING TO:

    "I'M IN THE PROCESS OF BIDING ON A CASINO IN A TROPICAL PARADISE.

    IF I'M SUCESSFUL IN THIS ACQUISITION MAYBE WE CAN HAVE A FIELD TRIP WITH THE POSTERS FROM HERE AND ACROSS THE STREET AND WE CAN IRON OUT OUR DIFFERENCES OVER SOME PINA COLADAS."

    THE PERCENTAGES AS POSTED WAS MERELY AN EXAMPLE AND SO DESIGNATED AS SUCH AS AN OUTLINE FOR ANYBODY WHO WISHED TO OFFER AN OPINION.

    IT SPECIFICALLY SAYS:

    EXAMPLENOT WHAT I ACTUALLY BELIEVE)

    STARTING PITCHING 70%

    BULLPEN L10 DAYS 10%

    BULLPEN OVERALL 5%

    L/R VS.STARTERS 5%

    LINEUPS VS.STARTER 10%

    TOTAL 100%

    YOU BETTER TAKE SOME READING COMPREHENSION CLASSES.


    Now, why is a "former" BM asking a middler for baseball factors?

    AS A FAVOR TO SOME FRIENDS OF MINE WHO WANT TO WRITE AND TEST A BASEBALL PROGRAM.

    And if his computer boys are aren't just a pack of blithering idiots, why can't they get a db and figure it out themselves?

    Don't they know any Stat?

    This thread just doesn't "add up."
    WHAT CONSPIRACY THEORY ARE YOU PUTTING FORTH AND WHAT EXACTLY IS YOUR PROBLEM?

    REALITY



    [This message has been edited by REALITY (edited 02-02-2001).]

  6. #31
    Join Date
    Sep 2000
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    33
    Well, Mister REALITY, I write computer programs. And I'm certainly capable of performing a factor analysis to see which are the most important even if it is a sport I know nothing about.

    If the toads you've grouped up can't do that, they'll do fine in this biz. However, I have seen how well the BMs have done this NFL year so maybe you guys ought to toss out the old crowd and get in some new programming blood. Can't beat college, tough time in bases & BB, and now your cash cow, Pro Foots are in the sink?

    ...poor babies!


  7. #32
    AussieVamp2 Guest
    prefer Scotch, Black Russians and even Long Island Ice Teas if getting rash to pina coladas

  8. #33
    Join Date
    Sep 2000
    Posts
    33
    Aussie: As you know, us Geeks prefer Jolt Cola...with perhaps a bit of Bacardi when it gets late!

  9. #34
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    Apr 2000
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    Originally posted by Geekinstein:
    Well, Mister REALITY, I write computer programs. And I'm certainly capable of performing a factor analysis to see which are the most important even if it is a sport I know nothing about.

    If the toads you've grouped up can't do that, they'll do fine in this biz. However, I have seen how well the BMs have done this NFL year so maybe you guys ought to toss out the old crowd and get in some new programming blood. Can't beat college, tough time in bases & BB, and now your cash cow, Pro Foots are in the sink?

    ...poor babies!

    GEEK,

    THESE ARE GUYS I WENT TO COLLEGE WITH THAT ARE LOOKING FOR AN EXCUSE TO GET OUT OF THE HOUSE A FEW NIGHTS A WEEK.

    THEY ARE NOT LOOKING TO KNOCK THE POKERS OFF THE MOUNTAIN.

    WHEN WE PLAY 1-2-3 POKER THEY CRY FOR A WEEK IF ONE OF THEM SHOULD GOD FORBID DROP A $100...

    REALITY



  10. #35
    Join Date
    Sep 2000
    Posts
    33
    Reality: Having modeled all 4 major sports:
    Foots, BB, pucks, and MLB, I find MLB the hardest sport to write models against that in fact can consistantly beat the line. Way too many factors to get right, data coming at you every day, changing lineups, weather patterns (chicago extreme example), etc, etc. If these guys are trying to just stay out of the house, fine, they can throw some hash together in bases, but they'll get farther in foots where they have a week to get the data right and number of driving factors not as many as bases.

    That said, if they cry over $100, they might as well model tic-tac-toe.

  11. #36
    Join Date
    Mar 1999
    Posts
    1,596
    Just for the record, on January 26, in another watchdog forum, Reality labeled me as a "wannabe wiseguy." Now, he has every right to label me as that if he so pleases. But to first insult me by calling me a "wannabe wiseguy,"--a derogatory sportsbetting term if there ever was one--and then to have the gall to kiss up to me in this forum and ask for my opinion on handicapping baseball, well, I just wanted to explain why I refused to provide him with any handicapping information.

    In fact, I'm still so psychically traumatized from being labled as a "wannabe wiseguy" and having my sterling reputation publicly sullied, I think I'll need an extra half-dozen sessions with "the Shrink" to get my head straight. If Reality were a true gentleman, as he claims to be, he'd offer to pay for my forthcoming sessions with "the Shrink." Or, in lieu of that, he'd offer to pay for my first 6 sex sessions in the Philippines--in the hopes that the sex will prove therapeutic and thereby restore my sportsbetting self-esteem.

  12. #37
    Join Date
    Sep 2000
    Posts
    33
    Reno, since Reality is a wanna-be BM, I think that is reason enough not to post any 'capping info on bases or anything else.

    And even if he were not, who knows what other "sharks" swim thru this fish tank?

    As you once said, you're not in the biz of educating the competition...and certainly I'm not either as I would certainly like to see another few years like the last three; at least in the NFL.

    My condolences on your trauma.

  13. #38
    Join Date
    Apr 2000
    Posts
    1,005
    RENO,

    DON'T EVER FLATTER YOURSELF THAT I WOULD "KISS UP" TO YOU.

    THAT COULD NEVER HAPPEN.

    IT IS MY PERSONAL LIFE EXPERIENCE THAT WHEN TWO INDIVIDUALS HAVE A CONFRONTATION,AFTER IT'S OVER THERE IS A CERTAIN AMOUNT OF RESPECT BORN OUT OF THE EVENT FOR THE TWO PARTICIPANTS.

    I THOUGHT THAT WAS THE CASE IN REGARDS TO THE GREAT RENO/REALITY DEBATES OF THE PAST.

    I WAS OBVIOUSLY WRONG.

    WHEN I MADE THE FOLLWING OVERTURE:

    "I EXPECT MY DEAR FRIEND RENO TO BE FIRST UP TO THE PLATE."

    "ALL OUR SMALL DIFFERENCES ASIDE FROM READING PROFESSOR RENO'S POSTS ON BASEBALL ,I BELIEVE THIS IS HIS STRONG SUIT..."

    IT WAS A SINCERE COMMENT ON WHAT I BELIEVE HIS STRONG POINT IS FROM HIS POSTS.

    IT WAS AN EXTENSION OF THE MUTUAL RESPECT I THOUGHT WE HAD ARRIVED AT.

    RENO AS USUAL POSTS WHAT SUITS HIS ARGUMENT:

    reno
    Member posted 02-03-2001 05:05 PM
    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Just for the record, on January 26, in another watchdog forum, Reality labeled me as a "wannabe wiseguy".

    PLEASE NOTE THE TIME AND DATE OF THIS POST:

    reno
    Officer
    Posts: 201
    Registered: Oct 2000
    posted 01-24-2001 06:01 PM
    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Heath, why do we need a real, live practicing BM in this forum? What's wrong with ex-BMs like Reality, Doggie Style, and the Devil himself?

    I HAVE A LITTLE REPUTATION FOR NOT LETTING ANYTHING PASS SO I CAME BACK WITH THIS RESPONSE:

    Author Topic: LET THE WORD GO FORTH FROM THIS DAY ON...
    REALITY
    Officer
    Posts: 465
    Registered: Jul 2000
    posted 01-24-2001 06:36 PM
    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    REALITY
    Officer
    Posts: 429
    Registered: Jul 2000
    posted 01-24-2001 06:23 PM
    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    quote:
    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Originally posted by reno:
    Heath, why do we need a real, live practicing BM in this forum? What's wrong with ex-BMs like Reality, Doggie Style, and the Devil himself?
    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    HEATH,

    WE DON'T NEED ANY REAL LIVE PRACTICING ORIGINATORS EITHER.

    WE HAVE WANNABE WISEGUYS,LIKE RENO,CRUSADER,AND THE MAJOR HIMSELF?

    REALITY

    RENO POSTED AT 6:01 P.M.

    REALITY RESPONDED AT 6:36 P.M.

    RENO STARTS 95% OF THESE PISSING MATCHES.

    REALITY FINISHES 100% OF THEM.

    I PAID YOU A LITTLE RESPECT WITH MY OVERTURE.

    RESPECT WHICH I NOW KNOW YOU DIDN'T DESERVE.

    REALITY
    Member posted 01-31-2001 12:08 AM
    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    RENO,
    THIS IS RESPECT:

    "ALL OUR SMALL DIFFERENCES ASIDE FROM READING PROFESSOR RENO'S POSTS ON BASEBALL ,I BELIEVE THIS IS HIS STRONG SUIT..."

    THIS IS DISRESPECT:

    "Reality, at this point I have no problem with you and actually consider you to be an entertaining addition to the posting forums."

    I'M ENTERTAINING?

    NOT KNOWLEDGABLE?

    NOT INFORMATIVE?

    ENTERTAINING.

    WELL HAVE SOME REAL ENTERTAINMENT IF YOU CAN STAND THE REALITY OF THE SITUATION.

    GO OUT WITH JEFF,HAVE A FEW DRINKS,AND THEN ASK HIM,OFF THE RECORD IS REALITY THE REAL DEAL OR REALLY FULL OF S-H-I-T AND SEE WHAT HE TELLS YOU.

    THAT'S ENTERTAINMENT!

    REALITY

    RENO,LETS JUST STAY OUT OF EACH OTHERS WAY BECAUSE AS G.GORDON LIDDY ONCE SAID:

    "IN A BATTLE OF WITS YOU ARE UNARMED"

    REALITY





  14. #39
    AussieVamp2 Guest
    you are a multivariate Geek then Geek?

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